Updated: Sunday, December 21, 2025
Data center stocks head into a holiday-shortened week with a familiar setup—and a few fresh fault lines. Demand for AI compute remains strong, but the market is increasingly pricing the constraints around that demand: power availability, grid rules, financing terms, and the evolving perimeter of U.S. semiconductor export controls.
For investors watching the full “data center stack”—from AI chips and networking to power/cooling gear and data center REITs—the coming week is likely to be less about earnings and more about macro prints, liquidity, and headline-driven sentiment. That mix matters because many of the biggest data center winners have become “duration” trades: sensitive to interest-rate expectations, risk appetite, and any sign that the AI buildout is slowing (or getting harder to fund).
Below is what matters most for the week ahead, based on the latest news, forecasts, and analyst commentary available as of 21.12.2025.
Week-ahead snapshot: What will move data center stocks this week
- Holiday liquidity + macro data: U.S. markets close early on Wednesday, Dec. 24 and are closed Thursday, Dec. 25; key U.S. data hits on Tuesday and Wednesday. [1]
- AI buildout scrutiny: Markets have been reacting to whether massive AI infrastructure spending can translate into returns—especially after financing questions around a flagship Oracle/OpenAI project. [2]
- Power as the binding constraint: New projections and regulatory moves reinforce that electricity—not land, not fiber—is becoming the gating factor for data center growth in several regions. [3]
- Export controls and “remote access” loopholes: Reports that Chinese firms can access top Nvidia GPUs through offshore data centers are putting renewed focus on whether policy tightens further—and how quickly. [4]
The biggest data center headlines shaping the sector right now
1) Oracle/OpenAI financing friction puts the spotlight on “who pays” for AI infrastructure
One of the most market-moving storylines in late December has been the financing structure behind mega-scale AI data center projects.
Reuters reported that Oracle said talks for an equity deal to support its more than 1-gigawatt Michigan data center project (in Saline Township) remain on track but do not include Blue Owl Capital—after reports of stalled negotiations helped knock Oracle shares lower. The project is described as part of the “Stargate” AI infrastructure push by Oracle and OpenAI, with construction slated to begin in early 2026. [5]
Why this matters for data center stocks:
- It’s a real-time case study in the market’s new question: AI demand may be huge, but financing terms can still break deals.
- It also raises the bar for data center developers and REITs: investors increasingly want to see long leases, credible counterparties, and bankable power before assigning premium valuations.
2) Hut 8’s $7B AI lease underscores the “miners-to-AI” pivot—and the importance of blue-chip backstops
A separate development highlights how quickly the AI infrastructure ecosystem is pulling in non-traditional players.
Hut 8 announced a 15-year, 245 MW AI data center lease at its River Bend Campus with a $7.0 billion total contract value over the base term (and up to $17.7 billion with renewals), and said Google is providing a financial backstop covering obligations for the base lease term. [6] Reuters also covered the deal as part of a broader pivot by former crypto miners toward AI infrastructure. [7]
Why this matters:
- The market is rewarding projects that combine scale (MW), duration (multi-year), and credit quality (backstops/blue-chip counterparties)—especially as debt and equity markets scrutinize AI capex more closely.
3) Europe’s power constraints become investable “signals,” not just background noise
In Europe, a Reuters report on Pure Data Centres’ plans for an Amsterdam-area campus shows how developers are adapting to power scarcity and permitting pressure.
Pure Data Centres said it plans to invest up to €1 billion in an Amsterdam-area campus with 78 MW capacity, including a private substation, with construction expected to begin January 2026 and phased delivery from 2028. The context is crucial: Reuters noted that Amsterdam has had a moratorium on new data centers in recent years due to concerns including energy use. [8]
Why this matters for public stocks:
- Power access and permitting are turning into competitive moats. That tends to favor scaled operators with balance sheets and relationships—often the same names that sit inside data center REITs and digital infrastructure portfolios.
4) Data center dealmaking hits a record—private capital keeps pushing in
If you’re wondering why valuations stay elevated despite volatility, follow the capital.
