Gold Price Today (December 12, 2025): Gold Jumps Above $4,300 as Fed-Cut Bets, Weak Dollar and Geopolitics Lift Bullion

Gold price today is holding near a seven-week high as investors wrap up a volatile week dominated by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a softer U.S. dollar, and renewed demand for traditional safe-haven assets. By late morning in Europe, spot gold traded above $4,300 per ounce, extending a strong weekly run even as high prices begin to cool physical buying in key Asian markets. ^[1]

Below is a full roundup of today’s (12.12.2025) gold news, forecasts, and analysis—including what is driving XAU/USD, what major institutions are watching, and the key levels traders are tracking into next week.

Gold price today: latest spot and futures levels

As of 09:45 GMT on Friday, December 12, 2025, spot gold rose 0.7% to $4,311.73/oz, its highest level since October 21, and was on pace for a 2.7% weekly gain. U.S. gold futures gained 0.7% to $4,343.50/oz. ^[2]

Because gold trades around the clock, you may see slightly different “gold price today” readings depending on the timestamp and the market (spot vs. futures). For example, earlier in the Asian session, Investing.com cited spot gold around $4,274/oz. ^[3]

Quick conversion: At $4,311.73/oz, gold is roughly $138.63 per gram (approx., based on the troy-ounce conversion).

Why is gold up today? The key drivers moving XAU/USD on 12.12.2025

Today’s gold price action is being driven by a familiar mix—rates, the dollar, and risk headlines—but with a few 2025-specific twists:

1) The Fed’s rate path is still the market’s main compass

Reuters reports that the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year on Wednesday, while signaling caution about additional cuts. Even so, investors are currently pricing in two rate cuts next year, and next week’s U.S. jobs data is expected to shape expectations further. ^[4]

From the Fed itself, Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference transcript confirms the new target range at 3.5%–3.75% following the quarter-point cut. ^[5]

Why this matters for gold: Gold is a non-yielding asset, so it tends to benefit when markets anticipate lower rates (or when real yields fall).

2) The U.S. dollar is weakening—and that is a direct tailwind for gold

The dollar was described as hovering near a two-month low and heading for a third straight weekly drop, which typically supports USD-priced commodities like gold by making them cheaper for non-U.S. buyers. ^[6]

3) Labor-market nerves are feeding haven demand

Reuters highlighted a “sharp rise” in U.S. weekly jobless claims, with claims rising by the most in nearly 4½ years. ^[7]

4) Geopolitics is back in the driver’s seat

Gold’s safe-haven bid is also being supported by geopolitical turbulence. Reuters specifically pointed to U.S.–Venezuela tensions and said the U.S. was preparing to intercept more ships transporting Venezuelan oil after a tanker seizure earlier this week. ^[8]

The “extra” liquidity story: why Fed T-bill buying is on gold traders’ radar

Beyond rate cuts, markets are also digesting a separate (but closely watched) development: the Fed is restarting Treasury bill purchases for liquidity-management purposes.

A Reuters report says the Fed will begin reserve management purchases starting December 12, with an initial pace of around $40 billion per month in Treasury bills. The Fed framed it as a technical operation tied to liquidity and money-market functioning—not a shift in monetary-policy stance. ^[9]

That message is echoed in official sources. The New York Fed’s operating-policy statement says the Desk planned an initial schedule totaling about $40 billion in Treasury bills, starting December 12, 2025. ^[10]

And Powell’s transcript explicitly describes these as purchases of shorter-term Treasuries (mainly bills) intended to maintain an ample level of reserves, again stressing they’re separate from the stance of monetary policy. ^[11]

Why gold traders care: More liquidity and lower front-end yields can pressure the dollar and support precious metals—even if the Fed insists this is “technical.”

Physical gold market update: India discounts widen, China demand muted

While financial demand has been strong, physical demand in Asia is sending a more cautious message at these price levels.

India: wedding season, but sticker shock is biting

Reuters reported that Indian dealers were offering discounts of up to $34/oz to official domestic prices this week, wider than the prior week’s discount of up to $22/oz, as demand stayed subdued even during the wedding season. ^[12]

Domestic gold prices in India hit a record high of 132,776 rupees per 10 grams on Friday, according to the same Reuters report. ^[13]

China: discounts widen amid costs and volatility

In China, bullion reportedly traded anywhere from $20/oz discounts to $10/oz premiums versus global spot benchmarks. Reuters also noted that a VAT adjustment (including a cut to an exemption for certain gold bought through the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Futures exchanges) has increased costs for jewelers and weighed on retail demand. ^[14]

What it means: At record/high prices, jewelry demand often softens first—while investment flows can continue to dominate the price direction.

