Pfizer’s latest outlook is setting the tone for how investors may view the drugmaker’s post-pandemic transition in 2026: steady underlying growth ambitions, but a near-term financial “air pocket” as COVID-19 revenue continues to shrink and several products face patent and exclusivity headwinds.
On December 16, 2025, Pfizer issued its full-year 2026 guidance, projecting revenue of $59.5 billion to $62.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $3.00—both ranges that came in below Wall Street expectations cited by major financial outlets covering the update. [1]
The market reaction has been measured. After a strong move higher on Monday tied to dividend headlines, Pfizer shares were little changed to modestly mixed in early trading on Tuesday, as investors weighed softer earnings guidance against continued cost discipline and increased investment in the pipeline. [2]
What Pfizer guided for 2026
Pfizer’s guidance frames 2026 as a year of limited top-line growth, with the company explicitly pointing to two big drags—lower COVID product sales and the loss of exclusivity (LOE) for certain therapies—while also signaling continued investment in R&D and integration of acquired assets. [3]
Here are the headline figures Pfizer provided:
- 2026 revenue:$59.5B–$62.5B [4]
- 2026 adjusted diluted EPS:$2.80–$3.00 [5]
- 2026 COVID-19 product revenue (company estimate): about $5.0B (vs. about $6.5B expected in 2025) [6]
- 2026 adjusted SI&A expenses:$12.5B–$13.5B [7]
- 2026 adjusted R&D expenses:$10.5B–$11.5B [8]
- Effective tax rate on adjusted income: about 15% (vs. about 11% expected in 2025) [9]
Pfizer also said that, at the midpoint, operational revenue growth excluding COVID and LOE products is expected to be approximately 4% year over year—a key nuance suggesting the base business is projected to grow even if the consolidated headline number looks flat. [10]
Why the 2026 profit outlook is below expectations
The simplest way to read Pfizer’s 2026 setup: two $1.5 billion headwinds and a higher projected tax rate make it harder to grow earnings in the near term—even as the company leans into R&D and business development.
Pfizer said its 2026 revenue guidance assumes:
- roughly $1.5B less revenue from COVID products than expected in 2025, and
- about $1.5B of negative impact from LOE across certain products in 2026. [11]
Reuters reported that Pfizer’s adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80 to $3.00 was below the analyst average estimate of about $3.05, and that the revenue range compared with an estimate around $61.59B. [12]
In other words, Pfizer is telling the market: the company expects to keep building the engine for future growth, but 2026 will still reflect the “hangover math” of the COVID comedown and patent-cycle pressures.
Pfizer trims 2025 revenue view to about $62 billion, keeps EPS outlook
Alongside its 2026 guidance, Pfizer also revised its full-year 2025 revenue expectation to approximately $62.0 billion, down from the prior range of $61.0B to $64.0B, while reaffirming other components of 2025 financial guidance, including adjusted EPS expectations of $3.00 to $3.15. [13]
This “revenue lower, profit steady” framing matters because it suggests Pfizer believes cost controls, mix, and operational execution can still support earnings resilience even with a modest top-line reset. [14]
Pfizer also filed an 8-K dated December 16, 2025 referencing the press release and the updated guidance, reinforcing that this outlook is part of the company’s formal investor disclosure for the market. [15]
Dividend stays front-and-center for PFE investors
The guidance update lands just one day after Pfizer stock rallied on dividend-related coverage—highlighting how important income remains to the Pfizer investment case while the company rebuilds growth.
Pfizer’s board declared a $0.43 first-quarter 2026 dividend, payable March 6, 2026, to shareholders of record as of January 23, 2026. Pfizer noted this will be its 349th consecutive quarterly dividend. [16]
MarketBeat reported that Pfizer shares rose about 2.3% on December 15, 2025 after the dividend announcement gained attention, with the quarterly dividend annualizing to $1.72 per share and implying a mid–single-digit yield based on the stock’s then-recent trading levels. [17]
For investors, the dividend narrative is doing two things at once:
- Providing carry (income) while Pfizer works through a muted earnings year, and
- Raising the bar on execution—because dividend-heavy stories tend to sharpen scrutiny on cash generation, cost discipline, and the timing of a return to durable growth.
The strategic subtext: invest more in R&D to rebuild the pipeline
If Pfizer’s 2026 guidance is the headline, the subhead is the company’s stated intent to keep investing in its pipeline and acquired assets even during a period of weaker reported growth.
