Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Update: All Share at 114,850, ETFs Near R250bn, and the 2026 Outlook (as of 20 Dec 2025)

JOHANNESBURG — The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is heading into the year-end stretch with South African equities hovering near record territory, while the exchange’s product mix continues to evolve rapidly—especially through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and new listings tied to telecoms and technology.

With South Africa’s markets closed for the weekend, the latest official print shows the FTSE/JSE All Share at 114,850 and the Top 40 at 107,215 (both recorded at 19 December 2025, 17:05). ^[1]

That level puts the benchmark within striking distance of its recent highs: the Financial Times’ markets data page lists a 52‑week range topping out at 115,716.46, with a one‑year change of +35.97% (data delayed). ^[2]

Behind the headline numbers sits a familiar 2025 cocktail: precious-metals strength, improving local macro signals, and renewed investor attention to South Africa’s reform narrative. But the closer the JSE gets to year-end, the sharper the debate becomes: is this the start of a durable rerating—or the point where “good news” is already priced in?

Where the JSE stands going into the final stretch of 2025

The JSE’s momentum remains visible in the index tape. The exchange itself reported the All Share at 114,850 (+0.29%) and Top 40 at 107,215 (+0.35%) on 19 December. ^[3]

Market commentary in mid‑December has also stressed just how quickly sentiment shifted this year. BusinessLive cited a 37.8% gain in the All Share Index “this year” (as of the publication date), alongside a stronger rand and a firmer bond market—moves that were framed as a powerful rebound from depressed starting valuations. ^[4]

Independent market wrap commentary has echoed that strength, describing 2025 as a year in which the JSE pushed through landmark levels and benefited from improved domestic confidence and global risk appetite. ^[5]

Still, late‑cycle rallies come with a built‑in question: what happens when the tailwinds slow?

The macro backdrop: inflation eases, and rate-cut expectations shift into 2026

A key support for South African assets late in 2025 has been the disinflation story—and the market’s view that lower rates may have further to run.

Reuters reported that headline CPI eased to 3.5% y/y in November (from 3.6% in October), remaining within the tolerance band around the country’s new 3% target. The same report cited Capital Economics expecting 100 basis points of repo-rate cuts in 2026, and noted the SARB’s next rate announcement is scheduled for 29 January. ^[6]

Producer inflation has also been part of the picture. Reuters said PPI rose 2.9% y/y in November (unchanged from October), and cited Nedbank forecasting producer inflation rising to 3.3% in 2026. The report also referenced expectations for further SARB easing next year, while noting the JSE Top-40 was marginally lower at the time of publication. ^[7]

Currency matters here because the JSE is structurally sensitive to the rand—both through foreign flows and through heavyweight counters with global earnings. Reuters coverage this week highlighted a stronger rand supported by gold prices, including an ETM Analytics view that USD/ZAR could test the 16.60s before year-end if the trend persists. ^[8]

Taken together, late‑2025 macro signals have helped underpin a “lower discount rate” narrative—one reason strategists keep circling back to domestic stocks that lagged the commodity-led run.

2026 forecasts: the big bull case is “SA Inc” catching up

One of the most discussed late‑December calls is that South Africa’s domestically focused shares—banks, retailers, and industrial firms—could be next in line.

In a Bloomberg‑sourced Moneyweb report published 18 December, veteran fund manager John Biccard (Ninety One) argued that non‑commodity South African companies look positioned to rally in 2026 because they trade at a deep discount and underperformed bonds and the broader equity gauge in 2025. The report pointed to a sharp fall in long‑bond yields as a valuation tailwind and described “SA Inc” shares as having “lagged massively.” ^[9]

The same piece described how precious-metals strength helped drive a more than 50% rise in South Africa’s benchmark equity index in US dollar terms in 2025, while local bonds delivered strong returns—supporting the argument that equity valuations could adjust higher if growth and rates cooperate. ^[10]

But optimism isn’t uncontested.

BusinessLive quoted investment commentary warning that “a lot of the good news is in the price,” suggesting fewer tailwinds in 2026 and calling for more caution after the rally in South African assets. ^[11]

So the 2026 outlook is shaping up as a tug-of-war between rerating potential (lower rates, improving confidence, attractive valuations in parts of the market) and the risk that markets have already pulled forward much of the good news.

ETFs on the JSE: the quiet powerhouse nearing R250bn

While the headlines often fixate on the Top 40, a major structural story at the JSE right now is product growth—especially ETFs and actively managed ETFs.

BusinessLive reported in December that South Africa’s ETF industry, listed on the JSE, is fast approaching R250bn, with about 126 funds on the bourse and rising demand for diversified global access. ^[12]

That same report flagged the listing of the Satrix Global Property Feeder ETF, which gives investors access to global real estate through a locally listed instrument. ^[13]

The JSE’s own press release on that product (published 11 December 2025) puts hard numbers behind the trend: it said the listing brought the number of ETFs listed on the JSE to 126, with market capitalisation exceeding R247.9bn. ^[14]

Separately, the JSE also announced (11 December) the listing of two Allan Gray–Orbis feeder Actively Managed ETFs (AMETFs), describing AMETFs as one of the fastest-growing segments of its product suite following regulatory reforms introduced in 2022 that enabled their listing. ^[15]

For investors, this matters for two reasons:

It deepens liquidity and broadens the set of tools available on the JSE (particularly for offshore exposure in rand terms).
It signals where demand is going—simple, tradable, diversified products that can fit both retail and institutional portfolios.

