Shell Plc stock (NYSE: SHEL; LSE: SHEL) is in focus on Friday, December 12, 2025, as investors weigh a fresh wave of headlines spanning litigation risk, analyst recommendations, and upstream activity—against a fast-evolving outlook for oil and LNG markets heading into 2026.
At the time of writing, Shell’s NYSE-listed shares were trading around $72.86, roughly flat-to-slightly lower on the day.
What’s moving Shell stock on Dec. 12, 2025
A handful of “today” drivers are shaping sentiment:
- A new climate-related damages claim filed in London tied to a Philippine “super typhoon” has put legal and reputational risk back on the tape. [1]
- Conflicting analyst signals hit the market: Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy while ING downgraded Shell to Hold and cut its target price (in euros). [2]
- Upstream momentum remains a theme, with Shell preparing a renewed offshore Namibia drilling campaign in 2026—an area investors increasingly associate with “next-decade” exploration optionality. [3]
Those developments land while Shell continues a substantial $3.5 billion share buyback (announced Oct. 30) intended—subject to market conditions—to be completed before the Q4 2025 results announcement. [4]
Major headline risk: Philippines typhoon survivors sue Shell in London
One of the most market-sensitive stories around Shell today is a lawsuit brought by more than 100 survivors of a devastating 2021 typhoon in the Philippines (often referred to as Typhoon Rai/Odette). The claim argues Shell’s historical fossil-fuel activities materially contributed to climate change, amplifying the storm’s destructiveness—an allegation Shell disputes. [5]
Why investors care:
- Even when outcomes are uncertain, high-profile climate litigation can affect valuation via perceived long-tail liabilities, legal costs, and headline volatility.
- The case is notable for leaning on attribution science arguments (linking a company’s emissions contribution to specific harms), a direction climate litigation has increasingly explored. [6]
- Shell’s position, as described in coverage and related statements, is that climate change is a global issue shaped by decades of societal decisions—not something attributable to one company in the manner alleged. [7]
From a stock perspective, litigation rarely moves cash flows immediately—but it can move multiples when investors start pricing uncertainty more heavily. That’s especially true for mega-cap energy names, where “policy + legal + transition” risk is a standing factor in institutional models.
Analyst calls today: Goldman stays bullish; ING turns more cautious
Shell stock also saw fresh analyst commentary on Dec. 12:
Goldman Sachs reiterates “Buy”
Market commentary indicates Goldman Sachs reiterated its Buy rating on Shell in a research note published today. [8]
ING downgrades Shell to “Hold,” trims target
In contrast, ING downgraded Shell to Hold from Buy and reduced its target price from €35 to €33.70, according to MarketScreener’s analyst recommendation roundup. [9]
How to interpret the split:
When high-profile banks diverge, it typically reflects differences in:
- Oil price assumptions for 2026–2027
- Confidence in cash returns (buybacks/dividends) under lower commodity pricing
- How much “exploration and project pipeline” upside is worth paying for today
- The discount applied to energy-transition and litigation risk
For investors, the practical takeaway is that Shell’s narrative remains two-sided: a shareholder-return machine with scale and integration—but also a macro- and policy-exposed business where the forward curve for crude and gas still matters.
Namibia: Shell prepares a new drilling campaign in 2026
Shell is preparing to launch a new drilling campaign in Petroleum Exploration Licence 39 (PEL 39) offshore Namibia, alongside QatarEnergy and Namibia’s national oil company Namcor, with drilling expected to begin April 2026. [10]
Reuters reporting adds context investors will recognize:
- The campaign is a renewed push in the Orange Basin, a region that has drawn intense interest after major discoveries. [11]
- Shell previously recorded a roughly $400 million write-down in early 2025 on a discovery in the same block it deemed commercially unviable—highlighting that the basin’s upside comes with real geological and commercial risk. [12]
- The planned work uses the Deepsea Mira rig (operated by Odfjell Drilling; owned by Northern Ocean). [13]
Stock relevance:
Namibia is not an “earnings this quarter” story. It’s a portfolio optionality story—one that can influence longer-term investor confidence in reserves replacement and upstream pipeline depth. In the short run, it tends to matter most when it changes perceptions about Shell’s capital allocation discipline.
Brazil offshore: Valaris wins a multi-year Shell contract (capex signal)
Another notable item in today’s news flow: offshore driller Valaris announced it was awarded a multi-year contract with Shell offshore Brazil for drillship VALARIS DS-8, tied to the Orca project, starting in Q1 2027 and running roughly 800 days, with a total contract value of about $300 million (plus option time). [14]
While the contract is Valaris’ news, Shell investors may read it as:
- a sign of continued IOC appetite for Brazil deepwater (a core growth region for multiple majors), and
- another reminder that offshore spending is still happening even as the market debates whether oil prices drift below $60 in 2026. [15]
Shell buybacks: program structure, and the latest purchases
Shell remains active in buybacks—a key pillar for equity support in integrated oil and gas.
The program: $3.5 billion through late January 2026
Shell announced the commencement of a $3.5 billion share buyback on Oct. 30, 2025, with shares repurchased under the program intended to be cancelled, reducing issued share capital. The company indicated it intended—subject to market conditions—to complete the program before its Q4 2025 results. [16]
Latest disclosed daily purchases (Dec. 11)
In its “Transaction in Own Shares” announcement, Shell reported that on Dec. 11, 2025 it repurchased:
- 755,759 shares on the London Stock Exchange at a volume-weighted average price of £27.1075, and
- 753,848 shares on Euronext Amsterdam at a volume-weighted average price of €31.0649,
for cancellation. [17]
Why this matters for the stock:
In a sideways commodity tape, buybacks can act as a stabilizer—especially for large-cap energy where the market often treats “capital return reliability” as a core part of the investment case.
