Dogecoin (DOGE) is trading around $0.13 versus the US dollar (DOGE/USD) on Thursday, December 18, 2025, with analysts debating whether the memecoin’s next meaningful move is a capitulation-style slide toward $0.10 or a technical rebound if key resistance breaks. [1]
While crypto markets remain highly sensitive to macro headlines and risk sentiment, DOGE’s own tape today is dominated by a familiar mix: technical levels, derivatives positioning, and conflicting signals from large holders (“whales”). [2]
Dogecoin price today: DOGE/USD snapshot (Dec. 18, 2025)
Data varies slightly by venue because crypto trades 24/7 and “24-hour windows” differ by provider, but the broad picture is consistent: DOGE is sitting just above the mid-$0.12s after another wave of selling. [3]
Here’s a consolidated snapshot from major trackers:
- Price: about $0.13 [4]
- 24h range: roughly $0.124 to $0.131 (some feeds show highs into the mid-$0.13s depending on the exchange basket) [5]
- Market cap: about $19–$20 billion [6]
- 24h volume: roughly $1.6–$1.8 billion [7]
Why is Dogecoin going down today?
1) A “risk-off” tape is pressuring speculative crypto
Several market updates published today frame the broader environment as cautious—traders are watching macro catalysts and positioning defensively. In a widely shared morning note, Benzinga said traders were cautious ahead of a Bank of Japan rate decision, while the “meme-coin sector” also slipped (their report cites meme-coin sector value around $41.3B). [8]
FXStreet’s Dogecoin-focused forecast similarly points to the broader market “bracing” around macro events (it specifically references the US CPI and BoJ decision) while DOGE itself weakens. [9]
2) On-chain and derivatives signals (today) lean bearish
One of the clearest “why now?” explanations in today’s coverage is the combination of large-holder distribution and bearish derivatives positioning:
- Large-wallet investors trimming exposure: FXStreet cites Santiment data showing wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion DOGE dropping to 34.77B DOGE, down from 36.14B on Dec. 1. [10]
- Supply in profit declining: FXStreet also notes DOGE supply in profit around 50.70%, down from 53.95% earlier this month—often interpreted as demand weakening as fewer coins sit above holders’ cost basis. [11]
- Shorts gaining the upper hand: FXStreet reports DOGE derivatives short positioning rising to 53.91% (from 52.59% the day before), alongside over $5M in long liquidations. [12]
A separate TradingView-distributed technical recap echoes this theme: retail interest appears softer, and liquidations have punished long positions. [13]
3) But another camp sees “quiet accumulation” and a reversal setup
Not all of today’s analysis is bearish. crypto.news argues DOGE has been carving a bullish reversal structure (a falling-wedge pattern) and says “whales” increased holdings over the past month, citing Nansen-based metrics and positioning the setup as a potential recovery catalyst if resistance breaks. [14]
That disagreement—distribution in one dataset vs. accumulation in another—isn’t unusual in crypto. Different providers define “whales” differently, track different address cohorts, and use different time windows. The practical takeaway for traders is that price levels may matter more than any single metric in the next few sessions.
Technical levels: the price zones traders are watching right now
Across today’s technical write-ups, one idea repeats: DOGE is testing (or breaking) levels that acted as support for months.
The bearish map: $0.123 → $0.10 (and possibly lower)
FXStreet highlights a key near-term pivot: $0.1231 (an S1 pivot point). Their base case says that a decisive push below that level increases the odds of a move to the $0.10 psychological support. [15]
CCN goes further and frames the breakdown as structural: it says DOGE has broken a multi-year support trend line and warns that a sustained move below roughly $0.130 could open the door to a drop toward about $0.095 (roughly 25% lower). It also points to $0.105 as a channel support zone to watch along the way. [16]
The “relief rally” map: $0.145 → $0.155 → $0.20
On the bullish side, crypto.news centers the fight around $0.145. It argues that reclaiming/breaking that psychological resistance could open a run toward $0.20 (their upside scenario). [17]
FXStreet’s rebound framework is more conservative: if DOGE bounces, it flags the 50-day EMA near $0.1556 as a notable resistance level where rallies could stall. [18]
Benzinga also points to the importance of reclaiming the high-$0.12s: one trader it cites suggests DOGE only becomes attractive if it reclaims and holds $0.128 as support. [19]
Today’s forecast roundup (Dec. 18, 2025): what the major calls are saying
Here’s what stands out in the forecasts and analyses dated today:
Bearish forecasts emphasize fading demand and weak flows
- FXStreet: bearish bias after breaking below an April low; highlights $0.1231 as a trigger and $0.10 as the next major magnet if selling persists. [20]
- BanklessTimes: calls for a potential drop toward $0.10, and ties weakness to muted demand for DOGE-focused funds (it claims Grayscale and Bitwise DOGE funds saw no inflows since Dec. 11, with relatively small total assets). [21]
- CCN: warns of another leg down toward $0.105 and $0.095 if $0.130 fails decisively. [22]
Bullish/neutral forecasts focus on reversal patterns and “mean reversion”
- crypto.news: highlights a falling-wedge reversal structure and argues a break above $0.145 could lead to $0.20; but it also says a drop below $0.10 would invalidate the bullish thesis. [23]
- Binance’s prediction portal (user-input consensus): shows a relatively muted path—its page (timestamped today) displays a 5-year consensus target around $0.165 and a modest 30-day projection around $0.1298 (a small increase from current levels), while emphasizing these are user submissions, not Binance’s opinion. [24]
- Changelly (published today): posts a December 2025 forecast range roughly $0.124 to $0.143 with an average around $0.134, while also publishing multi-year projections (methodology and model assumptions can vary widely). [25]
A real-world catalyst on the tape: “House of Doge” pushes institutional and payments narrative
Beyond charts, one of the most concrete pieces of Dogecoin ecosystem news dated today is a GlobeNewswire press release from House of Doge, described as the corporate arm of the Dogecoin Foundation.
