Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock After Hours on December 11, 2025: Retatrutide Breakthrough, $6B Plant — and What to Watch Before Friday’s Open

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) ended Thursday’s session back near record territory as Wall Street digested stunning new weight‑loss data from its experimental obesity drug retatrutide, a massive new U.S. manufacturing investment, and fresh signs of global expansion for its GLP‑1 franchise.

As of Thursday’s close, Eli Lilly shares were trading around $1,006, up roughly 1–1.5% on the day, after swinging between an intraday high above $1,030 and a low just under $990. ^[1] Late in the session and into after‑hours trading, the stock hovered slightly above the close near $1,009, according to real‑time data. The move leaves LLY only a few percentage points below its recent all‑time high around $1,110 and up more than 30% year‑to‑date, even after a sharp pullback in late November. ^[2]

With markets set to reopen on Friday, December 12, 2025, here’s what happened “after the bell” and what traders and longer‑term investors should focus on before the next opening print.

Key Takeaways for Friday’s Open

• Retatrutide delivered best‑in‑class weight loss in a Phase 3 study of patients with obesity and knee osteoarthritis, with top‑dose patients losing up to 28.7% of body weight over 68 weeks, and showing major reductions in pain and improved function. ^[3]
• Tolerability and drop‑outs matter: gastrointestinal side effects and cases of “excessive” weight loss led to nearly one in five patients discontinuing treatment, a key risk point analysts are watching. ^[4]
• LLY invested more than $6 billion in a new Huntsville, Alabama plant to make active pharmaceutical ingredients (including GLP‑1 and oral obesity drugs), part of a broader $27 billion U.S. manufacturing build‑out and the largest initial industrial investment in Alabama’s history. ^[5]
• Mounjaro wins key reimbursement in China: starting January 1, the diabetes version of tirzepatide will be covered by China’s national health insurance, potentially boosting volume while tightening pricing. ^[6]
• Fundamentals remain extremely strong: Q3 2025 revenue jumped 54% to $17.6 billion, driven mainly by Mounjaro and Zepbound. Full‑year 2025 revenue guidance was raised to $63.0–$63.5 billion, with non‑GAAP EPS guidance lifted to $23.00–$23.70. ^[7]
• Shareholder returns are rising too: the board declared a $1.73 per share dividend for Q1 2026 (about a 0.7% yield at recent prices), up from $1.50 previously. ^[8]
• Wall Street still loves LLY—but sees less near‑term upside: the average 12‑month price target sits near $1,000–1,100, with some bulls as high as $1,500 and a low near $706; consensus recommends “Outperform,” but valuation is rich at a forward P/E around 30x, above peers but slightly below Lilly’s own five‑year average multiple. ^[9]
• Macro backdrop is supportive but stretched: the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Thursday, helped by the Federal Reserve’s recent quarter‑point rate cut, while the Nasdaq lagged on tech weakness — a reminder that high‑multiple growth names like LLY can be sensitive to shifts in risk appetite. ^[10]

How Eli Lilly Stock Traded After the Bell

After a volatile session dominated by retatrutide headlines, LLY finished Thursday modestly higher:

• Thursday, Dec. 11, 2025 close: about $1,006
• Intraday range: roughly $987–$1,031
• Volume: around 3.6 million shares, above the recent average as traders reacted to the trial results. ^[11]

Earlier in the day, the stock spiked more than 3% as retatrutide data hit the tape, before cooling into the close to a gain of roughly 1–2%. ^[12] A widely circulated brief from Stock Story noted that after the initial surge, shares “cooled down” to around $1,015, up about 2.3% from the prior close, underscoring that investors saw the data as important but not transformational for near‑term earnings. ^[13]

Despite recent volatility—including a notable stretch of consecutive down days earlier this month—LLY remains:

• Up roughly 30% in 2025, outpacing major indices and most large‑cap pharma peers. ^[14]
• Within single‑digit percentage points of its all‑time high near $1,110. ^[15]

For traders heading into Friday’s open, that backdrop matters: expectations are sky‑high, and each new datapoint is being weighed against an already premium valuation.

