The US economic calendar for Thursday, December 11, 2025, delivered a dense mix of labor, trade, housing and services data—just one day after the Federal Reserve’s third straight quarter‑point rate cut and an explicit signal that policymakers are likely to pause. [1]
Weekly jobless claims climbed sharply, the trade deficit narrowed more than expected, wholesale inventories surprised to the upside, vacancy and homeownership figures showed a still‑tight housing market, and a long‑delayed state unemployment report finally arrived. At the same time, several key inflation and flow‑of‑funds releases remain postponed because of this year’s government shutdown, leaving investors to navigate what Fed officials themselves have called a period of “data darkness.” [2]
At a glance: today’s major US economic releases (ET time)
8:30 a.m.
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Dec. 6)
- Continuing Jobless Claims
- U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, September 2025
- Producer Price Index (PPI), November 2025 – rescheduled to Jan. 14, 2026 due to the shutdown, no data today [3]
10:00 a.m.
- State Employment and Unemployment – September 2025 (BLS) [4]
- Housing Vacancies and Homeownership – Q3 2025 (Census) [5]
- Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories – September 2025 (Census) [6]
- Quarterly Services Survey – Q3 2025 (Census) [7]
10:30 a.m.
- Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (EIA) [8]
3:30 p.m.
- Federal Reserve balance sheet – H.4.1 “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances” [9]
Delayed from today
- Financial Accounts of the United States (Z.1), Q3 2025 – moved from Dec. 11 to Jan. 9, 2026
- PPI (October & November 2025) – now both set for mid‑January 2026 [10]
Against this backdrop, here’s what the numbers actually said—and how markets are reacting.
Labor market snapshot: jobless claims jump, state unemployment edges higher
Weekly jobless claims: big headline rise, softer signal underneath
The most market‑sensitive release of the morning was the Labor Department’s weekly jobless claims report:
- Initial claims rose by 44,000 to 236,000, rebounding from an unusually low 192,000 the prior week.
- Economists had expected roughly 220,000, so the increase overshot consensus.
- The four‑week moving average—a smoother trend gauge—ticked up only slightly, to about 216,750.
- Continuing claims fell by 99,000 to 1.838 million, reversing some of the prior run‑up in people remaining on benefits. [11]
Both government officials and private analysts stressed that the spike is largely a seasonal adjustment story, not evidence of a sudden wave of layoffs. Holiday timing and the earlier Thanksgiving distorted week‑to‑week comparisons, a point echoed in trading‑desk commentary and OANDA’s intraday equity wrap, which described claims as “regaining their path higher at 236K vs 220K expected” after the prior week’s anomalous dip. [12]
For markets, the takeaway is nuanced:
- Claims are no longer at ultra‑low levels, confirming the gradual cooling seen since late summer.
- But with continuing claims falling and levels still historically moderate, the data do not yet signal a hard‑landing labor shock.
That matters for the Fed: a modestly softer jobs market supports the case for the three rate cuts already delivered—but does not, on its own, force policymakers into further rapid easing.
State Employment and Unemployment: wide state differences, national rate at 4.4%
At 10:00 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics finally published the September 2025 State Employment and Unemployment report, delayed more than six weeks by the funding lapse. [13]
Key highlights:
- The national unemployment rate was 4.4% in September—little changed on the month, but 0.3 percentage point higher than a year earlier. [14]
- South Dakota had the lowest jobless rate at 2.0%, while the District of Columbia was highest at 6.2%, followed by California at 5.6%.
- Compared with August, unemployment rose in 8 states, fell in 2, and was statistically unchanged in 40 states plus DC. Over the year, 18 states and DC saw higher jobless rates, 9 saw declines, and 23 were broadly flat.
- Payroll employment changed little at the state level: only Missouri posted a notable gain and New York a notable decline, while 48 states were essentially unchanged.
The report explicitly flags the government shutdown as the reason for the delay but notes that September survey collection was largely completed beforehand, meaning the data quality is considered solid even if late. [15]
Market implication: The state data reinforce the story told by weekly claims: the labor market is loosening at the margin, especially over the past year, but remains far from recessionary. That’s consistent with the Fed’s view that policy can now pause without needing to pivot to aggressive stimulus—unless incoming data weaken more sharply.
