Robinhood Markets, Inc. (NASDAQ: HOOD) is closing out mid-December with investor attention locked on a single theme: the company’s rapid shift from a “commission-free broker” into a broader trading-and-betting marketplace, powered by prediction markets, expanding crypto capabilities, and new international growth bets.
HOOD last traded around $121.35 (based on the latest U.S. market close), giving Robinhood a market value of roughly $127 billion and putting the stock well off its 52-week high near $153.86 after one of its strongest years since going public. [1]
What’s different right now isn’t just the share price—it’s what investors believe Robinhood is becoming. In the span of a few weeks, the company has:
- broadened sports-focused event contracts (prediction markets) as competition accelerates [2]
- faced fresh state-level pushback on whether those contracts resemble unlicensed sports gambling [3]
- reported November platform metrics that show event contracts rising even as some traditional trading volumes cooled month over month [4]
- pushed further into Asia with an Indonesia entry plan built on acquiring regulated local firms [5]
Below is a comprehensive roundup of the key news, the most relevant forecasts, and the major analytical narratives shaping HOOD stock as of 20.12.2025.
HOOD stock snapshot: where shares stand heading into late December
Robinhood shares last closed at $121.35, after trading between roughly $118 and $123 in the session, with volume near 27 million shares. [6]
A few fast context points investors are watching:
- Valuation: HOOD’s trailing P/E is roughly 58 based on recent market data, underscoring how much growth is already priced in.
- Volatility profile: After an explosive 2025 run, HOOD’s trading is increasingly sensitive to product headlines—especially around prediction markets and crypto-related expansion. [7]
- 2025 performance: Reuters noted earlier this month that HOOD was up nearly 268% year-to-date as of the Dec. 4 close, illustrating just how strong the rally has been even before the latest news cycle. [8]
That rally matters because many current “bull vs. bear” debates about Robinhood hinge on a single question: Are prediction markets and new trading verticals durable, regulated revenue streams—or a regulatory flashpoint that could cap the upside?
The biggest December catalyst: prediction markets shift from politics to sports
Sports is now the growth engine for event contracts
A key narrative emerging in late 2025 is that prediction markets—once dominated by politics—are increasingly sports-led, and Robinhood is positioning itself directly in the path of that demand.
MarketWatch reports that sports contracts have become the primary driver of prediction-market activity, highlighting Kalshi’s surge (including volume reportedly reaching $5.8 billion in November 2025, with 91% from sports), while naming Robinhood among the platforms pushing further into the category. [9]
Barron’s goes a step further, framing prediction markets as an emerging financial “format” that could rival traditional trading experiences, noting Robinhood’s deep involvement and estimating that prediction markets are already producing about $100 million in annualized revenue for Robinhood. [10]
Reuters: Robinhood expands sports event contracts (including player-performance markets and “preset combos”)
On December 17, Reuters reported that Robinhood rolled out new sports-focused event contracts allowing customers to trade on individual player performance outcomes (such as touchdowns or yardage), expanding beyond simply betting on the final game result. Reuters also highlighted Robinhood’s launch of “preset combos” that bundle multiple predictions into one contract—functionally similar to parlay-style logic, even if packaged as regulated event contracts. [11]
The same Reuters report points to the broader industry scale-up: the monthly value of prediction-market trades has climbed to more than $13 billion, up from under $100 million in early 2024, according to a report Reuters cited from Keyrock and Dune. [12]
Axios: Robinhood pairs prediction markets with AI tools (Cortex and Digests)
Axios described Robinhood’s strategy as a bet on the convergence of AI + prediction markets, spotlighting the rollout of “Cortex,” an AI-powered investing assistant for Gold subscribers, and emphasizing Robinhood’s intent to offer thousands of live events across categories such as politics, economics, culture and sports. [13]
Axios also cited Robinhood’s internal milestone claims: more than 1 million customers and 11 billion contracts traded since prediction markets debuted late last year, and characterized prediction markets as Robinhood’s fastest-growing revenue line. [14]
Taken together, the December storyline is clear: Robinhood isn’t treating event contracts as an experiment anymore. It’s marketing them as a core pillar—then wrapping them in AI to increase engagement, retention, and (ultimately) monetization.
The regulatory overhang: state pushback vs. federal derivatives oversight
The most important risk factor for HOOD right now is not whether customers will trade event contracts—it’s how regulators ultimately classify and police them.