Retatrutide: “Super High” Weight Loss, Real‑World Questions

What Thursday’s data showed

Lilly’s headline of the day was updated Phase 3 data for retatrutide, its next‑generation GLP‑1/GIP/glucagon triple agonist:

• In the TRIUMPH‑4 trial in patients with obesity and knee osteoarthritis, the highest dose of retatrutide produced average weight loss of up to 28.7% over 68 weeks, versus low single digits with placebo. ^[16]
• Across the full dosing regimen, patients achieved roughly mid‑20% average weight loss, with many moving out of the obesity BMI range entirely. ^[17]
• Importantly for this specific patient population, knee pain scores and physical function improved markedly, with some patients effectively pain‑free by the end of the study. ^[18]

Analysts at outlets like Investors Business Daily and the Financial Times characterized retatrutide’s efficacy as placing it in a “super‑high weight‑loss” category, exceeding even Lilly’s own tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) and Novo Nordisk’s current semaglutide‑based therapies. ^[19]

Safety and tolerability: the fine print

The bullish efficacy story is being balanced against real‑world safety and tolerability questions:

• Gastrointestinal side effects (nausea, vomiting, diarrhea) were common, broadly in line with or somewhat higher than current GLP‑1 drugs. ^[20]
• About 18% of patients discontinued treatment, with a subset stopping due to what investigators called “excessive” weight loss, according to trial details reported by STAT and others. ^[21]

That dropout rate doesn’t kill the retatrutide story, but it does shape how investors think about:

• Label language and warnings regulators might require.
• Whether retatrutide becomes a first‑line drug, a “rescue” option for the most severe cases, or is reserved for specific subgroups.
• How payers will view risk‑benefit versus cheaper and slightly less potent incumbents.

In other words, Thursday’s data reinforced Lilly’s scientific lead, but also reminded the market that pushing weight loss into the 25–30% range may come with new clinical and regulatory trade‑offs.

$6 Billion Alabama Plant: Capacity for a GLP‑1 World

Another major theme swirling around LLY this week is manufacturing muscle.

On Tuesday, Lilly announced plans to spend more than $6 billion on a new active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) facility in Huntsville, Alabama, its third U.S. site focused on synthetic and peptide medicines. ^[22]

Key details:

• The plant will produce ingredients for oral and injectable drugs, including orforglipron, Lilly’s once‑daily oral GLP‑1 pill that just received a U.S. priority review path. ^[23]
• Construction is expected to begin in 2026 and continue into the early 2030s, creating around 3,000 construction jobs and roughly 450 permanent roles. ^[24]
• The Huntsville site was selected from over 300 locations and is part of a $27 billion U.S. investment plan to expand Lilly’s manufacturing base and reduce reliance on overseas supply chains. ^[25]

For investors, this move signals that Lilly is planning for sustained, multiyear demand for GLP‑1‑based therapies, not a fleeting fad. It also answers a frequent bear argument: that manufacturing capacity could be a long‑term bottleneck for pills like orforglipron and next‑generation injectables such as retatrutide.

The flip side? Massive capex commitments contribute to Lilly’s premium valuation debate—investors must believe the company will fill this capacity at attractive margins for many years.

China Reimbursement: Mounjaro Taps a 1.4 Billion‑Person Market

Before Thursday’s trial fireworks, Lilly had already made a major commercial stride this week.

China’s National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) confirmed that Mounjaro, the tirzepatide formulation for type 2 diabetes, will be added to the country’s state‑run health insurance list starting January 1. ^[26]

Why it matters:

• Inclusion on the national reimbursement drug list dramatically improves access for China’s 1.4 billion citizens, and can transform a niche cash‑pay product into a mass‑market therapy. ^[27]
• However, reimbursement comes with heavy price discounts, meaning Lilly may trade some per‑dose revenue for volume, especially as it competes with Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic.

Analysts quoted in Insider Monkey’s coverage note that the move is likely to increase pressure on rivals while still benefiting Lilly overall, given its scale and global portfolio. ^[28]

For Friday’s session, investors will be watching whether sell‑side models begin to lift international Mounjaro forecasts or to trim pricing assumptions in China, and how those revisions net out for long‑term margin estimates.

Under the Hood: Earnings, Guidance and Dividends

Even before this week’s headlines, Lilly’s Q3 2025 numbers and guidance update had already reset expectations higher.

Q3 2025 highlights

From the company’s late‑October earnings release: ^[29]

• Revenue: $17.6 billion, up 54% year‑on‑year, driven largely by Mounjaro and Zepbound.
• Reported EPS: $6.21 vs $1.07 a year ago.
• Non‑GAAP EPS: $7.02 vs $1.18 a year ago.
• Mounjaro revenue: up 109% to $6.52 billion worldwide; ex‑U.S. sales surged as obesity patients paid out of pocket.
• Zepbound U.S. revenue: up 184% to $3.57 billion year‑on‑year.

The company used that strength to raise full‑year 2025 guidance:

• Revenue: now $63.0–$63.5 billion, up from a prior $60.0–$62.0 billion range. ^[30]
• Non‑GAAP EPS: now $23.00–$23.70, vs a previous $21.75–$23.00.

