NEW YORK, July 21, 2026, 05:09 EDT
- Early consensus: Second-quarter revenue seen at $16.70 billion, with adjusted earnings per share projected at $0.03.
- Shares of AAL ended Monday at $15.14, gaining 1.1%, after falling 11.6% over the previous week.
- Nasdaq premarket trade was underway. The main session is scheduled to start at 09:30 EDT.
American Airlines Group Inc. NASDAQ:AAL heads into Thursday’s results with sales at an all-time high. However, little of that is expected to translate into adjusted net income.
Analysts expect revenue to reach $16.70 billion and earnings of three cents per share. This projection is close to the center of American’s breakeven outlook.
Based on 661.39 million shares, the projection suggests about $20 million in adjusted earnings. This represents an adjusted net margin of approximately 0.1%. The figure is an early estimate.
| Metric | Q2 2025 actual | Q2 2026 preliminary estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.39 billion | $16.70 billion |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.95 | $0.03 |
| Adjusted net income | $628 million | Near $20 million |
| Implied adjusted net margin | 4.4% | Roughly 0.1% |
| Year-on-year revenue change | — | Roughly 16.0% |
| Year-on-year EPS change | — | Approximately negative 96.8% |
*Initial reporter estimates are based on the present FactSet EPS consensus, revenue forecasts, and 661.39 million shares in circulation. Adjusted figures do not include special items.
In the previous year, American reported adjusted earnings of $628 million. Revenue reached $14.39 billion, with an adjusted net margin of 4.4%.
Revenue is not an issue.
American projected Q2 sales to increase by 13.5% to 16.5%. The company anticipated capacity growth of 4% to 6%. Nonfuel unit costs were expected to climb 2% to 4%.
Management based projections on fuel costs around $4 per gallon. They anticipated recovering nearly half of the rise by boosting fares and additional income. Unit revenue was projected to rise by over 10%.
In April, Chief Executive Robert Isom stated that American was “on track for another record in the second quarter.” The revenue goal appears within reach. Margin conversion continues to be the bigger challenge. American Airlines Newsroom
United Airlines Holdings Inc. NASDAQ:UAL serves as the nearest comparable for operations. The company posted a 16% increase in second-quarter revenue, reporting $17.7 billion, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.99.
United offset roughly 50% of its increased fuel costs and achieved unit-revenue growth of 12.1%. American anticipated a comparable level of fuel cost recovery, but its projected profit stays close to break-even.
Projections have risen. FactSet now puts Q2 EPS at an average of $0.03, compared to a loss of two cents noted a month back. The average for the full year increased to $0.61 from $0.01.
This narrows the possibilities for a result within the guidance. American’s official Q2 outlook forecasts between a 20-cent loss and a 20-cent gain per share. For the full year, guidance ranges from a 40-cent loss up to $1.10 in adjusted earnings.
The balance sheet intensifies the situation. At the end of March, American carried $34.7 billion in company-defined debt against liquidity of $10.8 billion. That debt is approximately 3.5 times the $10.01 billion equity value recorded on Monday.
American unveiled upgraded premium amenities at Dallas Fort Worth on Monday. The airline’s plans feature a Flagship check-in and an Admirals Club lounge spanning 37,000 square feet. DFW processes more than 30% of connecting passengers and luggage for American.
Heather Garboden, Chief Customer Officer, stated that American is “investing in every stage of the premium travel journey at DFW.” Details regarding project expenses or expected returns were not included in the release. American Airlines Newsroom
Fuel continues to be the key variable. Brent crude fell 1.1% to $88.26 early on Tuesday, despite ongoing risks to Middle East supply. United reported that July’s rise in fuel prices by itself increased projected Q3 expenses by $575 million.
American is scheduled to hold its conference call Thursday at 07:30 CDT. Analysts are expected to watch for Q3 fuel expectations, recovery of fares, and capacity plans following summer. The market will also pay attention to progress on debt reduction and growth in premium revenue.
Risks: Another rise in oil prices could offset fare hikes. Softer demand may curb the ability to raise prices further, and disruptions from storms or air-traffic issues could push up operational expenses. American’s leverage offers limited buffer against these risks.
Related articles: NASDAQ:AAL
