Dec. 22, 2025 — TMC stock (TMC the metals company Inc., NASDAQ:TMC) is back in the spotlight after a burst of options-driven momentum collided with a very real regulatory calendar: the U.S. government has now formally moved forward with public-comment steps tied to TMC USA’s deep seabed mining exploration license applications, setting up a catalyst-heavy start to 2026. [1]
Shares were last trading around $7.9, after a sharp late-week move that multiple analysts attributed less to new fundamentals and more to derivatives flow, short positioning, and headline sensitivity around the “critical minerals” policy narrative. [2]
What follows is a full, up-to-date rundown of today’s TMC news, current forecasts, and the most-circulated analyses shaping sentiment as of December 22, 2025—and why the stock’s next major swing may be dictated by calendars and regulators as much as by cash flow.
Why TMC stock is moving: options surge meets a crowded short trade
The most immediate “news” around TMC isn’t a drill result or a revenue beat—because TMC remains pre-revenue—it’s the market structure.
- Unusual call activity: Market coverage flagged a spike in bullish call volume, including a session where traders bought 76,689 call options, more than triple typical daily volume, amplifying price movement. [3]
- Short interest as fuel: Several widely read notes highlighted elevated short interest (roughly 30 million shares in late-November reporting), a setup that can accelerate upside when call buyers force market-makers to hedge and shorts cover into strength. [4]
- A “mechanical” pop: One analysis of the late-week spike described it as an options-and-flow event occurring without a clear company-specific catalyst on the day—classic conditions for rapid reversals if momentum fades. [5]
This matters for anyone following TMC stock because it’s a reminder that TMC often trades like a narrative asset: when policy headlines or permitting rumors surface, positioning can do the rest—up or down.
The regulatory headline that actually changes the calendar: NOAA moves to public comment and hearings
The most consequential new development for the TMC story is not a price target—it’s the U.S. administrative process.
A Department of Commerce / NOAA notice (on public inspection and scheduled for Federal Register publication Dec. 23, 2025) announces receipt of deep seabed mining exploration license applications and launches the next formal steps:
- NOAA states it received amended applications from The Metals Company USA LLC (TMC USA) and determined the applications are fully compliant with information requirements under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA) and implementing regulations. [6]
- The notice sets a public participation process, including two virtual public hearings scheduled for Jan. 27 and Jan. 28, 2026 (3 p.m. to 7 p.m. Eastern). [7]
- It also establishes a comment window running 60 days after Federal Register publication (the draft shows a placeholder for the exact “60 days after” date), plus practical instructions for submitting comments and registering to speak. [8]
For TMC stock watchers, this is the clearest near-term catalyst on the board: the market now has dated events that can generate news, opposition campaigns, supportive industry comments, and—importantly—signals about how likely U.S. permitting becomes as a pathway.
The bigger frame: the U.S. seabed-mining path is real, but legally and diplomatically messy
To understand why each NOAA step can swing the stock, it helps to zoom out.
A Congressional Research Service (CRS) explainer on U.S. seabed mining notes that DSHMRA authorizes NOAA to issue exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits to U.S. citizens in areas beyond national jurisdiction, while also warning that because the U.S. is not a party to UNCLOS (the U.N. Law of the Sea treaty), domestic rights may not be recognized internationally—and unilateral action could trigger international reaction. [9]
This legal/diplomatic ambiguity is exactly why TMC stock behaves like a binary: in the bullish version, NOAA permitting becomes a workable route; in the bearish version, the route exists on paper but proves difficult to operationalize globally.
What the company says: TMC’s latest financials, runway, and timeline to 2027
TMC’s most recent major corporate update (Q3 2025) remains the baseline for fundamentals. In that release, the company reported:
- Cash ~ $115.6 million at Sept. 30, 2025 and net loss of $184.5 million (net loss per share $0.46) for the quarter. [10]
- Management also cited total liquidity of $165 million after quarter-end warrant exercises and undrawn credit facilities, arguing it does not need to raise public equity “anytime soon” (management’s characterization). [11]
- A central long-term claim: TMC expects to start commercial production in Q4 2027 if it receives a commercial recovery permit, and it highlighted economic studies including a pre-feasibility study (PFS) and declared mineral reserves for a polymetallic nodule project. [12]
- On the U.S. permitting front, the company said NOAA had confirmed full compliance for TMC USA’s exploration license applications and that the applications had moved into certification stages. [13]
Net: even after a huge stock run in 2025, TMC is still being valued primarily on the probability-weighted outcome of “permit + financing + execution,” not on current revenue.