Listings and delistings: telecoms and tech activity, but churn continues

The JSE has been vocal about rebuilding its listings pipeline, and late 2025 brought one of the most closely watched additions in years: Cell C.

In a JSE press release dated 27 November 2025, the exchange said it welcomed the listing of Cell C Holdings Limited to the Main Board (via The Prepaid Company, a Blu Label subsidiary). The JSE cited an offer price of R26.50 per share and an indicative market capitalisation of about R9bn at listing, framing the move as part of a restructuring aimed at improved access to equity capital and liquidity. ^[16]

That statement also included a broader snapshot of the market’s scale at the time: the JSE said it was home to 275 companies with an overall market capitalisation of R23.6 trillion, and described a “constructive pipeline” of new listings and capital-raising transactions. ^[17]

At the same time, the “new listings” story is competing with continued churn—particularly delistings and corporate relocations.

News24 published a review of 2025’s listings/delistings and said the JSE attracted two new primary listings in 2025 (both in tech) and six overall—a sign of improvement, but not yet a flood. ^[18]

On the delisting front, BusinessLive reported in December that Renergen is set to delist from the JSE after listing on the Nasdaq, underscoring that global capital access and sector-specific funding needs can pull companies away from the local market. ^[19]

Bottom line: the JSE’s pipeline is showing life, but the exchange is still fighting a multi-year battle to keep listings sticky—especially for growth companies that can raise capital offshore.

Regulation and competition: the A2X rivalry moves into a tribunal phase

One of the most consequential non-market stories around the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is the competition case that could shape how South Africa’s equity trading ecosystem works.

Reuters reported on 10 November that South Africa’s Competition Commission referred the JSE to the Competition Tribunal over alleged anti-competitive conduct dating back to 2017, seeking a fine of up to 10% of annual turnover. The report said the case centers on the JSE’s Broker Dealer Accounting (BDA) system and how matched principal trades are handled, with rival A2X Markets highlighted as a complainant. ^[20]

The JSE’s own SENS announcement the same day stated it is preparing its plea, expected to be filed in early 2026, and said it denies the allegations “in the strongest possible terms.” ^[21]

For market participants, the issue is bigger than legal drama: it goes to the economics of trading, post-trade systems, and whether South Africa evolves toward a more fragmented, multi-venue model—or remains centered on the incumbent exchange’s infrastructure.

Sector lens: banks back in focus as rates fall and confidence improves

If 2025’s “headline trade” leaned heavily into precious metals and rand sensitivity, December research has started turning attention back to financials—especially banks.

A Bloomberg‑sourced Moneyweb report on 11 December said South African bank shares rallied after JPMorgan upgraded the country’s financial sector to overweight, citing an improving macro backdrop, attractive valuations, and a positive earnings outlook. The report said JPMorgan forecast 11% average EPS growth for banks in the next financial year and 10% the year after, while noting many banks traded at P/E multiples below 10. ^[22]

That’s consistent with the broader “2026 rerating” argument: if inflation stays contained and rates drift lower, bank earnings and household credit demand could become more supportive—while valuation gaps close.

What to watch next: practical catalysts for the JSE in early 2026

With the JSE heading into a holiday-thinned trading period and then a new year, the next big catalysts are likely to cluster around a few themes:

SARB policy and inflation prints: With the next SARB decision set for 29 January, markets will be sensitive to any sign the disinflation trend is stalling—or accelerating. ^[23]
Rand direction and commodity prices: Reuters reporting this week tied rand strength to gold dynamics and risk sentiment, and those drivers remain central for both miners and rand-hedge heavyweights. ^[24]
Domestic “SA Inc” earnings and guidance: The case for banks, retailers, and industrials depends on whether companies confirm improving demand, stabilising logistics, and pricing power—especially as investors rotate out of crowded commodity trades. ^[25]
Market structure and the competition case: The Competition Tribunal process is likely to become a 2026 narrative thread for the exchange and the trading ecosystem. ^[26]
ETFs and new product flow: The ETF market is already near R250bn in size and continues to broaden—an area to watch for new listings and investor adoption. ^[27]

The takeaway: a stronger JSE, but 2026 is about durability, not just momentum

As of 20 December 2025, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is ending the year in a markedly stronger position than it started: benchmark indices near record territory, inflation easing, rate-cut expectations building for 2026, and an exchange product ecosystem expanding quickly through ETFs and actively managed ETFs. ^[28]

But the market’s next chapter hinges on whether the rally broadens beyond commodities and rand hedges into the domestic core—and whether South Africa’s improving macro narrative translates into sustained earnings upgrades and durable foreign inflows. ^[29]