NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 09:07 EDT
- AT&T shares were priced at $21.87 in premarket trade, 0.36% lower compared to Monday’s closing value.
- Analysts’ preliminary consensus expects adjusted earnings at $0.59 per share, with revenue projected to reach $32.04 billion.
- Initial calculation shows that intended dividends and share repurchases represent roughly 87% of AT&T’s stated minimum free-cash-flow goal for 2026.
U.S. markets were not yet open. AT&T Inc. NYSE:T dropped in premarket trade ahead of its results due Wednesday. The earnings call is set for 08:30 EDT.
The tougher issue for the market is cash conversion. AT&T’s valuation gap may not be bridged by earnings growth alone.
Wall Street anticipates higher quarterly earnings and revenue. However, AT&T’s free-cash-flow outlook signals the opposite.
| Measure | Q2 2026 estimate or guidance | Q2 2025 reported | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $32.04 billion | $30.8 billion | +3.9% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.59 | $0.54 | +9.3% |
| Free cash flow | $4.0–$4.5 billion | $4.4 billion | -3.4% at midpoint |
*Initial consensus projections. AT&T disclosed the free-cash-flow range in April.
The division is significant. Revenue and adjusted earnings can rise even as average cash flow declines.
Initial estimate: AT&T’s total shares outstanding number around 6.95 billion. Paying its annual dividend of $1.11 results in a total dividend payout of approximately $7.7 billion.
Include scheduled buybacks for 2026 totaling approximately $8 billion. Total cash returns rise to nearly $15.7 billion, representing 87% of the $18 billion minimum free-cash-flow goal.
At the lowest level, roughly $2.3 billion is left for reducing debt and other potential uses. The calculation does not take into account the timing of buybacks or upcoming share price movements.
Free cash flow for the first quarter totaled $2.5 billion. Factoring in the midpoint for the second quarter, the sum for the half-year would be $6.75 billion.
This leaves $11.25 billion for the latter half, accounting for 62.5% of the annual minimum.
Operating data offer backing. Advanced Connectivity service revenue climbed 3.6% during the first quarter, while EBITDA was up 5.6%.
AT&T gained 584,000 new fiber and fixed-wireless internet subscribers. Around 42% of its advanced home internet customers additionally purchased AT&T wireless services.
Without including acquired fiber customers, the convergence rate was nearly 45%. Bundling services can improve retention and distribute customer costs between two offerings.
In April, Brian Mulberry, chief market strategist at Zacks Investment Management, stated that AT&T considered data to be “the revenue of the future.” He said this perspective underpins the company’s significant investment. Reuters
AT&T closed last week at $21.81, up roughly 3.2% from the previous Friday. On Monday, shares rose a further 0.64% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.19%.
The stock continues to trade at a pronounced discount. AT&T is valued at roughly 7.4 times its trailing earnings, compared to Verizon Communications Inc. NYSE:VZ at 10.6 times, and T-Mobile US Inc. NASDAQ:TMUS, which is priced at 20.8 times.
Jonathan Atkin of RBC Capital Markets reiterated a Buy rating on July 19, with a price target of $27—approximately 23% higher than the stock’s closing value on Monday.
AT&T will post its results on Wednesday. T-Mobile is set to report on Thursday, with Verizon scheduled for Friday, providing investors with three updates on subscriber trends and the intensity of promotions.
Risks: Net debt reached $126.4 billion following the first quarter. Legacy revenue dropped 25.3%. Higher spending on fiber led to lower free cash flow for the quarter. A slow subscriber quarter could further reduce the dividend buffer.
Share prices may initially react to subscriber growth. The duration of AT&T’s low valuation will depend on its cash flow.
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