Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) ends the week of December 21, 2025 with investors juggling two very “2025” narratives at once: a real, measurable surge in AI-driven networking demand—and a reminder that a company selling critical infrastructure will always live under the spotlight of cybersecurity risk.
With U.S. markets closed over the weekend, CSCO’s latest print is the Friday, Dec. 19 close at $78.42, after a choppy but resilient mid-December tape that included heavy volume and a notable rebound late in the week. [1]
What makes this moment unusually interesting is that Cisco has recently done something that once seemed almost mythical: it revisited—and briefly exceeded—its dot-com-era highs. The stock closed at $80.25 on Dec. 10, topping the long-standing March 2000 peak, before pulling back to the high-$70s. [2]
Below is the full, up-to-date (as of 21.12.2025) roundup of current CSCO stock news, company forecasts, and market analysis—and what investors are watching next.
CSCO stock price action: record highs, then digestion
Cisco’s trading in December has looked less like a sleepy dividend tech name and more like a “re-rated” infrastructure winner:
- Dec. 10: CSCO closed at $80.25 after trading as high as roughly $80.81 intraday (per historical pricing data). [3]
- Dec. 19: CSCO closed at $78.42, with the day’s range and volume suggesting active positioning into year-end. [4]
That’s only about a 2–3% pullback from the breakout area—less “reversal” and more classic “new-high digestion,” especially for a mega-cap that’s been re-framed as a credible AI infrastructure beneficiary.
The key question for the next leg isn’t whether Cisco can sell switches and routers (it can). It’s whether Cisco can sustain AI order momentum long enough for the market to treat the move above dot-com highs as structural—not symbolic.
The core bullish driver: AI infrastructure orders are accelerating
Cisco’s most market-moving fundamental datapoint in late 2025 has been simple: AI-related infrastructure orders are ramping faster than expected, particularly from hyperscalers.
In its fiscal Q1 2026 results (quarter ended Oct. 25, 2025), Cisco reported:
- Product orders up 13% year over year
- AI Infrastructure orders from hyperscaler customers totaling $1.3 billion (a sharp acceleration)
- A “multi-year, multi-billion-dollar campus networking refresh cycle” underway, with next-gen products—including WiFi 7—ramping faster than prior launches [5]
This matters for CSCO stock because it addresses the market’s long-standing skepticism: that Cisco is “too mature” to catch the next wave. AI data centers and AI-enabled campus upgrades are giving Cisco a plausible path to faster growth without needing a consumer-style breakout product.
Cisco also anchored that AI momentum in fiscal-year context. In its FY 2025 results, the company said AI infrastructure orders from webscale customers exceeded $800 million in Q4 and totaled over $2 billion for FY2025 (more than double its original $1 billion target). [6]
Cisco’s official forecast: FY2026 guidance raised, Q2 outlook set
For stock investors, “AI orders” becomes far more real when it shows up in revenue and earnings guidance. Cisco’s latest guidance framework (current as of Dec. 21, 2025) includes:
Fiscal Q2 2026 guidance (the “January quarter”)
- Revenue: $15.0B to $15.2B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $1.01 to $1.03 [7]
Full-year FY2026 guidance
- Revenue: $60.2B to $61.0B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $4.08 to $4.14 [8]
Cisco also notes that margin/EPS guidance includes the estimated impact of tariffs based on current trade policy, which is a subtle but important uncertainty flag for hardware-heavy supply chains. [9]
Reuters reported additional color around the AI thesis behind that raised outlook, including management commentary that Cisco expects $3 billion in AI infrastructure revenue from hyperscalers in FY2026—a meaningful attempt to connect “orders” to actual revenue streams. [10]
What that implies for valuation: Using the Dec. 19 close ($78.42) and Cisco’s FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guide ($4.08–$4.14), CSCO trades around ~19x forward earnings on that guidance range (a rough, back-of-the-envelope calculation using Cisco’s own forecast and the latest close). [11]
Shareholder returns: dividend + buybacks stay aggressive
Cisco is also doing what Cisco has done well for years: sending cash back to shareholders.
