Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) ended Monday’s regular session higher — then slipped after the closing bell as investors digested a major late-day headline from its biggest obesity rival, Novo Nordisk.
LLY closed at $1,076.48 (+0.47%) at 4:00 p.m. ET on Monday, Dec. 22, 2025, then traded down about 1% in after-hours action, around $1,065.50 as of 6:18 p.m. ET. [1]
That after-hours dip matters because the news that hit late Monday is exactly the kind of development that can reprice sentiment around the hottest corner of big pharma: GLP‑1 weight-loss drugs — and, increasingly, GLP‑1 pills.
LLY stock after the bell: the numbers investors are reacting to tonight
Here’s the quick snapshot from Monday’s tape:
- Regular-session close (Dec. 22): $1,076.48, up about 0.47%
- After-hours (6:18 p.m. ET): roughly $1,065.50, down about 1.0%
- Day’s range: $1,063.00 to $1,083.48
- 52-week range: $623.78 to $1,111.99 [2]
A move of ~1% in extended trading isn’t catastrophic — but it is notable for a mega-cap name like Lilly, and it arrived in direct proximity to a market-moving FDA decision.
The late headline: FDA approves Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy pill — a first for oral weight loss
After the U.S. market closed, Reuters reported that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss pill, giving Novo a first-to-market position in a potent oral obesity therapy. [3]
Key details from today’s coverage:
- The product is oral semaglutide (25 mg) using the Wegovy brand, the same active ingredient as injectable Wegovy/Ozempic. [4]
- A 64-week late-stage study showed average weight loss of 16.6% for patients taking oral semaglutide versus 2.7% on placebo. [5]
- Reuters noted Novo’s U.S.-listed shares jumped ~6% in extended trading after the announcement. [6]
- Axios reported Novo said the pill would be available early in the new year, with a $149/month starting dose mentioned in the company’s messaging. [7]
Why this matters for Lilly stock: Even though Lilly has led the latest phase of the obesity boom with Zepbound, a competitor securing the first FDA-approved GLP‑1 weight-loss pill changes the psychology of the trade. Pills are widely viewed as the next “mass adoption” wave because they reduce injection hesitancy and can broaden access.
Reuters also emphasized that analysts expect pills could capture roughly one-fifth of the obesity market by 2030, and that an oral option can expand the patient pool significantly. [8]
What it means for Eli Lilly: orforglipron is still the big catalyst — and the timeline is tight
The obvious question for LLY investors tonight is: Does Novo’s approval delay or diminish Lilly’s oral opportunity?
Not necessarily — but it does raise the stakes.
Reuters reported that Lilly’s next-generation weight-loss pill orforglipron “could be approved as soon as late March.” [9] That’s close enough that traders may view this as a near-term “two-horse race” rather than a multi-year gap — but Novo now has the marketing advantage of being first.
STAT’s reporting adds important nuance:
- Novo’s pill is a peptide-based approach (harder to absorb), with morning/empty-stomach timing restrictions. [10]
- STAT notes Lilly’s orforglipron is a small molecule, which experts say could be easier to manufacture and doesn’t carry the same timing restrictions — but it also “didn’t show as much efficacy” as oral Wegovy in trials (per expert commentary in the piece). [11]
In other words, tonight’s market is trying to price a more complicated reality than “Novo wins, Lilly loses.” The likely battleground is:
- Convenience & adherence (timing restrictions vs. no restrictions)
- Manufacturing scale (small molecule vs. peptide complexity)
- Pricing and payer dynamics (how quickly coverage broadens, and at what net price)
- Real-world outcomes (weight loss, discontinuation rates, side effects, persistence)
STAT also highlighted a politically and commercially significant detail: Novo and Lilly have discussed direct-to-consumer cash pricing for the lowest dose around $150/month once their pills are approved, though final pricing for higher doses and payer pricing remained unclear in the reporting. [12]
Today’s Wall Street tone on Lilly: strong fundamentals, but competition and pricing pressure are the overhangs
While the FDA headline is dominating after-hours trading, today’s analyst-focused writeups reinforce the broader narrative around LLY:
A Nasdaq/Zacks “Top Analyst Reports” roundup published late Monday underscored:
- Lilly’s GLP‑1 franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound) remains the core growth engine
- Additional launches (including Kisunla, Omvoh, Jaypirca) contribute to topline momentum
- The pipeline focus includes the oral GLP‑1 opportunity — but
- Headwinds include declining Trulicity sales, pricing pressure, and intensifying GLP‑1 competition [13]
Separately, a Zacks piece republished via Finviz flagged investor attention and focused on earnings estimate revisions. It cited expectations for $7.48 EPS in the current quarter (+40.6% year over year) and a $23.78 consensus for the fiscal year (+83.1% year over year), while noting consensus estimates have ticked slightly lower over the last 30 days. [14]
Those are not small numbers — and they help explain why LLY’s pullbacks have tended to attract buyers in 2025.
Analyst forecasts: where price targets sit tonight
Consensus targets vary by data provider (because of methodology and coverage lists), but the broad takeaway is that Wall Street still leans constructive — even with a competitive shock headline.