Key claims in the release include:
- A definitive merger agreement with Brag House Holdings (NASDAQ: TBH), targeting a close in Q1 2026 (subject to regulatory approval). [26]
- The “Official Dogecoin Treasury” scaled to 730+ million DOGE, with a 10-year asset management agreement involving CleanCore Solutions (NYSE: ZONE). [27]
- Plans for payments and product rollouts (including a rewards debit card) beginning in Q1 2026, plus broader “payments ecosystem” development. [28]
In theory, this kind of headline can help DOGE’s longer-term adoption narrative. In practice, today’s price action suggests traders are still prioritizing macro risk and technical damage over forward-looking product stories.
Short-term Dogecoin forecast: two scenarios that fit today’s data
Forecasting DOGE is always a bit like forecasting weather on a planet with three suns: the physics exists, but the chaos is real. Still, today’s cluster of analyses points to two workable scenarios.
Scenario A: Breakdown continuation (bear case)
This scenario is supported by FXStreet/CCN-style analysis and hinges on continued weakness below key supports:
- Trigger: sustained trade below ~$0.123 [29]
- Targets:$0.10 (psychological) first; CCN highlights $0.105 and $0.095 as additional technical zones [30]
- What would confirm it: rising short dominance, more long liquidations, and failure to reclaim the high-$0.12s [31]
Scenario B: Relief rally / reversal attempt (bull case)
This scenario follows the crypto.news framework and requires DOGE to decisively reclaim overhead levels:
- Trigger: break and hold above ~$0.145 [32]
- Resistance checkpoints:~$0.1556 (50-day EMA cited by FXStreet) [33]
- Upside target discussed in today’s coverage:$0.20 (crypto.news) [34]
- What would invalidate it: a fall below $0.10, which crypto.news explicitly flags as a bullish thesis-breaker [35]
Longer-term outlook (2026): DOGE still trades more on narrative than fundamentals
Mainstream commentary published today continues to stress what DOGE holders already know (sometimes painfully): Dogecoin’s price behavior is heavily narrative-driven, and the token’s design includes an effectively unlimited supply—features that can amplify volatility and complicate long-term valuation narratives. [36]
That said, Dogecoin’s “real-world usage” story could get more tangible in 2026 if payments initiatives described by House of Doge translate into actual user growth and merchant adoption. [37]
What to watch next (the checklist that matters more than vibes)
Over the next 24–72 hours, DOGE traders will likely be focused on:
- Key levels: $0.123 (near-term trigger), $0.10 (psych support), $0.145 (bull trigger), ~$0.156 (resistance) [38]
- Derivatives positioning: whether short dominance continues building and whether liquidations accelerate [39]
- Macro catalysts and broader crypto direction: market caution into major events has been a recurring theme in today’s coverage [40]
- Follow-through on ecosystem headlines: especially any concrete details around payments rollouts and treasury-related announcements [41]
Dogecoin is ending 2025 in a familiar place: still one of the most watched memecoins on earth, still capable of violent rallies, and still vulnerable when speculative appetite fades. Today’s forecasts are sharply divided—but they’re unusually aligned on one point: the next durable trend likely starts at the levels now being tested. [42]
References
1. www.coingecko.com, 2. www.fxstreet.com, 3. www.coingecko.com, 4. www.coingecko.com, 5. www.coingecko.com, 6. www.coingecko.com, 7. www.coingecko.com, 8. www.benzinga.com, 9. www.fxstreet.com, 10. www.fxstreet.com, 11. www.fxstreet.com, 12. www.fxstreet.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. crypto.news, 15. www.fxstreet.com, 16. www.ccn.com, 17. crypto.news, 18. www.fxstreet.com, 19. www.benzinga.com, 20. www.fxstreet.com, 21. www.banklesstimes.com, 22. www.ccn.com, 23. crypto.news, 24. www.binance.com, 25. changelly.com, 26. www.globenewswire.com, 27. www.globenewswire.com, 28. www.globenewswire.com, 29. www.fxstreet.com, 30. www.fxstreet.com, 31. www.fxstreet.com, 32. crypto.news, 33. www.fxstreet.com, 34. crypto.news, 35. crypto.news, 36. www.fool.com, 37. www.globenewswire.com, 38. www.fxstreet.com, 39. www.fxstreet.com, 40. www.fxstreet.com, 41. www.globenewswire.com, 42. www.fxstreet.com
