Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) stock traded higher on Friday, December 19, 2025, as investors digested a fresh corporate update tied to Robinhood’s international crypto expansion and a steady drumbeat of bullish Wall Street commentary around the company’s fast-growing “prediction markets” business.
As of 15:14 UTC on Dec. 19, Robinhood shares were at $121.16, up $4.00 (+3.41%) on the day, after trading between $118.23 and $121.43 with volume around 6.0 million shares. HOOD’s market capitalization at that time was approximately $127.2 billion.
That move caps a week in which Robinhood has remained tightly linked to two narratives: (1) the industry-wide race to become a “one-stop” retail investing platform across stocks, crypto, and event-based contracts; and (2) the intensifying debate over how prediction markets should be regulated as they converge with traditional sports betting.
What’s moving Robinhood stock on Dec. 19, 2025
Friday’s momentum is being reinforced by two headline drivers:
- A new transaction update connected to Robinhood’s Canada roadmap
WonderFi Technologies Inc. said it signed an amendment to its arrangement agreement with Robinhood that extends the outside date for completing Robinhood’s proposed indirect acquisition of WonderFi to June 1, 2026. WonderFi said the extension is designed to provide additional time for integration work and regulatory approvals, while both companies continue to anticipate closing in the first half of 2026. [1] - Wall Street commentary that frames prediction markets as the next growth engine
Analysts have increasingly described prediction markets as a structurally new retail asset class—one Robinhood is positioned to monetize at scale. In a widely circulated line, Deutsche Bank has characterized the current phase as the early stages of a prediction-market “supercycle,” with estimates (via The Fly) that U.S. prediction markets could reach at least 1 trillion contracts in 2027 and well over 5 trillion contracts in 2029. [2]
WonderFi deal update: what changed, and why investors care
The WonderFi press release is dated Dec. 19, 2025 (8:30 a.m. ET)—making it one of the most direct, company-linked catalysts on the day for Robinhood investors focused on international growth.
WonderFi said the amended agreement extends the completion deadline to June 1, 2026 and noted that the parties have been advancing post-closing integration planning to facilitate Robinhood’s deployment of proprietary technology in Canada. WonderFi explicitly tied the extension to the additional time required for “integration enhancements” that involve further development work and regulatory approval. [3]
The release also included supportive statements from both sides, including WonderFi Special Committee Chair Paul Pathak and Robinhood Crypto SVP/GM Johann Kerbrat, emphasizing continued commitment to closing and building “user-centric crypto products” for Canadian customers. [4]
Why it matters for HOOD stock: Robinhood has been pitching a global fintech trajectory, and investors typically read deal updates like this as a signal on execution pace. An outside-date extension can cut both ways—more time to close and integrate, but also a reminder that regulatory and operational complexity remains a gating factor.
The forecast landscape: price targets cluster around the mid-$150s, with notable highs above $170
Analyst forecasts and price targets have been active in mid-December, and the range of published targets is wide—reflecting both the opportunity (new product revenue streams) and the risk (regulatory uncertainty and valuation sensitivity).