Trade and inventories: a smaller deficit, fuller warehouses
Trade deficit: a surprise narrowing supports Q3 GDP
The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to about $52.8 billion in September, from a revised $59.3 billion in August—its smallest gap since early 2020, and far better than economists’ expectations for a wider deficit near $63–65 billion. [16]
Drivers behind the improvement:
- Exports jumped roughly 3% to about $289 billion, helped by strong shipments of industrial supplies, capital goods, and services.
- Imports rose only around 0.6%, as consumer goods and autos were comparatively subdued. [17]
Several analysts noted that the stronger net exports will boost revisions to Q3 GDP, partially offsetting the drag from earlier inventory adjustments and the shutdown‑related data delays. [18]
Wholesale inventories: a 0.5% jump
Alongside trade, the Census Bureau’s Monthly Wholesale Trade report showed that wholesale inventories rose 0.5% in September after a 0.1% decline in August, beating expectations for only a small rebound. [19]
- Inventories of nondurable goods (like chemicals and petroleum products) led the increase.
- The inventory‑to‑sales ratio climbed to about 1.29, suggesting wholesalers are carrying somewhat more stock relative to demand. [20]
In terms of market impact:
- Stronger inventories can add to GDP in the short run, but if demand slows, rising stockpiles may pressure margins and trigger production cuts later.
- For equity investors, that tension feeds into the ongoing debate between “soft landing” optimists and those who fear a more pronounced slowdown in 2026.
Quarterly Services Survey: quiet but important for GDP
The Q3 2025 Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) was released as scheduled, providing updated revenue estimates across key service industries such as information, professional and technical services, and administrative support. [21]
While headline numbers are still filtering through data providers, the QSS is critical for the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which uses it to refine GDP estimates, particularly on the services side that dominates US economic output. For markets, today’s release is more of a quiet background input than a front‑page driver, but it will influence the next round of growth revisions.
Housing Vacancies and Homeownership: tight supply, stable ownership
Housing got its own spotlight at 10:00 a.m. with the Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q3 2025. [22]
Headline findings from the Census Bureau:
- Rental vacancy rate: 7.1%, statistically little changed from 6.9% a year earlier and 7.0% in Q2 2025.
- Homeowner vacancy rate: 1.2%, slightly higher than 1.0% in Q3 2024 and 1.1% in Q2 2025, but still historically low.
- Homeownership rate: 65.3%, not significantly different from 65.6% a year earlier or 65.0% in the prior quarter. [23]
What that means:
- Vacancy rates remain tight by long‑run standards, pointing to ongoing supply constraints in both rental and owner‑occupied markets.
- The slight uptick in homeowner vacancies may hint at marginally softer demand or greater churn, but not a broad housing slump.
- For the Fed, still‑constrained housing supply helps keep shelter inflation sticky, even as overall inflation has come off its 2022–23 peaks.
Real‑estate–focused analysts note that such vacancy levels typically support firm rents and prices, particularly in high‑demand metros—even if the pace of appreciation is slower than during the pandemic boom. [24]
Energy and the Fed’s balance sheet: background movers
Natural gas storage
The Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report and the associated Storage Dashboardupdate today at 10:30 a.m. Eastern. These releases provide context for winter heating demand and futures pricing. [25]
While natural gas has been trading with its own weather‑ and supply‑driven volatility, today’s storage figures are more important for energy and utilities stocks than for the broader indices—though large moves in gas prices can spill over into inflation expectations if sustained.
Fed balance sheet: H.4.1 at 3:30 p.m.
At 3:30 p.m., the Federal Reserve publishes its weekly H.4.1 “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances” release, effectively an update on the central bank’s balance sheet size and composition. [26]
Given the Fed’s recent rate cuts and the lingering impact of quantitative tightening, traders will scan the tables for signs of:
- Changes in reserve balances held by banks.
- The pace of balance‑sheet runoff in Treasuries and MBS.
- Any unusual shifts in liquidity programs.
For equity markets, H.4.1 is a second‑order driver, but for rate strategists and macro funds it remains a key ingredient in views on dollar liquidity and long‑term yields. [27]
Fed backdrop: three cuts in, and now a pause in “data darkness”
All of today’s data land in the shadow of yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision, where policymakers delivered their third consecutive 25‑basis‑point rate cut while signaling they are likely to pause unless the economy weakens more than expected. [28]
Several features stand out in coverage of the decision:
- The Fed openly acknowledged that the government shutdown has delayed key releases, making it harder than usual to read the economy. [29]
- Inflation has cooled but remains above target, especially in services and shelter.