A MarketBeat summary of the quarter noted that Lilly beat Wall Street EPS estimates by about $0.60 and that analysts now expect about $23.48 in EPS for 2025, reflecting the updated outlook and GLP‑1 momentum. ^[31]

Dividend and shareholder returns

Adding to the fundamental case, Lilly’s board this week approved a first‑quarter 2026 dividend of $1.73 per share, payable March 10, 2026, to shareholders of record on February 13. ^[32]

That dividend:

• Represents a meaningful increase from the prior $1.50 quarterly payout. ^[33]
• Equates to an annualized yield of roughly 0.7% at current prices, modest but growing. ^[34]

Taken together, the earnings power and rising cash returns help justify at least part of the premium multiple investors are paying for LLY.

Beyond GLP‑1: Jaypirca and Potential M&A

Jaypirca strengthens Lilly’s oncology profile

Lilly also announced this week that Jaypirca (pirtobrutinib), its next‑generation BTK inhibitor, met the primary endpoint in the BRUIN CLL‑314 Phase 3 trial, a head‑to‑head study versus AbbVie/J&J’s Imbruvica in chronic lymphocytic leukemia and small lymphocytic lymphoma. ^[35]

Key trial points:

• Jaypirca achieved non‑inferiority for overall response rate, with a numerically higher response (around 87%) compared with ~78% for Imbruvica in the intent‑to‑treat population. ^[36]
• The result supports Jaypirca’s positioning as a safer, more flexible BTK option, potentially offering better tolerability and efficacy in some patient subsets.

While oncology is a smaller slice of the valuation pie than obesity, positive Jaypirca data help diversify Lilly’s story beyond GLP‑1s—something many long‑term investors actively want to see.

Abivax rumors: optionality, not a base case

On the deal front, French biotech Abivax surged earlier this week on market chatter that Lilly might make an offer. Reuters reported that Abivax shares jumped over 20% on Wednesday amid takeover speculation, but both companies declined to comment. ^[37]

So far:

• There is no confirmation of any bid.
• Abivax’s value has soared on the strength of its ulcerative colitis drug obefazimod, making any transaction potentially expensive. ^[38]

For now, the rumor mostly reinforces the notion that Lilly is willing to pursue bolt‑on deals to deepen its immunology and gastrointestinal pipelines, but investors shouldn’t treat an Abivax deal as a given catalyst for Friday’s trade.

How Wall Street Is Framing LLY After Today

Analyst targets and ratings

Recent data from GuruFocus shows a wave of upward price‑target revisions in November: ^[39]

• J.P. Morgan: Overweight, PT raised to $1,150 from $1,050.
• Morgan Stanley: Overweight, PT $1,171.
• Citigroup: Buy, PT lifted from $1,250 to $1,500.
• Leerink Partners: Upgraded from “Market Perform” to “Outperform,” PT $1,104.

Across 29 analysts, the average 12‑month price target is about $1,000.90, with a high of $1,500 and a low near $706. The consensus recommendation across 33 brokerages equates to roughly “Outperform” on a 1–5 scale. ^[40]

MarketBeat’s latest institutional overview adds that: ^[41]

• The average price target sits closer to $1,109, implying modest upside from current levels.
• LLY carries a “Moderate Buy” rating overall.
• Institutional ownership exceeds 80%, with major funds trimming or adding around the edges but no sign of wholesale rotation out of the name.

Valuation: rich but (maybe) justified

A detailed Zacks/TradingView analysis this week highlighted: ^[42]

• LLY trades at roughly 30x forward earnings,
• Compared with ~16x for the broader pharmaceuticals industry.
• The multiple is below Lilly’s own five‑year average of about 34.5x, as earnings expectations have risen faster than the share price.

Zacks also noted that:

• 2025 EPS estimates have climbed from about $23.06 to $23.91 in the last two months.
• 2026 EPS estimates have increased from $30.79 to $33.36 over the same period.

So while valuation is undeniably expensive, there is a credible “growth at a (high) price” argument.

Not everyone agrees on fair value, however. GuruFocus’s Peter Lynch fair‑value framework pegs LLY around $403 per share, more than 50% below today’s level, underscoring how sensitive valuation is to long‑term growth and margin assumptions. ^[43] Simply Wall St community estimates span a wide range from roughly $650 to $1,274 per share, reflecting a similarly wide spread of expectations. ^[44]

What to Watch Before the Market Opens on December 12, 2025

With Thursday’s news digested and futures markets eyeing another session near record index levels, here are the key LLY‑specific factors to monitor heading into Friday’s open:

1. Fresh analyst notes on retatrutide

Expect more sell‑side and independent analyst commentary overnight on:

• How Thursday’s retatrutide data might shift the long‑term obesity competitive landscape.
• Whether side‑effect and dropout profiles meaningfully cap the drug’s commercial potential, or can be managed through dose titration and careful patient selection.