Truist: new coverage with a $155 target
Truist initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $155 price target, framing Robinhood as a share-gainer as its addressable market expands through newer product launches like prediction markets. [5]
Mizuho: reiterates Outperform, $172 target; raises 2026–2027 revenue estimates
Mizuho has kept an Outperform rating and a $172 price target, pointing to strong momentum in prediction markets. Investing.com reported Mizuho’s view that Robinhood is tracking toward about a $300 million run-rate for prediction markets in Q4, with 2.5 billion contracts in October, prompting the firm to lift its 2026–2027 revenue estimates by 6%–7%. [6]
A separate write-up tied to Mizuho analyst Dan Dolev also highlighted survey findings suggesting Robinhood users are more likely to fund prediction-market activity with “fresh money” (rather than selling crypto), a behavior difference viewed as supportive for incremental revenue. [7]
Deutsche Bank: Buy, $160 target; “supercycle” framing
Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating and a $160 target, pointing to Robinhood’s product and platform execution—such as access across mobile and desktop (including Robinhood’s Legend interface), plus features like real-time data and limit orders—as elements that could keep HOOD near the front of the pack if prediction markets continue scaling. [8]
Barclays: Overweight maintained; target raised to $171
Barclays has also been constructive. Multiple market-data and research aggregators reported Barclays raised its price target to $171 from $168 while maintaining an Overweight rating. [9]
Consensus snapshots differ by dataset—here’s how to read them
“Consensus” depends on source methodology and update cadence:
- MarketBeat showed an average price target of $137.25 and a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, based on a distribution of analyst ratings that includes Buy and Hold views. [10]
- A Nasdaq/Fintel-republished note cited an average one-year target of $153.88, with forecasts ranging from $86.86 to $189.00, and described that average as implying roughly 28.75% upside from a referenced closing price. [11]
- An Investing.com analysis published on Dec. 19 referenced a median price target of $155, also framing that level as about 28% upside over the next 12 months (based on prices at the time of writing). [12]
Takeaway: While exact “consensus” varies by provider, the center of gravity in current forecasts appears to be the mid-$150s, with several prominent bullish targets in the $160–$172 band.
Prediction markets are the growth story—here’s what the data points say
Robinhood’s prediction markets have shifted from “experimental feature” to a central investment thesis, and recent reporting has helped quantify the scale.
Robinhood expands sports-focused event contracts
Reuters has reported that Robinhood expanded its offerings with sports-focused event contracts that allow users to wager on specific player performance metrics and introduced “preset combos” that link multiple predictions into a single contract. Critics argue these resemble sports betting, while industry participants emphasize Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversight. [13]
Reuters also highlighted the sector’s acceleration, noting monthly trading values rising from under $100 million in early 2024 to over $13 billion—a context point investors often use to justify “early innings” growth narratives. [14]
Indicators of platform traction
A separate industry report described Robinhood’s prediction-market activity as scaling quickly, citing billions of contracts traded since launch and over one million participating users, with October volumes around 2.5 billion contracts and November volumes surpassing 3 billion. [15]
When paired with Mizuho’s estimate that prediction markets are on pace for an annualized run-rate near $300 million, the picture emerging for investors is that prediction markets could become a “material” line item rather than a niche engagement tool. [16]
Competition check: Coinbase moves deeper into Robinhood’s lane
Robinhood’s rally case is not unfolding in a vacuum. The broader retail trading battlefield is getting more crowded—especially as crypto-native firms try to become diversified “everything” platforms.
Reuters reported that Coinbase announced it would begin letting users trade stocks and event contracts (through a partnership with Kalshi) as it expands beyond crypto roots and competes more directly with brokerages including Robinhood and Interactive Brokers. [17]
Coinbase’s expansion comes with two implications for HOOD:
- Competitive pressure: If Coinbase successfully bundles crypto + stocks + event contracts, customer attention and trading volume could fragment across platforms. [18]
- Regulatory spotlight: Reuters noted heightened uncertainty for event contracts, with some state regulators trying to assert authority by arguing these products resemble betting—even as firms maintain that the CFTC is the primary regulator. [19]
In the same Reuters report, Citizens analysts were cited estimating prediction markets are generating nearly $2 billion in revenue today and could grow five-fold by 2030 as institutional participation expands—an industry-wide growth forecast that helps explain why multiple platforms are racing into the category. [20]
Beyond the U.S.: Robinhood’s global expansion push remains central to the HOOD narrative
Robinhood’s longer-term story—especially after its 2025 stock surge—has increasingly been framed as global and multi-product rather than U.S.-only and equity-only.