From the fiscal Q1 2026 release:
- Cisco returned $3.6B to stockholders in the quarter through buybacks and dividends
- It repurchased ~29 million shares at an average price of $68.28 (about $2.0B)
- Remaining repurchase authorization: $12.2B
- Quarterly dividend: $0.41 per share, payable Jan. 21, 2026 to shareholders of record Jan. 2, 2026 [12]
For CSCO stock, this matters in two ways:
- It can cushion drawdowns during macro shocks.
- It supports the “quality compounder” narrative while the market waits to see whether AI demand turns into a multi-year growth cycle.
The analyst forecast picture: price targets rise, but expectations rise too
Wall Street’s near-term posture on Cisco has been getting more constructive—especially after Cisco’s raised FY2026 outlook and hyperscaler AI order acceleration. Several notable target moves and viewpoints circulating into Dec. 21 include:
- Morgan Stanley maintained an Overweight rating and raised its target to $91 (from $82), as highlighted in recent coverage. [13]
- UBS upgraded Cisco earlier in November, arguing AI orders could help Cisco beat FY2026 sales guidance (with reporting noting AI order momentum and campus/network upgrades as tailwinds). [14]
- Post-earnings, multiple firms lifted targets, including BofA (to $95) and Rosenblatt (to $100), according to analyst-roundup reporting. [15]
- Melius raised its price target to $100 (from $84) citing networking strength, per analyst coverage. [16]
For a “consensus check,” MarketBeat’s aggregation shows an average target around $84.55, implying mid-to-high single-digit upside from the $78.42 close (again, as a snapshot of published targets rather than a guarantee). [17]
A fair way to summarize the Street setup in plain English:
- Bulls are paying up for AI order momentum + campus refresh + operating leverage.
- Skeptics want more transparency on AI revenue, not just orders—an ongoing debate in Cisco coverage. [18]
“No new financial info”: Cisco’s December conference circuit
Cisco also spent December doing the standard large-cap IR roadshow routine.
In a late-November investor relations release, Cisco said it would participate in multiple December events (including UBS’s Global Technology and AI Conference and the Barclays TMT Conference), explicitly stating no new financial information would be discussed. [19]
These events usually don’t move a stock by themselves—but they can influence tone, especially around AI, competition, and how Cisco frames demand durability into 2026.
The headline risk investors can’t ignore: active exploitation of a critical Cisco vulnerability
Into late December, a major non-earnings headline entered the conversation: an actively exploited, maximum-severity vulnerability tied to Cisco’s email security products.
Security reporting has focused on CVE-2025-20393, described as a critical (CVSS 10.0) issue, with public reporting indicating active exploitation and urgent mitigation guidance. [20]
From the U.S. government vulnerability ecosystem, the National Vulnerability Database notes:
- CVE-2025-20393 published Dec. 17, 2025
- Cisco listed as the CNA (scoring it 10.0 CRITICAL)
- It appears in CISA’s Known Exploited Vulnerabilities workflow with an agency “due date” of Dec. 24, 2025 for required action in U.S. federal contexts [21]
Why it matters for CSCO stock: This kind of issue rarely changes next quarter’s revenue by itself, but it can:
- Pressure customer confidence in affected product lines,
- Increase support and remediation costs,
- Reinforce the market’s insistence that cybersecurity isn’t just a growth business—it’s also a liability business when something breaks in production.
Investors generally watch for follow-through: patch timelines, scope clarity, and whether the story fades quickly or escalates.
Insider trading news: a Cisco director sold shares (Form 4 filings)
Another “current” data point that hit the tape in the last 48–72 hours: insider selling.
SEC filings show Cisco director Michael D. Capellas reported sales activity with an earliest transaction date of 12/18/2025 (Form 4 filed). [22]
Insider sales aren’t automatically bearish—executives sell for many reasons (taxes, diversification, scheduled plans). But in a stock sitting near multi-decade highs, these filings tend to get amplified because they align with the market’s natural question: “Is the good news already priced in?”
