Nike, Inc. (NYSE: NKE) heads into the Monday, December 22, 2025 session trying to stabilize after a sharp post-earnings selloff that pushed the stock to a multi-month low. Nike shares last closed at $58.71 (Friday’s close, the most recent U.S. session), after investors looked past an earnings-and-revenue beat and zeroed in on margin pressure, tariff costs, and ongoing weakness in Greater China. [1]
Below is a detailed, pre-open briefing of the latest news, guidance, and analyst thinking around Nike stock—what mattered in the latest quarter, what spooked investors, and what the market will likely watch next.
Pre-market quick take: the 5 drivers moving Nike stock right now
1) A “beat” quarter, but profits fell hard.
Nike reported fiscal Q2 2026 results (quarter ended Nov. 30, 2025) with revenue up modestly, but net income down 32% and EPS down 32%, as costs and mix worked against the turnaround. [2]
2) Tariffs are hitting margins—and management guided for more pressure.
Nike’s gross margin fell 300 bps to 40.6%, and tariffs were cited as a key driver; management also warned of additional margin pressure in the next quarter. [3]
3) China remains the biggest strategic and sentiment problem.
Greater China revenue fell again (another quarterly decline), and multiple reports highlighted that Nike’s brand momentum and digital performance in China remain under heavy pressure amid intense local competition. [4]
4) Nike is rebuilding wholesale—but DTC is shrinking.
Wholesale grew 8% in Q2, while NIKE Direct fell 8% (with digital down 14%), reflecting a deliberate channel rebalancing that helps near-term revenue but can weigh on margins. [5]
5) Analysts still see upside—yet many just cut price targets.
Consensus price targets remain well above Friday’s close, but the immediate wave of post-earnings notes skewed cautious, with multiple firms trimming targets on tariffs, China uncertainty, and timeline risk. [6]
What happened to Nike stock into the open?
Nike stock is entering Dec. 22 trading after closing down 11% on Friday to $58.71, which Reuters noted was Nike’s lowest close in seven months. Reuters also reported the shares are down about 22% in 2025 following the latest slide, underscoring how unforgiving the market has been toward a turnaround that’s improving in some areas but deteriorating in others. [7]
The key point: Nike did not miss the quarter—Nike missed the market’s patience. Investors appear to be repricing the stock around (a) tariff-driven cost inflation, (b) longer duration of the China reset, and (c) the near-term hit to profitability that comes with clearing older inventory and changing the product mix. [8]
Nike earnings recap: the numbers investors are anchoring to
Nike’s official release for fiscal Q2 2026 (ended Nov. 30, 2025) showed:
- Revenue:$12.4B, up 1% reported
- Wholesale revenue:$7.5B, up 8%
- NIKE Direct:$4.6B, down 8% (digital down 14%)
- Gross margin:40.6%, down 300 bps
- Diluted EPS:$0.53
- Net income: about $0.8B, down 32%
- Inventories:$7.7B, down 3% (units down, but costs up) [9]
Two details that matter for how investors model Nike:
- Marketing spend is rising again. Demand creation expense increased 13% (to $1.3B) as Nike stepped up brand and sports marketing. [10]
- Converse is a real drag. Converse revenue fell to $300M, down 30%, signaling brand-specific challenges alongside the broader Nike reset. [11]
Why the stock fell anyway: “Tariffs” + “China” + “Timeline”
1) Tariffs are now a recurring headline risk for Nike’s margins
Nike explicitly cited higher tariffs in North America as a major reason gross margin contracted by 300 bps in Q2. [12]
Reuters reporting added a larger framing: tariffs on imports from key manufacturing regions are expected to cost Nike about $1.5 billion (as described in Reuters coverage), and investors are increasingly treating that as a persistent—not temporary—margin headwind. [13]
Just as important: management signaled that near-term profitability may remain under pressure as Nike works through product and channel changes while absorbing higher costs. [14]
2) China is not just “weak”—it’s structurally hard right now
Nike’s Greater China revenue fell again in Q2 (reported as down in multiple outlets), extending a streak of declines and intensifying investor scrutiny around brand relevance and competitive positioning. [15]
Reuters emphasized that China weakness has persisted for multiple quarters, with China-related sales declines continuing and competition intensifying from domestic players like Anta and Li-Ning. Reuters also noted Nike’s online sales were down sharply in China (a major issue in a market where digital engagement is often a growth engine). [16]
Business Insider took the “why” a step further—arguing Nike is struggling to stay culturally relevant with younger Chinese consumers, while local brands tap into the “Guochao” trend and often outperform on modern China-native digital channels and community-based marketing. [17]
3) The market is challenging Nike’s turnaround timeline
Nike CEO Elliott Hill described the company as being in the “middle innings” of its comeback in the earnings release—language that signals progress, but also implicitly acknowledges that the turnaround is not near completion. [18]
Investopedia summarized the investor worry clearly: even with a top-line beat, management commentary suggested China headwinds could persist and Q3 could be soft—pushing out the point when investors can confidently underwrite a clean recovery. [19]
The channel mix story: wholesale is back, DTC is down
Nike’s Q2 split is central to the bull vs. bear debate:
- Wholesale grew 8%—a sign Nike is rebuilding retailer relationships and expanding distribution again. [20]
- NIKE Direct fell 8% (with digital down 14%)—which can weigh on margins because DTC is typically higher margin than wholesale, even if it supports brand control and consumer data. [21]
Vogue Business highlighted that wholesale growth was especially tied to North America momentum, while DTC weakness remained pronounced—another reason the market debate is less about “Did Nike beat?” and more about “What does the next 2–4 quarters look like?” [22]
Leadership and restructuring: Nike keeps removing layers
Nike’s internal overhaul is not just operational—it’s becoming part of the investment narrative.
