As of Sunday, December 21, 2025, Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: FOLD) has effectively become a “deal stock” — the market is now trading the shares primarily on the odds and timing of a takeover rather than on classic biotech catalysts.
The reason is simple: on December 19, 2025, BioMarin Pharmaceutical announced a definitive agreement to acquire Amicus for $14.50 per share in cash, valuing Amicus at about $4.8 billion. [1]
With U.S. markets closed this weekend, the last meaningful read is Friday’s action: Market data services show Amicus closing around $14.20 on Dec. 19, with trading also widely reported near $14.18 — now just a few dimes below the buyout price. [2]
Below is what matters most for investors in Amicus stock right now: the deal terms, the latest corporate and legal developments disclosed alongside the transaction, where analyst forecasts stand as of Dec. 21, and the main risks that could widen or close the “merger spread” between today’s price and the $14.50 payout.
The headline driver: BioMarin is buying Amicus for $14.50 per share (all-cash)
BioMarin and Amicus announced that BioMarin will acquire Amicus for $14.50 per share in an all-cash transaction, for an equity value of approximately $4.8 billion. The boards of both companies unanimously approved the deal, and Amicus’ board unanimously recommended shareholders vote in favor. [3]
BioMarin highlighted the premium structure in unusually explicit terms:
- 33% premium to Amicus’ prior close
- 46% premium to the 30-day VWAP (volume-weighted average price)
- 58% premium to the 60-day VWAP [4]
That premium math aligns with the widely cited pre-deal closing price of about $10.89. [5]
Expected closing window: Q2 2026 — with a formal “end date” and extensions
The companies said they expect to close the transaction in Q2 2026, subject to regulatory clearances, shareholder approval, and other customary conditions. [6]
Amicus’ SEC filing adds more precision: if the merger hasn’t closed by June 19, 2026 (midnight Eastern), either party can terminate — but the agreement provides for two automatic three‑month extensions under certain conditions, particularly where the remaining hurdle is antitrust/FDI review. [7]
Financing: not conditional — but funded with cash + ~$3.7B debt
BioMarin stated the deal is not subject to financing conditions. BioMarin intends to finance it through a combination of cash on hand and approximately $3.7 billion of non-convertible debt, backed by a bridge commitment from Morgan Stanley. [8]
Reuters also reported that BioMarin had about $2 billion in cash and investments at the end of September 2025, supporting the “cash + debt” structure. [9]
Why BioMarin wants Amicus: two commercial rare-disease drugs + a late-stage asset
BioMarin’s rationale is straightforward: Amicus brings two marketed therapies in rare genetic diseases, plus pipeline optionality.
BioMarin and Amicus emphasized the two commercial products:
- Galafold (migalastat) for Fabry disease
- Pombiliti (cipaglucosidase alfa-atga) + Opfolda (miglustat) for Pompe disease [10]
BioMarin said these products generated $599 million in revenue over the past four quarters. [11]
BioPharma Dive put additional color on the 2025 trajectory: Galafold (first approved in 2018) generated $371 million in the first nine months of 2025, and Pombiliti+Opfolda generated $77 million over the same period. [12]
On pipeline, multiple reports note that Amicus also holds U.S. rights to DMX‑200, a Phase 3 program for focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS), a rare kidney disease. [13]
Amicus’ latest fundamentals: revenue growth plus a profitable quarter
Even though the deal now dominates the stock story, Amicus’ recent financial performance explains why the company was attractive — and why the pre-deal analyst community had started warming up again.
From Amicus’ Form 10‑Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2025:
- Net product sales (Q3 2025): $169.061 million, up from $141.517 million in Q3 2024
- Net product sales (first nine months 2025): $448.998 million, up from $378.589 million in the prior-year period [14]
By product (Q3 2025):
- Galafold total sales: $138.347 million
- Pombiliti + Opfolda total sales: $30.714 million [15]
Profitability inflection (Q3 2025):
- Net income attributable to common stockholders: $17.306 million (vs. a loss in Q3 2024)
- Basic and diluted EPS: $0.06 for the quarter [16]
Management also attributed the year-over-year sales increase to continued product growth in Europe and the U.S., plus a favorable foreign-exchange impact. [17]
A subtle but important pipeline detail appears in the same filing: Amicus’ R&D expense for the first nine months includes a $30.0 million upfront license payment to Dimerix, tied to the DMX‑200 program — evidence that Amicus had begun reinvesting in “next act” assets even as it scaled the commercial franchise. [18]
A second major news item bundled with the deal: Galafold patent litigation resolved, U.S. generic entry pushed to 2037
Alongside the acquisition announcement, BioMarin/Amicus disclosed that Amicus resolved U.S. patent litigation involving generic challengers Aurobindo and Lupin related to Galafold 123 mg capsules.
Under the settlement structure described in the announcement, Amicus will grant licenses allowing generic versions to be marketed in the U.S. beginning January 30, 2037 (if FDA-approved), subject to customary settlement conditions. The companies also said the confidential license agreements will be submitted to the FTC and DOJ as required. [19]
BioMarin further said that, based on these settlements, U.S. exclusivity for Galafold is expected through January 2037. [20]
For Amicus shareholders, this matters because the durability of Galafold cash flows is a big part of any valuation model — and it reduces one of the classic overhangs on commercial-stage biotech stocks: “when do the generics show up?”
What happened to FOLD stock: the buyout price is now the “gravity well”
With a fixed cash payout on the table, Amicus stock has moved into a different market physics regime:
- After the announcement, Amicus shares jumped roughly 30% (depending on the reference point and timestamp). [21]
- Data services show the stock around $14.18 as the last reported level, compared with a prior close around $10.89. [22]
As of Dec. 21, the key number for investors isn’t “what’s the next earnings beat?” — it’s the merger spread.