Watch for any new target price changes or rating shifts hitting news wires or client notes before the bell—those often drive early pre‑market moves in mega‑caps.

2. Follow‑through on Thursday’s price action

Traders will be looking to see whether:

• Thursday’s move marks the start of a new leg higher after the late‑November pullback,
• Or whether profit‑taking re‑emerges as LLY trades near or above the average Street price target. ^[45]

Levels to watch (approximate):

• Recent high zone: $1,100–$1,110 (resistance). ^[46]
• Near‑term support band: the high‑$900s, including Thursday’s low around $987 and the prior close near $994. ^[47]

3. Macro sentiment after record highs

The broader U.S. equity market closed Thursday with: ^[48]

• The Dow and S&P 500 at record highs,
• The Nasdaq modestly lower, pressured by Oracle and other AI‑linked names.

For a high‑growth pharma giant like Lilly, Friday’s trade will be influenced by:

• Whether investors stay in risk‑on mode after the Fed’s rate cut and strong index performance.
• Or rotate further into cyclical value and away from mega‑cap growth, which could compress multiples even as fundamentals remain strong.

4. Any new headlines on China, pricing or U.S. policy

Given how central GLP‑1 drugs are becoming to healthcare budgets, watch for:

• Additional details on Mounjaro’s China reimbursement price from NHSA or local media. ^[49]
• U.S. or European discussions around drug pricing reform, obesity coverage frameworks, or GLP‑1 reimbursement guidelines.

Even small hints on pricing can move multi‑hundred‑billion‑dollar names like LLY.

5. Ongoing manufacturing and pipeline updates

Finally, keep an eye out for:

• Local and national follow‑up coverage of the Huntsville plant, including state incentives, environmental approvals and timelines, which can affect capex phasing and returns. ^[50]
• Additional pipeline news, especially related to orforglipron’s regulatory review or further details on Jaypirca’s Phase 3 data in CLL/SLL. ^[51]

Key Risks for Longer‑Term Investors

Even as Thursday’s news flow favored the bulls, it’s worth keeping the main risk themes in view:

1. Valuation risk: Multiple frameworks (including Peter Lynch‑style fair value models) suggest LLY trades well above historical “fair value” based on traditional metrics, leaving the stock vulnerable if GLP‑1 demand or pricing disappoint. ^[52]
2. Concentration risk: Mounjaro and Zepbound generated roughly $24.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025—about 54% of total revenue, according to Zacks. ^[53] A slowdown, safety scare, or reimbursement shock in this franchise would have outsized impact.
3. Competition: Novo Nordisk is racing forward with next‑generation injectables and an oral Wegovy, while smaller biotechs like Structure Therapeutics and Viking are advancing their own GLP‑1‑based candidates with strong mid‑stage data. ^[54]
4. Safety/regulatory uncertainties: As weight‑loss percentages approach 25–30%, regulators may scrutinize long‑term safety (e.g., gallbladder, pancreas, muscle mass, mental health) more intensely, potentially affecting labels or surveillance requirements. ^[55]
5. Policy and pricing: From U.S. drug price negotiations to China’s volume‑for‑price approaches and European cost‑effectiveness reviews, policy risk is ever‑present, particularly for high‑cost chronic therapies. ^[56]

None of these invalidate the obesity megatrend—or Lilly’s leadership—but they do shape the risk/reward calculus that sits under Friday’s open and beyond.

Bottom Line

After the bell on December 11, 2025, Eli Lilly stands exactly where the market expected it to be—and then some:

• The science is leading the field, with retatrutide setting a new bar for weight loss and pain relief in obesity and osteoarthritis.
• The industrial footprint is expanding, with a $6 billion Alabama plant and broader U.S. investments aimed at owning the GLP‑1 supply chain.
• The financial engine is humming, supported by soaring GLP‑1 revenue, raised guidance, and a bigger dividend.
• The valuation is demanding, leaving little room for disappointment and making every new headline—good or bad—matter that much more.

Heading into Friday’s, December 12, 2025, session, traders will be testing whether Thursday’s news justifies taking LLY closer to or even beyond its record highs, or whether the combination of lofty expectations and elevated macro markets instead invites a pause or some profit‑taking.

References

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