Corporate governance: Board and committee changes
Shell also announced board changes effective into 2026, including:
- two non-executive directors not standing for re-election at the 2026 AGM, and
- new non-executive directors appointed effective Jan. 1, 2026, alongside committee updates. [18]
This type of news is typically not a direct price driver, but it can matter to longer-horizon investors focused on governance, transition strategy oversight, and capital allocation philosophy.
Commodity backdrop: 2026 oil balance is still heavily debated
Shell stock almost always trades with at least some sensitivity to the forward outlook for crude and gas. Right now, the market is grappling with a genuine forecasting split:
IEA: surplus, but slightly less than previously expected
The International Energy Agency trimmed its forecast for the 2026 oil market surplus to about 3.84 million barrels per day, citing higher expected demand growth and slightly lower supply expectations. [19]
OPEC: “close balance,” no glut
OPEC, meanwhile, pointed to data suggesting a close supply-demand balance in 2026, pushing back on oversupply narratives and projecting demand that roughly aligns with current output levels. [20]
Banks and traders: talk of sub-$60 oil is back
Adding to the mix, market commentary and analysis have increasingly floated the idea of crude averaging below $60 next year, with the “oversupply vs. demand slowdown” framing showing up in both analyst commentary and commodity-trading circles. [21]
What this means for Shell stock forecasts:
- If 2026 is a “soft landing” oil year (lower prices, but not a collapse), Shell’s integrated model and focus on cash returns become central to the bull case.
- If prices dip hard and stay there, investors will focus on how resilient buybacks and dividends really are—and whether capital spending stays disciplined.
Shell stock forecasts: where analysts see shares heading
The most widely referenced equity forecasts for Shell continue to cluster around “moderate upside” from current levels (not a high-conviction moonshot, but positive skew).
Here are the key consensus snapshots circulating as of today:
- MarketBeat: average 12‑month price target around $79.91, with targets ranging roughly $70 to $91 (implying high-single-digit to low-double-digit upside from the low-$70s). [22]
- StockAnalysis: average target around $80.76 (range $70 to $91), with a “Buy” consensus based on the analysts it tracks. [23]
- Zacks: average price target around $82.59 based on the set of short-term targets it compiles (range also broadly $70 to $91). [24]
On the fundamentals side, some services compiling analyst expectations also point to modest revenue growth and potentially stronger EPS growth rates—though exact trajectories depend heavily on commodity prices and buyback cadence. [25]
Important context for readers: price targets can lag fast-moving macro changes, and energy price assumptions often do more to change targets than small company-specific developments.
Key dates to watch: Shell’s Q4 results and dividend timetable
For investors positioning into year-end and early 2026, calendar discipline matters:
- Shell’s Q4 2025 results announcement date is listed as February 5, 2026. [26]
- The timetable also provides the expected ex-dividend dates and payment date for the Q4 2025 interim dividend cycle (payment shown as March 30, 2026 in the timetable). [27]
With buybacks explicitly linked to completion ahead of results (subject to market conditions), the period between now and early February is likely to keep attention on:
- buyback pace and disclosures
- oil and LNG price moves
- any further legal or regulatory developments
Other “current” Shell themes investors are tracking this week
Even if they’re not strictly “today-only,” these remain part of the near-term narrative around Shell stock into mid-December:
- Digital and AI in upstream: Shell and SLB announced a strategic collaboration to develop digital and AI solutions aimed at improving upstream performance and efficiency—part of the sector’s broader drive to squeeze more output per dollar of capital. [28]
- LNG contract disputes: Venture Global has pushed back against Shell’s fraud allegations in an arbitration-related legal fight over LNG supply—an issue investors watch because it can affect LNG procurement economics and legal costs. [29]
- Russia-linked JV structure: Shell has been reported as seeking to dissolve a joint venture with Rosneft through which it holds part of its Caspian Pipeline Consortium stake, while intending to keep its overall CPC exposure. [30]
- Portfolio moves in the Americas: Shell has been reported in advanced talks to buy Gulf producer LLOG Exploration Offshore (potentially a multi‑billion-dollar deal) and separately linked to efforts to sell a stake in a Brazilian oilfield cluster to help finance development while staying operator. [31]
Bottom line: what Shell stock investors should watch next
As of Dec. 12, 2025, Shell’s stock story is being shaped by three forces at once:
- Headline and legal risk is rising again (climate damages claim), which can pressure sentiment even without immediate cash-flow impact. [32]
- Capital returns remain a core support, with a defined buyback program actively executing and a clear dividend timetable leading into Q4 results. [33]
- Macro uncertainty for 2026 oil remains unusually “two-track,” with major agencies disagreeing on whether a large surplus is coming—an essential variable for any integrated major’s valuation. [34]
For readers tracking Shell Plc stock today, the simplest framing is: cash returns and operational scale vs. macro and litigation uncertainty—with February’s Q4 update the next major checkpoint.
References
1. www.wsj.com, 2. www.marketscreener.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.shell.com, 5. www.wsj.com, 6. www.wsj.com, 7. www.wsj.com, 8. www.marketscreener.com, 9. www.marketscreener.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. uk.investing.com, 16. www.shell.com, 17. www.globenewswire.com, 18. www.globenewswire.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. uk.investing.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. www.zacks.com, 25. simplywall.st, 26. www.shell.com, 27. www.shell.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.wsj.com, 33. www.shell.com, 34. www.reuters.com
