Recursion Pharmaceuticals RXRX Stock News and Forecasts on December 21 2025

Recursion Pharmaceuticals, Inc. stock (NASDAQ: RXRX) heads into the week of December 21, 2025 with investors focused on one thing above all: whether newly released clinical data can turn Recursion’s long-running “AI drug discovery” promise into a credible, repeatable pipeline story that ultimately becomes commercial revenue.

The near-term backdrop is noisy. RXRX has been highly volatile for years, and even now the share price sits far below its prior highs, a reality that shapes how every catalyst is interpreted. ^[1]

Below is a roundup of the key RXRX stock news, fresh filings, analyst forecasts, and the most cited bull and bear arguments available as of December 21, 2025.

RXRX stock price check on December 21 2025

Because December 21, 2025 is a Sunday, the most recent “official” pricing reflects Friday’s close.

RXRX last closed at $4.26 (Dec. 19, 2025) on heavy volume (about 55 million shares), with the day’s range roughly $4.26 to $4.65. The company’s market capitalization at that price was about $2.1 billion. ^[2]

That price level matters for sentiment: it’s the zone where bullish investors argue the upside is asymmetric if one of Recursion’s programs becomes a true value driver, while skeptics see a platform-heavy biotech still burning cash with commercialization risk.

The catalyst that moved the story: REC‑4881 TUPELO trial results in FAP

The most consequential recent company-driven headline is Recursion’s December 8, 2025 release of Phase 1b/2 results from the ongoing REC‑4881 TUPELO study in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP), a rare, high-risk precancerous condition with significant unmet need.

Key efficacy points disclosed by the company include:

Week 13 (after 12 weeks of dosing): median 43% reduction in total polyp burden among efficacy-evaluable patients; 75% showed reductions. ^[3]
Week 25 (12 weeks after stopping therapy):82% of evaluable patients maintained reductions, with a 53% median decrease from baseline reported. ^[4]
A subset showed Spigelman stage improvement (a measure used in upper GI disease severity management in FAP). ^[5]

Recursion also framed the program as a “platform proof point,” noting the mechanism was identified through early versions of its Recursion OS screening approach and that the company in‑licensed REC‑4881 from Takeda before redirecting it into FAP. ^[6]

Regulatory positioning also improved: Recursion stated REC‑4881 has received Fast Track and Orphan Drug designations from the US FDA, plus Orphan Drug designation from the European Commission. ^[7]

Why this matters for RXRX stock: Investors have historically debated whether Recursion is “more platform than product.” A clinically meaningful, durable signal in a rare disease indication is exactly the kind of evidence that can shift valuation narratives—especially if the company can map a credible path to later-stage development.

JPMorgan upgraded RXRX and raised its price target to 11

The second major stock-moving item is an analyst call that landed right after the TUPELO update.

On December 17, 2025, JPMorgan upgraded Recursion Pharmaceuticals from Neutral to Overweight and raised its price target to $11 (from $10). ^[8]

According to Investing.com’s summary of JPMorgan’s thesis, the bank’s view hinged on:

The REC‑4881 TUPELO data and the argument that the addressable patient population may be larger than previously assumed. ^[9]
A “blockbuster” framing, with JPMorgan estimating peak sales exceeding $1 billion (with a probability-of-success assumption cited in the coverage). ^[10]
Additional pipeline interest including REC‑617, a CDK7 inhibitor the bank said showed early anti-tumor activity in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. ^[11]

It’s worth noting that “$11 target” headlines generate attention because of the math: from a ~$4–$5 stock, it implies very large upside if the thesis plays out. But the mechanism here is classic biotech: one program’s derisking can re-rate the whole platform, and one disappointment can reverse that quickly.

A quieter but important overhang: 7.09 million shares registered for resale by Tempus AI

Not all December headlines were about clinical wins.