Reuters reported that global data center dealmaking surged to a record high through November, with more than 100 transactions totaling just under $61 billion, citing S&P Global Market Intelligence. [9]
Translation for the week ahead:
- Even if public stocks chop around on rates and headlines, the underlying bid from private capital remains a stabilizing force—particularly for data center real estate and operating platforms.
Forecasts and analyst views: what the market expects next
Power demand is still rising fast—and forecasts keep getting bigger
Two widely cited outlooks in December reinforce the same point: AI data centers are driving a step-change in electricity needs.
- Reuters reported that power supplies from utilities to U.S. data centers are expected to jump 22% this year to 61.8 GW, reaching 134.4 GW by 2030, citing an S&P Global outlook. [10]
- Utility Dive, citing BloombergNEF, said U.S. data center power demand could rise dramatically and referenced a forecast reaching 106 GW by 2035. [11]
Why this matters for data center stocks:
- Power & cooling suppliers (think thermal management, UPS, switchgear) become “picks-and-shovels” plays.
- The risk side rises too: higher power prices, delayed interconnects, and community pushback can all cap growth.
Grid regulation is becoming a near-term catalyst (especially around PJM)
Data center growth is also changing grid governance.
Reuters reported that U.S. energy regulators directed PJM to revise rules for AI data center connections (co-located load), noting that PJM capacity prices have risen sharply as data center demand overtakes supply—Reuters cited capacity prices up about 1,000% over roughly two years. [12]
This has two immediate read-throughs:
- Data center expansion can trigger political blowback if households see rising bills.
- Any tightening of interconnection and “behind-the-meter” rules can change the economics for where—and how fast—new capacity comes online.
Wall Street is still constructive on the “AI hardware” side
Despite late-year volatility and “AI bubble” talk, the sell-side tone remains broadly constructive on key AI supply-chain names.
Investopedia reported that Bank of America and Jefferies have remained bullish heading into 2026, highlighting chip and infrastructure beneficiaries of continued data center spend (including Nvidia and Broadcom among large-cap picks). [13]
Memory and HBM constraints are being explicitly linked to AI data center buildouts
One of the most concrete, near-term supply constraints is memory—especially high-bandwidth memory (HBM) used with advanced AI accelerators.
Reuters reported Micron forecasted profit far above expectations amid tight supply and booming AI data center demand, and raised its 2026 capex plan to $20 billion. Micron’s CEO also said he expects memory markets to remain tight past 2026. [14]
Implication:
- AI data center growth is increasingly constrained by a multi-component bill of materials—not just GPUs. That can ripple through timelines for deployments and recognition of revenue across the stack.
Data center REIT fundamentals: pipelines stay large
On the real estate side, the key questions are leasing spreads, power-backed development pipelines, and cost of capital.
Investing.com reported Goldman Sachs initiated Digital Realty with a Buy rating, noting a $6.4B construction pipeline (including 730 MW under development) expected to come online in 2026 (including joint ventures). [15]
Separately, sector M&A chatter remains active: DataCenterDynamics reported that Digital Realty and Equinix are among bidders (per Bloomberg reporting) for Nordic operator atNorth, with a valuation discussed around €4.5B. [16]
Policy risk: from local moratoriums to national politics
Data centers are moving from “infrastructure story” to “political story.”
- Business Insider reported Sen. Bernie Sanders called for a nationwide moratorium on AI data center construction, framing it as a need to pause and regulate. [17]
- Reuters has also highlighted how debt is increasingly funding the AI data center boom—citing, among other points, a UBS report that AI data center and project financing surged to $125B this year vs $15B in the same period of 2024, alongside warnings that debt-fueled expansion could create stability risks if valuations correct. [18]
For the week ahead, this matters less as immediate legislation and more as headline sensitivity: data center stocks tend to react quickly to any sign of permitting delays, environmental restrictions, or financing stress.
Export controls: the data center trade’s underappreciated swing factor
For investors in AI-exposed data center stocks, export controls are not just a “chip” issue—they can reshape:
- where compute is deployed,
- how demand routes through cloud providers,
- and which geographies can legally access frontier GPUs.