TMC stock forecast: analysts are split, and the average target now sits near the tape
As of Dec. 22, 2025, consensus-style data shows a market that’s less uniformly bullish than the headlines might suggest:
- One widely referenced analyst compilation lists a consensus rating of “Hold” with an average 12‑month price target around $7.42, with targets ranging roughly from $3.75 (low) to $11.00 (high). [14]
- With the stock trading around $7.9, that same consensus math implies limited upside on average, which is unusual for a story stock—suggesting that even bullish analysts are implicitly pricing in big risks (permitting, funding, delays). [15]
Earnings expectations reinforce the same message: the Street largely models TMC as a loss-making developer for the foreseeable future, with the next major quarterly report widely expected in late March 2026 (exact date varies by data provider). [16]
Today’s two dominant narratives: “policy tailwinds” vs “commercialization fragility”
Coverage over the past week has clustered into two competing interpretations of the same facts.
1) The bullish narrative: critical minerals politics may finally create a path
A widely circulated take on the 2025 rally argues TMC’s move is primarily about policy tailwinds—the U.S. government’s push to secure non-China supply chains for critical minerals—while stressing that the company remains speculative because it has no commercial revenue today. [17]
That political re-rating is reinforced by broader U.S. policy signals. For example, the U.S. Geological Survey and Department of the Interior released a final 2025 critical minerals list that added copper (among other materials), strengthening the strategic narrative around metals TMC says it can produce. [18]
2) The bearish narrative: the story is ahead of the balance sheet
A contrasting analysis argues TMC’s commercialization outlook remains fragile, emphasizing:
- lack of sustained revenue,
- financing/dilution risk,
- and historical comparisons to prior deep-sea mining ventures that failed to reach profitable operations. [19]
Even if you disagree with that author’s tone, the market risk they’re pointing at is real: a pre-revenue company’s equity can levitate on probability—but it can also deflate quickly when timelines slip.
The key 2026 catalysts for TMC stock (and why dates matter more than vibes)
Between now and the end of Q1 2026, TMC’s price action is likely to be shaped by scheduled events more than by traditional operating metrics:
- Federal Register publication + comment period clock
NOAA’s notice is scheduled for Dec. 23, 2025 publication, triggering a comment window (stated as 60 days after publication) that can become a magnet for organized support and opposition. [20] - NOAA virtual public hearings: Jan. 27–28, 2026
Hearings create headline risk in both directions: procedural progress is bullish; intense pushback or critical testimony can weigh on sentiment. [21] - Next quarterly report in late March 2026
Even without revenue, markets will focus on cash burn, liquidity, and any permitting/legal updates—especially after a volatility-heavy run. [22] - Options/short-interest dynamics
With short interest still substantial by recent measures, TMC can keep seeing sharp squeezes and equally sharp mean reversion—particularly around regulatory headlines. [23]
Bottom line: TMC stock is trading a permit-and-policy probability curve
As of Dec. 22, 2025, the cleanest way to understand TMC stock is this:
In the short run, it’s a volatility machine powered by options flow and a crowded positioning backdrop. [24]
In the medium run, it’s a regulatory calendar trade—now with real NOAA dates that can generate real headlines. [25]
In the long run, it’s a high-beta bet on whether deep-sea nodules become an investable, permittable, financeable supply chain by 2027. [26]
That mix can produce extraordinary upside or brutal drawdowns, sometimes with the same piece of news interpreted two different ways by two different audiences.
References
1. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 2. www.trefis.com, 3. www.marketbeat.com, 4. www.trefis.com, 5. www.trefis.com, 6. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 7. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 8. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 9. www.congress.gov, 10. investors.metals.co, 11. investors.metals.co, 12. investors.metals.co, 13. investors.metals.co, 14. www.marketbeat.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. www.zacks.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.usgs.gov, 19. ca.investing.com, 20. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 21. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 22. www.zacks.com, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.trefis.com, 25. public-inspection.federalregister.gov, 26. investors.metals.co