The big-picture debate: Cisco’s comeback as an AI-era lesson about hype, valuation, and patience
Cisco’s move above its dot-com high has also triggered a wave of higher-level commentary that’s less about quarterly numbers and more about market psychology.
A Financial Times analysis framed the new-high moment as both an achievement and a warning: Cisco ultimately became a hugely successful business, but the stock’s long journey back illustrates how overpaying—even for a winner—can punish investors for years. [23]
Reuters commentary has also used Cisco as a reference point in the “AI bubble vs. AI breakthrough” argument—essentially saying both things can be true: AI can transform business outcomes, and markets can still overheat on expectations. [24]
Business Insider echoed the same cautionary angle: Cisco’s 25-year round-trip is being cited as a reminder for today’s AI darlings that valuation and competitive dynamics matter—especially when a company becomes “the infrastructure story” of an era. [25]
For CSCO investors, this debate matters because Cisco is being re-valued as an AI infrastructure beneficiary. If AI networking spend remains durable, the re-rating can hold. If the spend slows or shifts technologically (or competitors capture the margin), the stock can revert to being priced like a mature infrastructure incumbent.
What to watch next for Cisco stock heading into 2026
As of Dec. 21, 2025, the near-term checklist for CSCO stock watchers looks like this:
- AI order trajectory: Does hyperscaler AI infrastructure ordering stay at (or above) the Q1 run-rate? Cisco already framed Q1 hyperscaler AI infrastructure orders at $1.3B and emphasized acceleration. [26]
- Campus networking refresh durability: Cisco is explicitly calling this a multi-year cycle, with WiFi 7 and next-gen campus gear ramping quickly. If enterprise budgets stay firm, this can broaden the bull case beyond hyperscalers. [27]
- Security headline resolution: Markets tend to forgive fast fixes and clear communication—and punish prolonged uncertainty. The CVE-2025-20393 story is a live wire until mitigation and scope are fully understood. [28]
- Capital returns vs. valuation: Cisco is still buying back stock aggressively and paying a steady dividend, including the $0.41 quarterly payout scheduled for January. [29]
- Tariffs and macro: Cisco’s guidance explicitly bakes in tariff assumptions. Any change in trade policy expectations can flow through hardware margins and enterprise purchasing behavior. [30]
Bottom line: Cisco is acting like an AI infrastructure winner—while being priced like one
Cisco stock’s late-2025 story is not subtle:
- The company is showing tangible AI order acceleration and a broader campus refresh catalyst. [31]
- Management raised FY2026 guidance and is attaching clearer numbers to the AI narrative. [32]
- Wall Street targets have moved up accordingly—some as high as the low $90s to $100 range. [33]
- Meanwhile, the market is also processing real-time security risk headlines and insider-sale filings—reminders that infrastructure giants don’t get to live in a consequence-free universe. [34]
Going into 2026, CSCO’s next direction will likely be decided by one thing: whether Cisco can keep turning AI-fueled demand into repeatable revenue, not just impressive orders—while proving it can defend the trust layer that comes with running the world’s networks. [35]
References
1. markets.financialcontent.com, 2. markets.financialcontent.com, 3. markets.financialcontent.com, 4. markets.financialcontent.com, 5. investor.cisco.com, 6. investor.cisco.com, 7. investor.cisco.com, 8. investor.cisco.com, 9. investor.cisco.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. markets.financialcontent.com, 12. investor.cisco.com, 13. www.marketbeat.com, 14. www.investors.com, 15. www.benzinga.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.marketbeat.com, 18. www.investors.com, 19. investor.cisco.com, 20. www.itpro.com, 21. nvd.nist.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.ft.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.businessinsider.com, 26. investor.cisco.com, 27. investor.cisco.com, 28. nvd.nist.gov, 29. investor.cisco.com, 30. investor.cisco.com, 31. investor.cisco.com, 32. investor.cisco.com, 33. www.marketbeat.com, 34. nvd.nist.gov, 35. investor.cisco.com