MarketBeat’s current snapshot shows:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” (based on 26 analyst ratings)
- Average 12‑month price target:$1,155.36 (about 7% above the current price)
- Target range:$950 (low) to $1,300 (high) [15]
StockAnalysis, using a different analyst set, shows a tighter implied upside at the moment (average target near $1,084). [16]
How to interpret the spread: It’s less about a “true” target and more about the market admitting uncertainty — especially around how big oral GLP‑1 becomes, and who captures the incremental patients first.
Options traders were active in LLY today — and $1,100 is a key level
One more detail from Monday that matters into Tuesday’s open: options flow.
Nasdaq highlighted “noteworthy options trading volume” in LLY on Dec. 22, with nearly 28,000 contracts traded during the session. It also called out significant activity at the $1,100 strike call expiring Dec. 26, 2025. [17]
That doesn’t automatically mean “bullish” — heavy call volume can reflect directional bets, hedging, overwriting strategies, or spreads — but it does tell you where the market is anchoring: $1,100 is the near-term psychological pivot, and it’s close to LLY’s recent highs. [18]
Another headline today: Abivax takeover chatter resurfaces — but it’s not confirmed
Beyond obesity drugs, Lilly also appeared in today’s M&A rumor mill.
A Reuters item circulated via market feeds said French biotech Abivax moved on media reports suggesting Lilly representatives met with France’s Treasury in early December to gauge regulatory approval for a potential takeover — while noting Reuters could not immediately confirm the report. [19]
This is not the primary driver of LLY’s after-hours move (the obesity pill headline is bigger and directly tied to Lilly’s valuation story), but it’s part of the day’s overall “LLY in focus” newsflow and could resurface if more concrete reporting emerges.
What to watch before the market opens Tuesday, Dec. 23, 2025
With LLY trading lower after hours and the broader market entering holiday conditions, here are the factors most likely to matter between now and Tuesday’s opening bell.
1) Follow-through analyst notes on the Wegovy pill approval
The first wave of analyst commentary often hits late evening and early premarket. The key questions those notes will try to answer:
- Does oral Wegovy meaningfully change 2026 prescription dynamics?
- How quickly can Novo scale supply (Reuters reported Novo has been building supply and is manufacturing in North Carolina)? [20]
- What does “first-to-market” mean if Lilly’s orforglipron decision could come by late March? [21]
- Does Novo’s pill’s dosing restriction become a real-world disadvantage vs. Lilly’s small molecule? [22]
2) Premarket sensitivity: holiday liquidity can magnify moves
Reuters pointed out Monday’s trading volumes were already light and likely to thin further as Christmas approaches, with the U.S. market set for an early close Wednesday and closed Thursday. [23]
The NYSE confirms markets close early at 1:00 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025. [24]
Thin liquidity cuts both ways: it can exaggerate selling pressure — or snapback rallies — especially in mega-caps where ETF flows matter.
3) Macro data at 8:30 a.m. ET: GDP, inflation gauges, and demand indicators
Even a stock-specific story like GLP‑1 competition doesn’t trade in a vacuum — particularly for a high-multiple, “growth-at-scale” name like Lilly.
The BEA confirmed that Dec. 23 will bring an initial estimate of third-quarter GDP and the preliminary estimate of corporate profits at 8:30 a.m. ET (part of a rescheduled, post-shutdown release plan). [25]
The BEA schedule also shows Personal Income and Outlays (November 2025) is set for Dec. 23 at 8:30 a.m. ET — a release investors often watch for PCE-related inflation details embedded in the report. [26]
Investing.com’s preview also pointed to a heavy Tuesday morning slate including GDP, durable goods, housing data, and consumer confidence, which can influence overall risk appetite into year-end positioning. [27]
4) Technical levels that matter into Tuesday
LLY’s price action today gives traders clear reference points:
- Support area: roughly $1,063 (Monday’s low)
- After-hours reference: around $1,065–$1,066 (where it was trading at 6:18 p.m. ET)
- Resistance area: near $1,083–$1,084 (Monday’s high / intraday ceiling)
- Psychological level:$1,100 (also active in options) [28]
If Lilly breaks below Monday’s low in premarket, expect headlines to frame it as “Novo pill approval hits LLY.” If it stabilizes and reclaims the close quickly, the narrative may shift to “market sees Lilly’s own pill timeline as the real catalyst.”
Bottom line: why LLY is down after hours — and why the story isn’t finished
Lilly’s after-hours dip looks like a knee-jerk competitive reprice after Novo Nordisk landed the first FDA approval for an oral GLP‑1 weight-loss drug. [29]
But the next session is likely to hinge less on the headline itself — and more on what it implies for:
- Lilly’s orforglipron timing and differentiation (including convenience and manufacturing advantages) [30]
- Pricing and access (cash-pay offers, payer coverage, and the next phase of affordability pressure) [31]
- Whether holiday-thinned trading amplifies volatility into Christmas week [32]
Going into Tuesday’s open, LLY remains a market-defining healthcare stock — but tonight’s action is a reminder that in the GLP‑1 race, regulatory milestones can still move the tape fast, even for trillion-dollar giants.
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. stockanalysis.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.axios.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.statnews.com, 11. www.statnews.com, 12. www.statnews.com, 13. www.nasdaq.com, 14. finviz.com, 15. www.marketbeat.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.tradingview.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.statnews.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. www.bea.gov, 26. www.bea.gov, 27. www.investing.com, 28. stockanalysis.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.statnews.com, 31. www.axios.com, 32. www.reuters.com