- Growth is slowing from 2024’s robust pace but has not yet rolled over into contraction.
Commentary from banks and asset managers quoted by Reuters and Barron’s emphasizes that the Fed’s forward guidance is unusually uncertain: officials themselves “know less than usual about the current state of the economy” because of delayed statistics, and leadership changes in 2026 may alter the reaction function again. [30]
Today’s calendar, then, is part of an effort to gradually refill the data pipeline—with the notable exception of PPI, CPI October data, and the Z.1 flow‑of‑funds report, which will arrive only in mid‑January. [31]
How markets are trading today
Stock‑market reaction to the day’s releases has been shaped as much by sector rotation and earnings as by the macro data themselves:
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average pushed to new record intraday highs, helped by financials, industrials, and defensive names that tend to benefit from lower rates and a steeper yield curve. [32]
- The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 have been under pressure, weighed down by a sharp drop in Oracle and broader concerns that AI‑related spending may not translate into near‑term profits. [33]
- OANDA’s intraday wrap and other desk commentary describe a rotation out of mega‑cap tech and into more traditional, rate‑sensitive sectors, with the Dow “extending its lead” while Nasdaq struggles. [34]
Indices remain not far from record territory overall: S&P 500 data from exchanges show the benchmark hovering in the 6,800–6,900 range, consolidating gains made ahead of the Fed decision. [35]
For many strategists, today’s mix of data—softer but not weak jobs, a smaller trade deficit, firm housing, and no fresh inflation shock—fits the narrative of a still‑plausible soft landing, albeit with higher risks at the margin as the labor market cools and corporate earnings in some tech names disappoint. [36]
What to watch next
For investors focusing on the US stock market, today’s calendar sets the stage for several upcoming events:
- Dec. 16, 2025 – Employment Situation (November): the first full national jobs report after the shutdown, rescheduled from Dec. 5. [37]
- Dec. 18, 2025 – CPI and Real Earnings (November): crucial for gauging whether inflation is continuing to trend lower despite the missing October data. [38]
- January 2026 – PPI, Import/Export prices and Z.1: a backlog of price and balance‑sheet data that will give a fuller picture of inflation pressures and financial‑system leverage. [39]
Until those arrive, markets are likely to lean heavily on high‑frequency releases like weekly claims, as well as earnings and forward guidance from corporates, to infer the true state of the economy.
Key takeaways for traders and investors today
- Jobless claims jumped to 236,000, but seasonal quirks and falling continuing claims mean the labor market looks cooler, not collapsing. [40]
- The September trade deficit narrowed to about $52.8 billion and wholesale inventories climbed 0.5%, supporting Q3 GDP but raising questions about future demand. [41]
- Housing vacancy and homeownership data point to tight supply and steady ownership rates, a combination that keeps shelter inflation sticky even as overall price pressures ease. [42]
- State‑level unemployment data show a gentle uptrend in jobless rates across many states, aligning with the Fed’s narrative of a cooling but still‑resilient labor market. [43]
- With PPI, some CPI data, and the Fed’s flow‑of‑funds report still delayed, markets remain in a partial “data fog”—making each incremental release, like today’s claims and trade numbers, disproportionately important for sentiment. [44]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.bls.gov, 3. fred.stlouisfed.org, 4. www.bls.gov, 5. www.census.gov, 6. www.census.gov, 7. www.census.gov, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. fred.stlouisfed.org, 10. www.federalreserve.gov, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.marketpulse.com, 13. www.bls.gov, 14. www.bls.gov, 15. www.bls.gov, 16. forex.tradingcharts.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. forex.tradingcharts.com, 20. forex.tradingcharts.com, 21. www.census.gov, 22. www.census.gov, 23. www.census.gov, 24. www.altusgroup.com, 25. www.eia.gov, 26. fred.stlouisfed.org, 27. www.cmegroup.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.bls.gov, 32. www.marketpulse.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.marketpulse.com, 35. finance.yahoo.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.bls.gov, 38. www.bls.gov, 39. www.bls.gov, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. forex.tradingcharts.com, 42. www.census.gov, 43. www.bls.gov, 44. www.bls.gov
