Home Depot stock ended Monday’s session lower and traded slightly softer after the closing bell—yet the bigger question for investors may not be what happened in the last hour of trading, but what hits the tape before the opening bell on Tuesday, December 16, 2025.
With a heavy slate of housing, consumer-spending, and delayed labor-market data scheduled for the morning—complicated by recent government data disruptions—Home Depot (NYSE: HD) could see outsized sensitivity to macro headlines that shape expectations for home improvement demand, large-ticket projects, and the timing of any housing-led rebound. [1]
Below is a detailed breakdown of HD’s after-hours setup, the most relevant news and forecasts circulating today, and the specific catalysts to track before the market opens tomorrow.
Home Depot stock price after the bell: where HD closed and where it traded late
Home Depot (HD) closed Monday, Dec. 15, 2025 at $356.99, down 0.74%. The stock’s session range was $355.62 to $362.67, with an open near $359.39 and volume around 3.95 million shares. [2]
In after-hours trading, the last quoted update showed HD at $356.25 (down 0.21%) at 7:59 PM EST. [3]
Takeaway: After-hours action was muted, suggesting there was no major company-specific headline changing the narrative late Monday. The setup into Tuesday looks more like a “macro-driven” open than a company-news-driven one.
The broader market backdrop on Dec. 15: mild weakness, HD lagged slightly
Home Depot’s dip came during a modestly weaker day for major U.S. indices. In MarketWatch’s end-of-day data recap, the S&P 500 slipped 0.16% and the Dow fell 0.09% on Monday, while Home Depot fell 0.74% (and some retail/industrial peers were mixed). [4]
Why that matters for HD: When the tape is soft and investors are focused on upcoming economic releases, large, liquid “macro proxies” like Home Depot often trade more on rates, housing expectations, and consumer demand than on micro headlines.
Today’s most notable HD-specific development: an insider transaction disclosed in a Form 4 filing
One concrete, company-linked item that surfaced in Monday’s news cycle is a newly filed SEC Form 4 tied to Home Depot executive Angie Brown (EVP & CIO).
The filing shows transactions dated 12/12/2025, including multiple option exercises and a sale of 1,946 shares at a weighted-average price of $357.63 (with the filing noting sales in a range from $357.05 to $358.01). After the sale, the filing shows beneficial ownership of 3,941.233 shares. [5]
How to interpret it (without overreacting):
- Insider sales can happen for many non-bearish reasons (taxes, diversification, scheduled trading plans).
- A single executive sale—especially alongside option exercises—rarely changes the long-term thesis on a mega-cap retailer by itself.
- But it can become a talking point in a market already debating whether Home Depot’s “recovery timeline” is moving out.
The forecast debate that still frames HD: Home Depot’s FY2026 outlook vs. the housing “inflection” investors want
While there wasn’t a new Home Depot press release today, investor attention remains anchored to the company’s December 9 strategic update / Investor & Analyst Conference, which is still the most important “forecast” document shaping the stock.
What Home Depot has guided
Home Depot reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 guidance (including ~3% total sales growth, slightly positive comps for the comparable 52-week period, and EPS declines vs. FY2024) and provided a preliminary fiscal 2026 outlook that assumes a home improvement market between -1% and +1%, with:
- Comparable sales: ~flat to +2%
- Total sales growth: ~2.5% to 4.5%
- Operating margin: ~12.4% to 12.6%
- (Adjusted) diluted EPS:flat to +4% [6]
Home Depot also laid out a “Market Recovery Case” tied to stronger housing momentum, projecting higher sales and comp growth once pent-up demand and larger projects re-accelerate. [7]
What Reuters highlighted (and why it matters for the stock)
Reuters reported that Home Depot’s FY2026 outlook for comps and EPS came in below analysts’ expectations, with the company’s CFO pointing to the lack of a clear catalyst/inflection in housing activity. [8]
What to watch in that context: If tomorrow morning’s data changes the market’s view of housing traction or consumer resilience, it can quickly re-rate “timing risk” for Home Depot’s recovery narrative—especially for big-ticket discretionary projects that are interest-rate sensitive.
The key catalyst before Tuesday’s open: a packed 8:30 a.m. ET window (jobs + retail sales + housing)
If you only watch one part of Tuesday morning, watch 8:30 a.m. ET.
