December 16, 2025 — Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) has become one of the EV market’s most closely watched “story stocks” again—this time for something bigger than quarterly deliveries: a hard pivot into vertically integrated autonomy, custom silicon, and recurring software revenue.
Rivian shares are hovering near the high teens after a burst of volatility tied to the company’s inaugural Autonomy & AI Day and the analyst reaction that followed. The stock closed at $18.70 on December 15, according to MarketBeat’s market data. [1]
What changed? Rivian didn’t just demo features—it laid out a strategy that looks more like a software-and-compute company that happens to build trucks and SUVs. Investors are now trying to answer a deceptively simple question:
Can Rivian turn autonomy and AI into a durable business advantage before cash burn and EV competition turn the next two years into a survival game?
Rivian stock news on Dec. 16: the AI narrative is back—and it’s moving the tape
The biggest near-term driver for Rivian stock is the market’s re-pricing of the company around autonomy, subscription software, and in-house compute.
After Autonomy & AI Day, Reuters reported Rivian shares surged about 18% on analyst enthusiasm around its new AI strategy and custom self-driving chip, with the stock touching $19.37, its highest level in nearly two years at the time of that report. [2]
At the same time, coverage hasn’t been universally bullish. A Morgan Stanley downgrade earlier this month highlighted the other side of the debate—whether demand, data scale, and economics will support Rivian’s autonomy ambitions.
And today, Rivian’s autonomy push is still dominating the conversation. Stratechery published an interview with CEO RJ Scaringe on December 16 that frames Rivian’s approach as “fully integrated”—chips, sensors (including LiDAR and radar), and software—while emphasizing how this stack could matter not only for Rivian vehicles but also for partners (notably Volkswagen). [3]
The headline catalyst: Rivian’s custom chip (RAP1) and its Gen 3 autonomy computer
Rivian’s Autonomy & AI Day wasn’t subtle. The company announced it is transitioning to in-house silicon designed for autonomy, centered on its first-generation Rivian Autonomy Processor (RAP1), described as a custom 5nm processor integrating processing and memory into a multi-chip module. [4]
RAP1 powers Rivian’s third-generation autonomy computer—Autonomy Compute Module 3 (ACM3)—with specs Rivian put directly in its press release:
- 1600 sparse INT8 TOPS (trillion operations per second)
- 5 billion pixels per second of processing
- A low-latency interconnect (“RivLink”) designed to scale compute by connecting chips
- An in-house AI compiler and platform software enabling the stack [5]
Reuters also emphasized the strategic meaning: Rivian is shifting away from Nvidia processors for this part of the autonomy stack and positioning vertical integration as a long-run cost advantage—expensive early, potentially cheaper at scale if it eliminates supplier margins and better fits Rivian’s needs. [6]
Why investors care: autonomy is not just a “feature.” It’s a compute-and-data flywheel. If Rivian can own more of the stack, it can (in theory) iterate faster, differentiate the driving experience, and—critically—sell software repeatedly after the vehicle sale.
Autonomy+ subscription: Rivian’s bid for recurring revenue
Rivian is putting real price tags on autonomy:
- Autonomy+ is expected to launch in early 2026
- Pricing: $2,500 one-time or $49.99 per month [7]
This matters for Rivian stock because subscription software revenue is the kind Wall Street tends to reward—higher margin, more predictable, and less dependent on the brutal physics of auto manufacturing.
Rivian also says near-term software improvements are coming to its second-generation R1 vehicles through Universal Hands-Free (UHF), expanding hands-free assisted driving availability to over 3.5 million miles of roads across the U.S. and Canada, and even “off-highway” on roads with clearly painted lines. [8]
The market’s open questions (and the source of disagreement among analysts) are straightforward but not easy:
- How many owners will actually pay?
- Will features be compelling enough vs. Tesla and others?
- Can Rivian deliver the roadmap safely and on time?
- Will regulators—and consumer trust—keep pace with the ambition?
The LiDAR divergence—and what it signals about Rivian’s approach vs. Tesla
Rivian is explicitly leaning into a multi-sensor strategy. In its press release, the company said it plans to integrate LiDAR into future R2 models to add redundancy and improve detection for edge cases. [9]
But timing matters. Rivian stated its Gen 3 autonomy hardware (ACM3 + LiDAR) is in validation and is expected to ship on R2 models starting at the end of 2026. [10]
That might sound late—until you pair it with another detail circulating in current coverage: Rivian’s autonomy leadership has argued LiDAR is now “very affordable,” and Business Insider reported that the R2 is expected to launch in early 2026 without LiDAR initially, with a LiDAR-equipped version expected later. [11]
This sequencing—launch first, add higher-end autonomy hardware later—resembles how many automakers manage cost, supply chain readiness, and feature gating.
Analyst forecasts for Rivian stock: the consensus is cautious, even after the rally
Here’s the most telling tension in the RIVN story right now:
- Rivian stock has rallied into the high teens.
- Yet broad analyst consensus still implies skepticism.