A structural demand headline: India’s pension rule change opens a new channel for gold ETFs

One of the more interesting “under-the-surface” stories for gold this week is policy-driven demand potential.

Reuters reported that India’s pension regulator (PFRDA) permitted investments in gold and silver ETFs, expanding the allowable investment universe for pension funds. Reuters also said the private pension fund industry oversees 15.78 trillion rupees in assets and serves 80 million subscribers, with ambitions to expand the subscriber base substantially by 2030. ^[15]

FXStreet flagged this as a supportive factor for gold, citing the Reuters report in its daily gold analysis. ^[16]

Why it matters: Even small allocation caps can become meaningful when the underlying pool of retirement assets is large—and the market interprets such policy changes as longer-term supportive.

Silver’s record high is stealing headlines—here’s why it still matters for gold

Gold isn’t rallying alone. Reuters reported that spot silver hit a record high of $64.32/oz and remained up sharply on the week. Reuters attributed silver’s strength to factors including industrial demand, tight inventories, and its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list; Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen also cited a mix of tightness and speculative/ETF flows. ^[17]

Gold often benefits from a broader precious-metals “risk-on” trade—especially when a silver surge reinforces the narrative that real assets are in demand.

Gold forecast and analysis for 12.12.2025: what analysts are watching next

Near-term view: “buy-the-dip” bias still dominates

Reuters quoted an OANDA/MarketPulse analyst saying jobless-claims weakness and U.S.–Venezuela tensions were underpinning gold and keeping haven demand strong. ^[18]

Technical levels traders are quoting today

In a December 12 technical analysis, FXStreet argued that gold remains poised to regain/hold $4,300 and beyond, highlighting bullish momentum and naming specific levels traders are watching:

A key reference area around $4,275 as an immediate resistance/decision zone (based on retracement analysis)
A nearby downside pivot around $4,191.95
Dynamic support near the 21-day SMA around $4,165.40
A prior high reference around $4,381.17 (used in the retracement framework) ^[19]

(Those levels are technical reference points, not guarantees—useful mainly for understanding how traders are positioned.)

Bigger-picture outlook: where institutions see gold heading into 2026

If you’re looking beyond “gold price today,” the 2025 rally has reset what many investors consider a realistic trading range.

The World Gold Council, in its Gold Outlook 2026 published earlier this month, noted that gold had a remarkable 2025 with 50+ all-time highs and returns over 60% by end-November, driven by uncertainty, a weaker dollar, and momentum. For 2026, WGC’s framework suggests gold could be rangebound under a “macro consensus” environment, but could see stronger gains if growth slows and rates fall further, while a stronger-growth / stronger-dollar backdrop could pressure gold. ^[20]

Meanwhile, some major bank forecasts published in recent weeks remain notably bullish:

Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450/oz (from $4,000) and laid out a $3,950–$4,950 range for next year; it also cited central bank and ETF dynamics as key supports. ^[21]
Goldman Sachs raised its December 2026 gold forecast to $4,900/oz, citing ETF inflows and expected central bank buying. ^[22]

These forecasts underscore the key debate heading into 2026: Will gold’s upside be driven more by macro easing and a weaker dollar—or by persistent structural demand (ETFs, central banks, and now new channels like pensions)?

What to watch next week that could move gold prices fast

Several scheduled catalysts could quickly change the “gold price today” narrative:

U.S. non-farm payrolls: Reuters notes next week’s jobs report could offer clues on the Fed’s policy path. ^[23]
Timing note: FXStreet lists the next Nonfarm Payrolls release for Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025, and also points to next week’s inflation data as part of the near-term catalyst set. ^[24]
Fed communication and liquidity conditions: With bill purchases starting and markets debating whether this is “technical” or effectively easing, short-end yields and the dollar could remain sensitive. ^[25]
Geopolitical developments: Any escalation (or de-escalation) in risk headlines can quickly reprice haven demand. ^[26]

Disclosure: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Gold prices can be volatile and may move quickly based on macroeconomic data, central-bank policy, and geopolitical developments.