1) Employment Situation: revised timing and unusual context
The BLS revised-release schedule shows the Employment Situation for November 2025 is set for Tuesday, Dec. 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. ET (moved from an earlier planned date due to the 2025 lapse in appropriations). [9]
Reuters adds critical nuance: the government shutdown disrupted the usual data collection, meaning the combined employment reports will have gaps—including the first-ever missing October unemployment rate because the household survey couldn’t be conducted. [10]
Why HD investors should care: Home Depot’s demand is highly exposed to labor-market confidence. A surprisingly weak payroll trend (or unusual volatility/uncertainty in the data because of collection disruptions) can influence:
- expectations for discretionary spending on remodels,
- the pace of Pro contractor activity,
- and how quickly rate relief translates into housing turnover.
2) Retail Sales: delayed release now scheduled for Dec. 16
The U.S. Census Bureau’s retail release schedule states that the October 2025 advance retail sales release was rescheduled for December 16, 2025. [11]
Census’ economic indicators calendar also lists Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services on December 16, 2025 at 8:30 a.m. for October 2025. [12]
Why it matters for Home Depot: Retail sales aren’t just about apparel and restaurants. A “hot” or “cold” consumer print can move the whole discretionary complex—and for Home Depot, it influences the market’s conviction about:
- DIY transaction volumes,
- big-ticket elasticity,
- and whether consumers are trading down, postponing, or financing projects.
3) Housing Starts & Building Permits: a direct read-through to home improvement demand
Briefing’s economic calendar lists Building Permits and Housing Starts scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 16. [13]
Census’ calendar also reflects New Residential Construction (Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Housing Completions) in the December timeframe, reinforcing that housing data is part of the near-term catalyst set investors are watching. [14]
Why HD investors should care: Even if Home Depot’s core revenue isn’t “new construction,” housing turnover and activity tend to correlate with:
- renovation spending,
- move-related projects,
- and demand for categories like flooring, kitchens, appliances, and larger discretionary upgrades.
A dividend reminder that matters for near-term positioning
Home Depot’s Investor Relations dividend history shows the company declared a $2.30 quarterly cash dividend with an ex-date and record date of 12/04/25, and a payable date of 12/18/25. [15]
What that means into Tuesday: The ex-date has already passed, so the upcoming payment is more about income investor positioning and total return framing than it is about triggering new eligibility.
Technical levels traders will be watching from today’s tape
Even long-term investors should know what short-term traders are likely to key off, because those levels can influence volatility at the open.
From Monday’s session:
- Support zone: around $355–$356 (today’s low was $355.62) [16]
- Near-term resistance: around $362–$363 (today’s high was $362.67) [17]
- Reference point:$356.99 close; $356.25 late after-hours [18]
If the 8:30 a.m. ET data cluster is a surprise, HD can gap above or below these levels quickly—especially because it’s a widely held large-cap name often used as a “housing/consumer” read-through.
What to know before the market opens Tuesday: a practical checklist for HD investors
Here’s the pre-open checklist that matters most for Home Depot stock (HD) tomorrow:
- Know the schedule: Expect market-moving headlines around 8:30 a.m. ET (labor + retail sales + housing). [19]
- Expect potential data “noise”: Government shutdown disruptions mean some economic series may have gaps or revisions that complicate first reactions. [20]
- Watch the “big-ticket” narrative: Home Depot’s own outlook assumes only modest comp growth and points to housing as the key catalyst. Tomorrow’s housing and consumer data can change how investors price that timeline. [21]
- Treat the insider sale as context, not a thesis: The Form 4 is real and worth noting, but it’s only one input—and it was tied to option activity. [22]
- Track whether HD holds Monday’s low: A break below ~$355 on heavy volume after a macro shock can shift near-term sentiment; holding it may reinforce “range-bound” trading until the next company catalyst. [23]
Bottom line
As of after-hours trading Monday, Home Depot stock is digesting a modest down day rather than reacting to a fresh company bombshell. The more important driver into Tuesday’s open is the macro tape—with a rare combination of delayed jobs data, retail sales, and housing reports scheduled before the bell. [24]
For investors, the core question remains the same: when does housing activity regain enough momentum to lift bigger projects and discretionary home improvement spending? Home Depot has provided a cautious FY2026 framework—and Tuesday’s data will help determine whether the market leans toward that cautious base case or starts to price a faster recovery. [25]
References
1. www.briefing.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.sec.gov, 6. corporate.homedepot.com, 7. corporate.homedepot.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.bls.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.census.gov, 12. www.census.gov, 13. www.briefing.com, 14. www.census.gov, 15. ir.homedepot.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. stockanalysis.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.briefing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. corporate.homedepot.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. stockanalysis.com, 24. stockanalysis.com, 25. corporate.homedepot.com