With Friday’s close near $14.20 and the deal price $14.50, the remaining upside to the payout is roughly $0.30 per share before taxes/fees — about 2%. [23]
In merger-arbitrage terms, that 2% gap is the market’s live, constantly updated opinion about deal risk and time-to-close.
Analyst forecasts as of Dec. 21, 2025: two realities at once
Right now, “forecast” has to be handled carefully, because Amicus is straddling two worlds:
- Standalone forecasts (what analysts thought FOLD could be worth as an independent company)
- Deal-constrained forecasts (what the stock can be worth if the merger closes at $14.50)
Standalone view (pre-deal): targets in the mid-teens were common
Just a week before the acquisition news, a Zacks/Nasdaq write-up cited a mean price target of $15.9 (range $11 to $21) based on 10 analysts — implying large upside from the then-price near $9.90. [24]
MarketBeat’s consensus snapshot around the deal date similarly lists a consensus price target of $16.36, with a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating, though such aggregates can lag fast-moving M&A events. [25]
Deal-constrained reality: targets are being reset to ~$14.50
Once a definitive cash price is announced, many brokers move to “neutral/hold” style ratings, because upside is mechanically capped unless a higher bid appears.
Examples of post-announcement adjustments reported in market coverage include Cantor Fitzgerald shifting to a Neutral stance with a $14.50 target, aligning with the cash consideration. [26]
Industry reporters also framed the strategic logic as clear but not risk-free. BioPharma Dive cited a Stifel analyst noting that the acquisition is “fairly large” by BioMarin’s standards and effectively a major bet on the peak-sales potential of the two marketed assets. [27]
The merger agreement details investors are now watching most
Because Amicus is now priced like a pending transaction, the important questions are legal and procedural:
1) Shareholder vote + proxy process
The deal requires approval by Amicus stockholders. The companies have already said the board recommends adoption; the next practical milestone is the merger proxy filing and the vote timeline. [28]
2) Antitrust review (HSR) and other clearances
The companies explicitly listed HSR waiting-period expiration/termination and other antitrust clearances as closing conditions. [29]
In the early analyst commentary summarized by BioPharma Dive, one view was that FTC pushback is not expected to be a major obstacle — but that’s still something the market will price day by day until clearance is secured. [30]
3) Termination fee and the “no-shop” mechanics
Amicus’ 8‑K lays out a $175 million termination fee payable under certain scenarios (for example, if Amicus accepts a superior offer or makes certain recommendation changes, among other triggers). [31]
That fee is meant to discourage casual interlopers — and it’s why “will another bidder top this?” is usually more complicated than headlines suggest.
4) What equity awards get paid
The same 8‑K explains that, at closing, common shares convert into $14.50 cash, and equity awards like in-the-money options and RSUs generally convert into cash payments based on the merger consideration, subject to detailed terms. [32]
Another current “headline stream”: shareholder investigation announcements
In the days after a takeover is announced, it’s common to see law firms issue press releases announcing investigations into whether the board obtained a fair price and made sufficient disclosures.
For Amicus, at least two such notices were distributed publicly, including one from Halper Sadeh and one from the Ademi Firm, both referencing the $14.50 per share consideration and potential fiduciary-duty/disclosure issues. [33]
These announcements do not automatically mean litigation will materially change the deal. But they can sometimes affect timelines if they lead to additional disclosures or settlements.
What happens next for Amicus stock: the three scenarios the market is pricing
With the stock trading close to $14.50, the near-term future is basically a fork in the probability tree:
- Deal closes on schedule (base case priced by the market): shareholders receive $14.50 in cash. [34]
- Deal delayed: the stock may drift below $14.50 as investors demand a larger “time premium” for waiting, especially if regulatory review stretches toward the formal end date. [35]
- Deal breaks: the stock would likely re-rate toward a standalone valuation (often near the pre-deal range), though the fundamental story would still include strong 2025 sales growth and the clarified Galafold exclusivity runway. [36]
None of these outcomes is destiny — but as of Dec. 21, they’re the only narratives that really move the tape.
Bottom line
On December 21, 2025, Amicus Therapeutics stock (FOLD) is no longer trading primarily as a rare-disease growth biotech. It is trading as a pending cash acquisition — with the share price pinned near $14.50 and the remaining upside reflecting closing risk and timing.
The biggest “new” developments investors need to know right now are:
- The definitive $14.50 all-cash deal and its Q2 2026 target close [37]
- The $175M termination fee and the formal June 19, 2026 end date (plus extensions) [38]
- The Galafold patent litigation settlement that points to U.S. generic entry in 2037 [39]
- The financial foundation underneath it all: Q3 net product sales of $169.1M and Q3 net income of $17.3M [40]
References
1. www.sec.gov, 2. www.marketbeat.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.sec.gov, 5. www.barrons.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.biomarin.com, 11. www.sec.gov, 12. www.biopharmadive.com, 13. www.biomarin.com, 14. files.quartr.com, 15. files.quartr.com, 16. files.quartr.com, 17. files.quartr.com, 18. files.quartr.com, 19. www.sec.gov, 20. www.biomarin.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investing.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.nasdaq.com, 25. www.marketbeat.com, 26. www.marketbeat.com, 27. www.biopharmadive.com, 28. www.sec.gov, 29. www.sec.gov, 30. www.biopharmadive.com, 31. www.sec.gov, 32. www.sec.gov, 33. www.businesswire.com, 34. www.sec.gov, 35. www.sec.gov, 36. files.quartr.com, 37. www.sec.gov, 38. www.sec.gov, 39. www.sec.gov, 40. files.quartr.com