Connecticut orders Robinhood Derivatives to cease and desist sports event contracts
On December 3, 2025, Connecticut’s Department of Consumer Protection (DCP) Gaming Division announced it issued cease-and-desist orders to Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, Kalshi, and Crypto.com over what it described as unlicensed online gambling, specifically sports wagering, offered without a state license. [15]
The Connecticut release states the platforms were ordered to immediately stop offering or promoting “sports event contracts” to Connecticut residents and to allow residents to withdraw funds held by the platforms. [16]
This is crucial for investors because it sets up a potential clash between:
- the argument that event contracts are federally regulated derivatives (often associated with CFTC oversight), and
- the counterargument from some states that sports-linked contracts function as sports betting and should be regulated (or prohibited) under state gaming laws. [17]
The CFTC has intervened before—showing federal scrutiny can tighten quickly
Even before the December state actions, Robinhood has dealt with federal sensitivity around sports markets.
Investopedia reported that in February 2025, Robinhood suspended a “Pro Football Championship” event-contract promotion after receiving a request from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to not permit customers to access sports event contracts tied to that promotion, noting it reached only a small fraction of users before being paused. [18]
For HOOD shareholders, that earlier episode matters because it demonstrates a key point: even if prediction markets sit within a federal framework, regulators can still apply pressure that changes product rollout speed, availability, and revenue timing. [19]
Under the hood: November operating data shows event contracts rising as some trading cooled
Robinhood’s monthly metrics remain a core input for short-term sentiment, because they reveal whether new products are translating into sustained activity—not just headlines.
In its November 2025 operating data, Robinhood reported:
- Funded customers:26.9 million, down ~130k month over month, but up ~2.10 million year over year (with a notable distortion from the required escheatment of ~280k low-balance accounts). [20]
- Total platform assets: about $325 billion, down 5% month over month but up 67% year over year. [21]
- Net deposits:$7.1 billion in November; $70.2 billion over the last 12 months. [22]
- Event contracts traded:3.0 billion, up 20% from October. [23]
- Equity notional trading volumes:$201.5 billion (down 37% from October; up 37% year over year). [24]
- Options contracts traded:193.2 million (down 28% from October; up 24% year over year). [25]
- Crypto notional trading volumes:$28.6 billion (down 12% month over month; down 19% year over year), with Robinhood App crypto volumes down sharply year-over-year while Bitstamp volumes represented a large portion of total crypto notional volume. [26]
The market takeaway from these numbers is nuanced:
- Event contracts are accelerating (at least sequentially).
- Robinhood’s “classic” activity drivers (equities/options/crypto) can swing materially month to month—meaning the company’s results still have meaningful cyclical exposure. [27]
Fundamentals: Q3 2025 results show profitability and diversification are no longer just a narrative
While December headlines are product-heavy, HOOD’s valuation is ultimately anchored to whether the business can keep producing real earnings at scale.
In its third-quarter 2025 results (reported Nov. 5, 2025), Robinhood posted:
- Total net revenues:$1.27 billion, up 100% year-over-year (record). [28]
- Net income:$556 million, up 271% year-over-year. [29]
- Diluted EPS:$0.61, up 259% year-over-year. [30]
- Transaction-based revenues:$730 million, with crypto revenue $268 million, options $304 million, and equities $86 million. [31]
- Net interest revenues:$456 million, up 66% year-over-year (with commentary noting impacts including lower short-term interest rates). [32]
- Robinhood Gold subscribers:3.9 million (record). [33]
- Net deposits:$20.4 billion for the quarter (record). [34]
- Total platform assets:$333 billion (up 119% year-over-year). [35]
Crucially, Robinhood framed prediction markets and Bitstamp as newly scaled revenue lines—suggesting the company believes it’s building multiple $100M+ annualized revenue “legs”, rather than relying on a single trading boom. [36]
Global expansion: Robinhood targets Indonesia as a regulated on-ramp to Southeast Asia
On December 8, 2025, Reuters reported Robinhood plans to enter Indonesia by acquiring:
- Buana Capital Sekuritas (a local brokerage firm), and
- Pedagang Aset Kripto (a licensed digital asset trader). [37]
Reuters reported the company expects the deal to close in the first half of 2026 and noted Indonesia’s scale—more than 19 million capital market investors and 17 million crypto traders—as a key strategic attraction. [38]
For HOOD stock, this move reinforces two investor themes:
- Robinhood wants growth beyond the U.S., but it’s pursuing it via regulated acquisition pathways, not purely organic launches. [39]
- International expansion may increasingly be tied to crypto adoption, given Indonesia’s crypto participation and Robinhood’s own emphasis on digital assets and related products. [40]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: price targets in the mid-$150s, but the debate is about regulation and durability
Street targets: bullish skew, but dispersion remains wide
According to MarketWatch’s analyst estimate snapshot, Robinhood’s average price target sits around $155.29 (with 25 analyst ratings counted in that snapshot). [41]
That figure matters because it implies analysts (in aggregate) still see upside—yet it’s not “open sky” upside given how far HOOD has already run.