Pfizer forecast 2026 adjusted R&D expense of $10.5B to $11.5B, explicitly tying the increase to work on a PD-1 x VEGF bispecific antibody (PF-08634404) in-licensed from 3SBio and to multiple programs coming from Metsera. [18]
Reuters also highlighted Pfizer’s broader cost program, noting the company has pursued a sweeping cost-reduction effort and is targeting more than $7.7 billion in total savings through 2027. [19]
This combination—lower SI&A guidance and higher R&D guidance—signals a deliberate “reallocation” approach: spend less to run the business, spend more to create future products. [20]
Two pipeline pillars getting investor attention: oncology and obesity
While Pfizer is a diversified biopharma company, two areas are increasingly central to the growth narrative that sits behind today’s flat-sales outlook: oncology and cardiometabolic/obesity.
1) Oncology: the 3SBio PD-1 x VEGF bet
Pfizer has been building a position in a hot segment of immuno-oncology—PD-1/PD-L1 combined with VEGF inhibition—through its deal with China’s 3SBio.
In a May 2025 announcement, Pfizer said it entered an exclusive global, ex-China licensing agreement with 3SBio for SSGJ-707, a bispecific antibody targeting PD-1 and VEGF, being studied in China across several tumor types. The deal included a $1.25B upfront payment and potential milestones up to $4.8B, plus tiered royalties if approved. [21]
Pfizer’s December 16 guidance update explicitly calls out maximizing development of the in-licensed PD-1 x VEGF asset as part of why R&D will be higher in 2026. [22]
2) Obesity and cardiometabolic: YaoPharma + Metsera
Pfizer has also been trying to establish itself in obesity—one of the most competitive and fast-moving markets in global pharma.
On December 9, 2025, Pfizer announced an exclusive global collaboration and license agreement with YaoPharma (a subsidiary of Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical) for YP05002, an oral small-molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist in Phase 1 development for chronic weight management. Under the terms Pfizer disclosed, YaoPharma will complete an ongoing Phase 1 trial; Pfizer will then take on further development, manufacturing, and commercialization. The deal includes $150M upfront, up to $1.935B in milestones, and tiered royalties if approved. [23]
Pfizer added that it plans to run combination studies pairing YP05002 with its GIPR antagonist PF-07976016 (Phase 2) and potentially other internal small molecules—an approach designed to compete in a market where combination regimens are widely expected to become more common over time. [24]
Separately, Reuters reported that Pfizer’s renewed obesity push follows its acquisition of Metsera (described by Reuters as an up to $10 billion deal), giving Pfizer additional programs in the space—another reason Pfizer expects R&D spending to rise in 2026. [25]
What investors may watch next after the 2026 guidance
Pfizer’s 2026 outlook makes one thing clear: the market is likely to grade the company less on whether next year is “flat,” and more on whether Pfizer is building the ingredients for a durable rebound in 2027 and beyond.
Key signposts investors and analysts will likely track include:
- How quickly COVID revenue stabilizes at a smaller base (Pfizer itself expects COVID product revenue to be lower in 2026 than 2025). [26]
- Which products are driving the LOE headwinds and how effectively Pfizer offsets them through launches, lifecycle management, and business development. [27]
- Progress on cost realignment, including whether Pfizer stays on pace for the multi-year savings target cited by Reuters. [28]
- Pipeline milestones, especially in oncology (PD-1 x VEGF) and obesity (oral GLP-1 and combination strategies), that can shift investor expectations from “repair story” to “growth story.” [29]
Pfizer hosted (and publicized) an analyst and investor call on December 16, 2025, centered on reviewing its full-year 2026 financial guidance—a venue where investors typically look for deeper detail on assumptions, product trajectories, and the timing of key clinical or commercial catalysts. [30]
Bottom line
Pfizer’s December 16 update paints 2026 as a year of transition rather than acceleration: revenue expected to be broadly flat, profit projected below consensus, and a clearer acknowledgment that COVID’s downshift and patent-cycle pressures still weigh on the income statement. [31]
But it also underscores what Pfizer wants investors to focus on next: continued cost discipline, increased R&D investment, and a pipeline rebuild—with oncology and obesity/cardiometabolic assets increasingly central to the company’s long-term growth narrative. In the meantime, the $0.43 quarterly dividend remains a key part of the shareholder value proposition as the turnaround efforts play out. [32]
References
1. www.businesswire.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.businesswire.com, 5. www.businesswire.com, 6. www.businesswire.com, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.businesswire.com, 14. www.businesswire.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.pfizer.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.businesswire.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.businesswire.com, 21. www.pfizer.com, 22. www.businesswire.com, 23. www.pfizer.com, 24. www.pfizer.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.businesswire.com, 27. www.businesswire.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.businesswire.com, 30. investors.pfizer.com, 31. www.businesswire.com, 32. www.businesswire.com