Retail Dive reported that Nike is eliminating the Chief Technology Officer and Chief Commercial Officer roles, with responsibilities shifting across the leadership team. The report also noted Venky Alagirisamy (Chief Supply Chain Officer) would become Chief Operating Officer, and that Nike’s regional heads would be elevated to the senior leadership table. [23]
For investors, leadership reshuffles can cut two ways:
- Bull case: faster decision-making, tighter connection to consumers, clearer accountability during a reset. [24]
- Bear case: frequent organizational change can signal that execution isn’t meeting expectations, and it can distract teams during a critical product and marketplace transition.
Nike guidance and what matters most for the holiday quarter
Nike’s fiscal Q3 includes the holiday selling season, so forward commentary carries extra weight.
Reuters reported Nike forecast third-quarter revenue to decline (low single-digit decline), and highlighted that ongoing tariff costs and restructuring dynamics are pressuring margins and sentiment. [25]
Investopedia similarly reported that CFO Matt Friend warned China sales headwinds could continue, and that Q3 expectations were a key reason the stock fell even though results topped estimates. [26]
In plain English: the market is treating Q3 as the “proof quarter”—not necessarily for explosive growth, but for whether Nike can (a) keep North America improving, (b) stop the China slide from worsening, and (c) prevent margins from deteriorating further.
Wall Street forecasts: price targets still imply upside, but conviction is mixed
Even after the selloff, published consensus targets remain meaningfully higher than Friday’s close:
- StockAnalysis shows an average price target around $78.65 (with a low around $62 and high around $115) and a consensus that skews Buy. [27]
- TipRanks shows an average target around $80.50 (low $62, high $120) with a consensus described as Moderate Buy. [28]
But the post-earnings note flow includes real caution. For example, Barclays lowered its Nike price target to $64 (from $70) while keeping an Equal Weight stance, pointing to tariffs as an ongoing pressure point and demand uncertainty outside North America. [29]
Investopedia also reported Bank of America remained positive (kept a buy rating) but cut its target—another example of analysts trying to balance a long-term brand franchise with near-term execution and cost turbulence. [30]
How to interpret this before the open: the Street’s long-term target stack suggests many analysts still believe Nike can recover—but the near-term debate is about how much profit Nike may have to “spend” (via promotions, channel shifts, and investment) to get there.
Dividends and shareholder returns: what income investors should know
Nike’s earnings release highlighted a long dividend-growth record and noted the company returned about $598 million via dividends in the quarter (up 7% year-over-year). [31]
For the next dividend:
- A $0.41 quarterly dividend payment is listed as upcoming, with a payment date of Jan. 2, 2026 (and an ex-dividend date already passed earlier in December, per published schedules). [32]
This won’t typically move the stock on Dec. 22 by itself, but it matters for investors assessing Nike as a “brand + income” holding during a multi-quarter turnaround.
Product and brand catalysts: NikeSKIMS is a bright spot, but not a cure-all
Nike continues to build around women’s product innovation and sport-style crossover.
Nike’s official newsroom announced the NikeSKIMS debut collection launched Sept. 26, 2025, and later detailed Drop 2 (available Nov. 13, 2025)—evidence that the partnership is moving from announcement to a repeatable product cadence. [33]
Investors generally like the strategic logic (women’s activewear is a huge category and fiercely competitive), but the stock’s near-term direction will still be driven primarily by the big three: tariffs, China, and margin trajectory. [34]
What to watch before the opening bell on Dec. 22
Here are the most likely “market-moving” items traders and longer-term investors will track into Monday’s open:
- Follow-through selling vs. bargain hunting after Friday’s break to a seven-month low. [35]
- Additional analyst target changes (especially downgrades or further cuts from major banks). [36]
- Any new tariff headlines that change expectations for Nike’s 2026 cost base. [37]
- China datapoints and commentary (brand heat, digital traffic, pricing/promotional intensity, competitive signals from Anta/Li-Ning). [38]
- Evidence that wholesale strength is sustainable without permanently impairing margins (the key “quality of revenue” debate). [39]
Bottom line for Dec. 22: Nike stock is cheap for a reason—and interesting for a reason
Nike is still one of the world’s most powerful brands, and the quarter showed genuine progress in North America and wholesale. But the selloff makes clear that the market is demanding proof that Nike can (1) stop the China erosion, and (2) protect profitability in a higher-tariff, more competitive landscape—without extending the turnaround indefinitely. [40]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. investors.nike.com, 3. investors.nike.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. investors.nike.com, 6. stockanalysis.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. investors.nike.com, 10. investors.nike.com, 11. investors.nike.com, 12. investors.nike.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.vogue.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. investors.nike.com, 19. www.investopedia.com, 20. investors.nike.com, 21. investors.nike.com, 22. www.vogue.com, 23. www.retaildive.com, 24. www.retaildive.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investopedia.com, 27. stockanalysis.com, 28. www.tipranks.com, 29. www.tipranks.com, 30. www.investopedia.com, 31. investors.nike.com, 32. www.slickcharts.com, 33. about.nike.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.tipranks.com, 37. www.reuters.com, 38. www.reuters.com, 39. investors.nike.com, 40. www.reuters.com