MarketBeat, summarizing 28 analyst ratings, lists Rivian’s consensus as “Hold” with an average 12-month price target of $14.86, which (based on the referenced price point) implies downside from current levels. [12]
But the dispersion is wide—MarketBeat lists a high target of $25.00 and a low target of $6.10. [13]
That range tells you analysts aren’t merely arguing about next quarter—they’re arguing about what Rivian is.
On the bullish end, Reuters reported Needham raised its price target to $23 after Autonomy & AI Day, with analysts praising Rivian’s strategic shift. [14]
On the bearish end, a Morgan Stanley downgrade to Underweight (with a $12 price target reported in coverage) underscores concerns that the autonomy narrative doesn’t automatically solve demand or execution risk.
Fundamentals check: deliveries, guidance, and the EV incentive “hangover”
Autonomy headlines move stocks fast. Vehicle production and demand move companies.
Rivian’s Q3 2025 update provides important context:
- 10,720 vehicles produced in Q3 2025
- 13,201 vehicles delivered in Q3 2025
- Rivian narrowed its 2025 delivery guidance to 41,500–43,500 vehicles [15]
Reuters added color around the demand environment: Rivian slightly lowered the midpoint of its full-year forecast as it braced for reduced demand following the lapse/expiry of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, after what Reuters described as a pull-forward of purchases before incentive changes. [16]
So even in the middle of an “AI re-rating,” Rivian is still navigating the classic EV maker problem set: incentives, price elasticity, and getting to scale without drowning in losses.
Another current risk factor: Rivian recall news (commercial vans)
Investors tracking Rivian stock also have to watch operational and safety issues—especially because Rivian’s commercial vans are part of its credibility with fleet buyers.
On December 3, Reuters reported Rivian recalled 34,824 electric delivery vehicles (EDVs) in the U.S. over a seat belt issue, with a remedy that included an over-the-air update for misuse detection and inspections/replacements as needed. [17]
Rivian’s own recall page lists an EDV seat belt misuse recall entry (NHTSA Recall No. 25V-816) with a remedy available date of December 3, 2025. [18]
Recalls aren’t unusual in autos, but they matter for a company still building its brand and scaling fleet relationships.
The “hidden” software asset: the Volkswagen-Rivian joint venture
One reason Rivian’s autonomy and software narrative has teeth is that it may not have to monetize only through Rivian-branded vehicles.
Volkswagen’s November 12 press release said the joint venture “Rivian and Volkswagen Group Technologies” is progressing on a state-of-the-art zonal architecture and software for future vehicles, with winter testing of reference vehicles (Volkswagen, Audi, Scout) expected in Q1 2026, and an international team of more than 1,500 employees. [19]
If Rivian’s electrical/software architecture becomes embedded beyond Rivian’s lineup, investors could start valuing Rivian less like a niche automaker—and more like a platform supplier. That’s the bull case in one sentence.
Technical and momentum angle: RIVN’s RS Rating jumps
For readers watching the stock as a stock (not just as a company), momentum indicators have also turned supportive.
Investor’s Business Daily reported Rivian’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating rose to 91 as of December 15—placing it in a top tier of 52-week price performers by IBD’s methodology. [20]
That doesn’t change Rivian’s cash burn, but it does explain why RIVN is showing up on more screens and in more “what’s moving” lists.
What to watch next for Rivian stock
Rivian’s narrative is shifting quickly, but a few milestones now dominate the forward calendar:
1) Autonomy+ launch (early 2026)
Pricing and packaging are set; the open question is adoption and feature quality. [21]
2) R2 timeline—and which version ships when
Coverage suggests early R2 launch timing can differ from the rollout of full Gen 3 autonomy hardware + LiDAR later in 2026. [22]
3) Next earnings date (still unconfirmed by the company in some calendars)
Third-party calendars have projected an earnings window around February 19, 2026 after market close, but label it unconfirmed/forecasted. [23]
4) Deliveries and margin trajectory
The market will keep coming back to the same scoreboard: deliveries, gross margin progress, and cash burn—especially post-incentive changes. [24]
Bottom line: Rivian stock is being re-rated as an “AI-defined vehicle” bet—but execution is the boss fight
As of December 16, 2025, Rivian stock is trading at the intersection of two powerful forces:
- A compelling autonomy/AI strategy (custom chip, hands-free expansion, subscription pricing, and a roadmap toward higher autonomy levels). [25]
- Hard EV-market realities (incentive shifts, demand sensitivity, recalls, and the long march to scale and profitability). [26]
That’s why you’re seeing both: sharp rallies on tech narrative and skepticism in consensus price targets. [27]
This isn’t a calm “set it and forget it” stock right now. It’s a high-volatility referendum on whether Rivian can become a vertically integrated software-and-autonomy company fast enough to reshape its financial trajectory—before the runway gets shorter.
References
1. www.marketbeat.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stratechery.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businessinsider.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.businesswire.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. rivian.com, 19. www.volkswagen-group.com, 20. www.investors.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 24. www.businesswire.com, 25. www.businesswire.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com