A key December storyline has been allegations that Chinese firms can access restricted Nvidia GPUs via offshore data centers. The Financial Times reported Tencent secured access to advanced Nvidia chips through a partnership with Japan-based Datasection, using data centers in Osaka and Sydney. [19]
In parallel, Reuters reported the U.S. launched a review of advanced Nvidia AI chip sales to China, underscoring that policy enforcement remains active and fluid. [20]
Also notable: Nvidia continues to build out software “stickiness” in the data center ecosystem. Reuters reported Nvidia acquired SchedMD, the company behind Slurm job scheduling software widely used to manage large-scale compute workloads in data centers. [21]
Week-ahead takeaway:
- Any Washington signal about tightening cloud/remote access could hit sentiment across AI infrastructure names—chips first, but also cloud and data center capacity suppliers.
The week-ahead calendar: what to watch (Dec. 22–26, 2025)
Market hours and liquidity
This is a holiday-shortened week:
- Wednesday, Dec. 24: U.S. stock markets close early (1 p.m. ET) and bond markets close early (2 p.m. ET). [22]
- Thursday, Dec. 25: Markets closed for Christmas. [23]
- Major U.S. exchanges have said they remain open as scheduled on Dec. 24 and Dec. 26 (with early close on the 24th and a full session on the 26th), despite the federal government’s closure order on those days. [24]
In practice, lower liquidity can amplify moves in high-beta areas like AI and data center stocks—especially on headlines.
Macro data that can ripple through the data center complex
Investors will be watching for any macro surprise that shifts rate expectations (which hit both REIT multiples and high-growth tech valuations):
- Tuesday, Dec. 23: Initial Q3 GDP estimate; durable goods orders (October); industrial production/capacity utilization (November); consumer confidence (December). [25]
- Wednesday, Dec. 24: Initial jobless claims (week ended Dec. 20). [26]
Rates angle:
- Reuters reported Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated there may be no need to change interest rates “for months” after the Fed’s recent cuts, suggesting policy could stay on hold into spring depending on inflation and labor market data. [27]
Sentiment angle:
- Reuters’ “Week Ahead” coverage notes two key drivers into year-end: scrutiny of AI spending and shifting expectations for additional Fed cuts in 2026. [28]
How to think about “data center stocks” right now: four buckets that trade differently
If you’re publishing a week-ahead report, grouping the sector helps readers understand why two “data center stocks” can react in opposite directions to the same headline.
1) AI compute suppliers: chips, memory, and systems
Examples: Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Micron
What moves them this week:
- Export-control headlines and enforcement risk. [29]
- Supply constraints (HBM and memory pricing). [30]
- Risk-on/risk-off flows in thin holiday liquidity.
2) Networking and “plumbing” of AI clusters
Examples: Arista, Marvell (and adjacent optical/ASIC ecosystems)
What moves them:
- Any signal that hyperscalers are accelerating or pausing cluster builds.
- Read-through from capex sentiment (Oracle/OpenAI headlines matter even if you don’t own Oracle). [31]
3) Power, cooling, and electrical infrastructure
Examples: Vertiv, Eaton (plus switchgear, thermal, backup power suppliers)
What moves them:
- The power constraint narrative strengthening. [32]
- Grid rules (PJM/FERC) and public backlash over power bills. [33]
4) Data center landlords and operators: REITs and colocation
Examples: Equinix, Digital Realty
What moves them:
- Rate expectations (REIT math still matters).
- Development pipeline credibility and leasing spreads. [34]
- Potential M&A chatter (atNorth bidding reports). [35]
Bottom line for the coming week
Going into Christmas week, the data center trade still has powerful tailwinds—AI demand, record dealmaking, and enormous development pipelines. But the market is shifting from “how big is the AI opportunity?” to “how constrained is the AI opportunity?” by power, permitting, financing, and policy.
For the week ahead, expect data center stocks to trade on:
- Tuesday’s macro data and any rate repricing,
- holiday-thin liquidity, and
- the next headline on grid rules, financing, or export-control enforcement—the three areas where the AI buildout can hit friction fastest. [36]
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.ft.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.hut8.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.utilitydive.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.investopedia.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.datacenterdynamics.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.ft.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.investopedia.com, 23. www.investopedia.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investopedia.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.datacenterdynamics.com, 36. www.investopedia.com