Indonesia expansion: acquisitions targeting a major crypto hub
Reuters reported earlier this month that Robinhood plans to acquire Indonesian brokerage firm Buana Capital Sekuritas and licensed digital asset trader Pedagang Aset Kripto, with a closing expected in the first half of 2026. Reuters also noted Robinhood joined the S&P 500 in 2025 and said shares were up nearly 268% in 2025 as of the Dec. 4 close. [21]
Zacks: Dec. 19 outlook highlights HOOD as a top-ranked name, points to tokenized stocks and earnings growth
A Zacks Industry Outlook published on Dec. 19, 2025 highlighted Robinhood among its favored industry names and pointed to expansion initiatives including:
- entry into Indonesia via the planned acquisitions,
- tokenized U.S. stocks and ETFs across multiple EU/EEA countries with 24/5 commission-free trading ambitions, and
- continued ecosystem build-out (IRAs, crypto wallets, prediction markets, and cash products). [22]
Zacks also cited consensus estimates implying year-over-year earnings growth of 79.8% (2025) and 17.9% (2026). [23]
Valuation and risk: why the same facts can produce wildly different HOOD targets
Robinhood’s current debate is less about whether it’s growing—many agree it is—and more about what multiple investors should pay for that growth.
- At mid-day Dec. 19 prices, HOOD’s trailing P/E was roughly 58 according to market data.
- An Investing.com analysis described a high valuation environment as well (citing a P/E around 48 at the time of its writing), while arguing that new growth areas like prediction markets could expand the company’s earnings power over time. [24]
Investors are essentially weighing three moving parts:
- Revenue mix durability (how cyclical is trading activity?)
- Regulatory outcomes (especially around event contracts that resemble sports betting) [25]
- Competitive intensity (Coinbase, Interactive Brokers, and others pushing into overlapping product sets) [26]
The bull and bear cases heading into 2026
The bullish case for Robinhood stock
- Prediction markets scale into meaningful revenue: Multiple analysts are now modeling material contributions, with run-rate estimates near $300 million and the “supercycle” thesis implying multi-year expansion potential. [27]
- Global growth optionality: Indonesia and Canada are framed as strategic entries, while Zacks points to tokenized stocks and broader international ambitions. [28]
- Platform consolidation: If retail investors increasingly prefer “one app” for stocks, crypto, and event contracts, Robinhood’s brand and product breadth could keep it on the short list of winners. [29]
The bearish case for Robinhood stock
- Regulatory tightening could cap upside: Reuters notes the tug-of-war between federal oversight claims and state-level pushback in event contracts. Any restrictions that limit product design, marketing, or available contracts could hit engagement and revenue forecasts. [30]
- Competition is accelerating: Coinbase’s move into stock trading and event contracts highlights how quickly rivals can copy the “super app” playbook. [31]
- Insider selling and sentiment swings: MarketBeat reported insider selling totaling about 3.69 million shares worth roughly $476 million over a recent 90-day period—information that can weigh on sentiment for momentum-heavy stocks. [32]
What to watch next
Investors following HOOD into year-end are likely to focus on:
- WonderFi transaction milestones: regulatory approvals, integration progress, and any updated timeline language—especially after the outside date was extended to June 1, 2026. [33]
- Prediction markets product expansion vs. regulatory response: further sports/event contract rollouts and how regulators respond as the category grows. [34]
- Competitive launches: Coinbase’s roadmap (including tokenized stocks “in the coming months,” per Reuters) and whether it shifts the retail trading landscape. [35]
- International execution: updates on the Indonesia acquisitions expected to close in the first half of 2026 and broader Asia-Pacific initiatives. [36]
References
1. www.newsfilecorp.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.newsfilecorp.com, 4. www.newsfilecorp.com, 5. www.marketbeat.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.tipranks.com, 9. www.tradingview.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.nasdaq.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.financemagnates.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.nasdaq.com, 23. www.nasdaq.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.investing.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.nasdaq.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.marketbeat.com, 33. www.newsfilecorp.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com