On November 26, 2025, Recursion filed a prospectus supplement registering up to 7,088,742 shares of Class A common stock for resale by Tempus AI, Inc. ^[12]

Two details from the filing are especially relevant for stock watchers:

Recursion issued the shares to Tempus on November 24, 2025in lieu of a $32 million cash payment for the 2025 annual license fee under their master agreement. ^[13]
Recursion explicitly stated it is not selling shares in this filing and will not receive proceeds from Tempus’s resale; the registration is to allow Tempus to sell from time to time. ^[14]

This kind of registration can pressure sentiment because it introduces the possibility of additional selling supply (an “overhang”), even though the shares were already issued. Investors typically care less about the legal mechanics and more about whether and when the holder might sell into the market.

For additional context on the broader Tempus relationship, Recursion’s earlier quarterly filing described annual payments under the Tempus arrangement ranging from $22 million to $42 million, up to $160 million in aggregate, paid in cash or equity at the company’s option. ^[15]

What Recursion actually is: the business model behind the RXRX ticker

Recursion describes itself as a clinical-stage “TechBio” company trying to industrialize drug discovery through a vertically integrated stack of lab automation, large-scale data generation, and machine learning.

In its quarterly SEC filing for the period ended September 30, 2025, the company said Recursion OS is used to map and navigate biological and chemical relationships using roughly 65 petabytes of proprietary data, combining “wet lab” experimentation with “dry lab” computational modeling. ^[16]

How that becomes money today is largely through:

Internal pipeline development (where upside is highest but timelines are longest), and
Large pharma collaborations (which can fund operations through upfronts and milestones, but may be less explosive than a wholly owned drug launch). ^[17]

Recursion disclosed that, following a milestone event with Roche and Genentech, it had achieved more than $500 million in upfront and milestone payments from partners, and it also described a much larger pool of potential future milestone economics (in aggregate, across collaborations). ^[18]

Pipeline snapshot beyond REC‑4881: REC‑617 and other programs

While REC‑4881 grabbed the December spotlight, Recursion’s pipeline story is broader—and markets often price “optionality” across multiple shots on goal.

In its Q3 2025 earnings materials filed with the SEC, Recursion highlighted progress for REC‑617, an oral CDK7 inhibitor in the Phase 1/2 ELUCIDATE trial:

Maximum tolerated dose reported at 10 mg once daily in monotherapy dose escalation. ^[19]
As of Sept. 29, 2025, 29 heavily pre-treated patients had been treated across dose levels; Grade 3 or higher treatment-related adverse events occurred in 27.6%, with no Grade 4/5 TRAEs reported in that summary. ^[20]

Recursion has also publicly pointed to multiple additional internal programs and milestones expected in 2026 and beyond in its SEC disclosures. ^[21]

Financial condition: cash runway vs cash burn

For biotech stocks, cash runway is oxygen. Recursion’s filings give investors two competing signals: a large cash balance and a large burn rate.

From Recursion’s Q3 2025 earnings exhibit filed with the SEC:

Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were $667.1 million as of September 30, 2025. ^[22]
The company also reported approximately $785 million of cash and cash equivalents (unaudited) as of October 9, 2025, following $387.5 million in net proceeds from its at-the-market facility in Q3 and Q4 2025 (noting the ATM was fully utilized and completed). ^[23]
Management stated this supported a runway through the end of 2027 without additional financing (as presented in that exhibit). ^[24]

But losses and expenses were substantial:

Total revenue: about $5.175 million in Q3 2025 (operating revenue about $4.983 million). ^[25]
R&D expense: about $121.1 million in Q3 2025. ^[26]
Net loss:$162.3 million in Q3 2025, with net loss per share reported at $0.36 for that quarter. ^[27]

Translation: Recursion has time, but it also has to deliver. The market can stay patient only so long if clinical wins don’t accumulate into a plausible commercial path.

Analyst forecasts for RXRX stock as of December 21 2025

“RXRX stock forecast” searches spike after upgrades like JPMorgan’s. The important nuance is that different platforms include different analyst universes, so numbers won’t match perfectly.