Recent calls highlight prediction markets as a core growth driver
In late-December commentary cited by Investing.com, Deutsche Bank maintained a buy stance and characterized the prediction market opportunity as a developing “supercycle,” while another notable development was Truist initiating coverage with a Buy rating and a $155 price target, explicitly pointing to product launches (including prediction markets) as a driver of share gains. [42]
Meanwhile, Reuters-style event-contract headlines and state actions highlight why forecasts can change quickly: if state-by-state enforcement spreads, product availability could be disrupted; if federal frameworks solidify, the category could broaden. [43]
The near-term setup: HOOD has momentum, but expectations are high
HOOD’s current valuation level (with a P/E near ~58 based on recent data) reflects meaningful embedded optimism.
In practical terms, that means future upside often depends on one or more of the following:
- prediction markets scaling without major regulatory setbacks,
- continued growth in Gold subscribers and advisory/wealth products,
- crypto cycle tailwinds and product expansion, and
- sustained net deposits and platform asset growth translating into durable earnings power. [44]
What to watch next: the 2026 catalyst calendar for Robinhood stock
Here are the catalysts most likely to shape HOOD’s next leg—up or down:
- Q4 earnings timing (mid-February 2026 expected by calendars): Several market calendars estimate Robinhood’s next earnings window in mid-February 2026, though the company’s confirmed date can differ from third-party estimates. [45]
- Prediction markets regulatory trajectory: Watch for additional state actions like Connecticut’s, and for broader clarity on how sports-linked event contracts will be treated across jurisdictions. [46]
- Exchange and clearing ambitions: Robinhood and Susquehanna’s plan to take over LedgerX and build a futures/derivatives exchange and clearinghouse is expected to close in early 2026 (per Reuters), which could become a longer-term structural catalyst if executed smoothly. [47]
- Indonesia acquisition progress: The path to closing and integrating regulated Indonesian entities in the first half of 2026 is a tangible milestone for the international growth story. [48]
- Competitive pressure: Coinbase and other platforms are pushing into prediction markets and broader trading offerings, intensifying the battle for the “all-in-one” retail trading customer. [49]
Bottom line for HOOD stock on Dec. 20, 2025
As of 20.12.2025, Robinhood stock is being valued less like a simple brokerage and more like a high-growth trading platform spanning equities, options, crypto, subscriptions, AI-driven tooling—and now, increasingly, sports-centric prediction markets. [50]
The bull case is straightforward: prediction markets are scaling quickly, Robinhood is layering AI features and product velocity on top, and the company’s recent earnings and deposits show real profitability momentum. [51]
The bear case is equally clear: the same product line driving the most excitement is also the one most exposed to regulatory classification risk, especially at the state level—creating headline-driven volatility in a stock already priced for strong growth. [52]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. portal.ct.gov, 4. markets.businessinsider.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.marketwatch.com, 10. www.barrons.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.axios.com, 14. www.axios.com, 15. portal.ct.gov, 16. portal.ct.gov, 17. portal.ct.gov, 18. www.investopedia.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. markets.businessinsider.com, 21. markets.businessinsider.com, 22. markets.businessinsider.com, 23. markets.businessinsider.com, 24. markets.businessinsider.com, 25. markets.businessinsider.com, 26. markets.businessinsider.com, 27. markets.businessinsider.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.sec.gov, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. www.sec.gov, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. www.sec.gov, 36. www.sec.gov, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. www.reuters.com, 40. www.reuters.com, 41. www.marketwatch.com, 42. www.investing.com, 43. portal.ct.gov, 44. www.sec.gov, 45. www.nasdaq.com, 46. portal.ct.gov, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. www.reuters.com, 49. www.investors.com, 50. www.sec.gov, 51. www.sec.gov, 52. portal.ct.gov