Here’s the range of commonly cited consensus-style estimates as of this date:

Average price target around $6.46 with a $3.03 to $10.50 range (a 12‑month style window), shown on Fintel’s forecast page. ^[28]
A similar view (also showing $6.46 average and a consensus leaning Hold across a larger analyst count) appears on ValueInvesting.io, which also publishes revenue and EPS expectation summaries. ^[29]
StockAnalysis, using a smaller visible set, showed an average target of $8.00 with a consensus rating displayed as Buy, and it specifically lists the Dec. 17, 2025 JPMorgan upgrade and target increase to $11. ^[30]
TradingView displayed a 7.00 price target reference, and also shows max and min estimates consistent with the broader range (11 and 3). ^[31]

The sober way to read this: Wall Street doesn’t look “unified” on Recursion—some forecasts imply moderate upside, while the most bullish targets imply a major rerating driven by REC‑4881 commercialization probability and/or additional pipeline wins.

Institutional flows and ARK activity

ARK Invest has been one of the most watched holders in “AI biotech” names, and RXRX is no exception.

ARK-related trade tracking shows multiple RXRX buys in mid-December across ARK funds, including purchases on Dec. 17 and Dec. 18, 2025. ^[32]

A Nasdaq-hosted republish of Fintel commentary also highlighted ARK Investment Management as a major holder, citing an ownership percentage in the mid-single digits in that summary. ^[33]

Institutional interest can support sentiment, but it does not remove biotech reality: institutions can be early, wrong, or both.

Insider transactions that hit the tape in December

Insider Form 4 headlines often spook retail investors, so context matters. Several recent items were explicitly described as being executed under pre-arranged plans or for withholding taxes:

A TradingView news summary reported that director and 10% owner Blake Borgeson sold 220,000 shares on Dec. 2, 2025 at about $4.37, and stated it was under a Rule 10b5‑1 plan. ^[34]
A StockTitan summary of a Form 4 noted the CFO had 7,057 shares withheld on Dec. 15, 2025 to cover tax withholding obligations tied to RSU net settlement, not an open-market sale per the footnote. ^[35]
Investing.com reported CEO Christopher Gibson sold 40,000 shares on Dec. 4, 2025 under a Rule 10b5‑1 trading plan, alongside a conversion of Class B to Class A shares and a gift transaction described in that coverage. ^[36]

This doesn’t mean insider activity is irrelevant—persistent selling can weigh on perception—but December’s most-circulated items were presented as structured/administrative rather than “panic exits.”

What investors are watching next for Recursion stock

Between now and early 2026, RXRX’s narrative is likely to hinge on a few concrete milestones:

Earnings and cash updates: Public.com lists the next earnings report date as Feb. 27, 2026, with analysts projecting continued losses. ^[37]
REC‑4881 development path clarity: Investors will look for how Recursion translates TUPELO data into registrational strategy, trial design, timelines, and payer logic. ^[38]
More pipeline readouts: Additional updates across oncology and other programs can either validate the “platform flywheel” idea or reinforce the bear case that REC‑4881 is an outlier. ^[39]
The Tempus resale overhang: Any sign of sustained selling pressure could keep the stock capped even if fundamental news is positive. ^[40]

The bull case and the bear case in one minute

The bullish thesis for Recursion Pharmaceuticals stock is straightforward: REC‑4881 may be emerging as a potential rare-disease product opportunity with meaningful clinical effect and durability, and if that translates into a credible regulatory path, the market may stop valuing Recursion as “just a platform.” JPMorgan’s December upgrade is a clean expression of that view. ^[41]

The bearish thesis is equally clean: Recursion remains deeply loss-making with high R&D spend, and the company must repeatedly convert science into late-stage assets while managing dilution/overhang dynamics like the Tempus resale registration. ^[42]

That tension—real clinical momentum versus the brutal economics of drug development—is why RXRX is still a headline magnet in late 2025.