December 23, 2025 — Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) is trading around $1,076 as investors digest a fresh competitive jolt in the obesity-drug race: the FDA has approved Novo Nordisk’s first daily oral version of Wegovy. The headline is about Novo, but the market’s real question is about Lilly’s moat: can LLY keep dominating the category while a new “pill era” starts to form? [1]
Why Eli Lilly stock is in focus today: the FDA just green-lit the first oral Wegovy
On December 23, Novo Nordisk won U.S. approval for a 25 mg oral Wegovy pill (semaglutide) for chronic weight management—positioning Novo as first-to-market in highly effective oral obesity therapy. Novo has said it expects a U.S. launch in January 2026, leaning heavily into access through large pharmacies and cash-pay pathways. [2]
For Eli Lilly stock, the immediate takeaway is competitive optics: Novo now has the first approved obesity pill, while Lilly’s oral GLP‑1 candidate orforglipron is still in the regulatory queue. Even if injections remain the biggest slice of the market for years, pills could expand the total addressable market by pulling in patients who dislike injections, don’t want refrigeration, or struggle with pharmacy supply dynamics. Reuters cited analysts forecasting that oral obesity drugs could represent about 20% of the market by 2030, which is big enough to matter to Lilly shareholders. [3]
Markets read this as a near-term edge for Novo and a “clock is ticking” moment for Lilly’s pill timeline. Reuters reported Novo shares jumped on the news and noted Lilly shares were slightly lower on the day in reaction. [4]
The key nuance for LLY investors: pills may grow the market, not just reshuffle winners
The obesity category has been acting less like a normal drug class and more like an entire new healthcare “platform” (diabetes, obesity, cardiovascular risk, sleep apnea, fatty liver disease, and more). In that world, format matters: weekly injections created the first wave, but oral therapies could trigger a second wave by broadening adoption—especially among patients paying cash or using telehealth pathways.
Novo is explicitly testing that idea. Reuters reported Novo’s strategy around the pill includes a push into the cash-pay consumer market and distribution through major pharmacies and discount/telehealth platforms, alongside government-linked pricing arrangements for starter doses. [5]
This matters for Eli Lilly stock because it reframes the competitive threat. If oral drugs unlock new patients rather than merely cannibalize injectables, Lilly doesn’t just need to defend share—it needs to ship a pill fast enough to capture incremental demand when the market expands.
Lilly’s obesity business is still the engine—by a lot
Even with today’s “Novo pill” news cycle, Eli Lilly’s current obesity/diabetes franchise remains enormous:
- Lilly’s Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (weight loss) are both tirzepatide-based and have been major demand drivers.
- A Zacks analysis published via Nasdaq reported combined sales of $24.8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, representing 54% of Lilly’s total revenues over that period—an extraordinary level of concentration in one therapeutic platform. [6]
That concentration is a double-edged sword for LLY stock:
- It explains why Lilly has been priced like a category-defining winner.
- It also explains why every obesity-related catalyst (trial data, pricing, supply, competition, safety headlines) can move the stock’s narrative quickly.
The next major LLY catalyst: orforglipron and the race to an obesity pill of its own
Lilly’s biggest near-term swing factor is orforglipron, its oral GLP‑1 candidate. In mid-December, Reuters reported positive read-through from a Phase 3 strategy that mirrors real-world behavior: patients often start on an injectable, then want something easier to stay on long term. Lilly said orforglipron helped maintain weight loss after switching from injectable therapies like Zepbound and Wegovy. [7]
BioPharma Dive reported the trial suggested people taking orforglipron after Wegovy regained less weight than some other groups, and also highlighted that Lilly had formally asked the FDA to approve orforglipron—while flagging a potentially faster-than-usual review pathway tied to an FDA “national priority” voucher program. [8]
A Reuters exclusive earlier this month described internal FDA documents indicating Lilly’s application could be reviewed on an expedited timeline under the new voucher program, potentially compressing a typical review window. [9]
Why this matters for Eli Lilly stock on Dec. 23: Novo’s approval raises the bar for “first-mover advantage,” but it also sharpens what investors will reward next: clarity on when Lilly’s pill could be approved and scaled, and whether its clinical profile and manufacturability can compete well in a price-sensitive market.
Retatrutide: Lilly’s “next-next” lever that could reset expectations again
If orforglipron is Lilly’s race to match Novo in pills, retatrutide is Lilly’s attempt to raise the ceiling on weight-loss efficacy itself.
Reuters reported Lilly’s next-generation obesity drug retatrutide helped patients lose an average of 28.7% of body weight in a late-stage trial—outperforming results commonly associated with current blockbuster therapies—and also noted the study included people with obesity and knee osteoarthritis pain, where benefits were observed. [10]
BioPharma Dive framed it as a “raising the bar” moment, describing high-dose retatrutide outcomes and positioning the data as a competitive warning shot to would-be entrants. [11]
For LLY stock, retatrutide functions like an embedded call option: not the nearest catalyst, but potentially a defining one if later readouts confirm efficacy, tolerability, and commercial feasibility at scale.
Pricing pressure is no longer theoretical: Lilly is already cutting cash-pay prices
One of the most important 2025 shifts for Eli Lilly investors has been the market’s transition from “shortage economics” to “access economics.” Even with blockbuster demand, growth eventually runs into the reality that many patients can’t get coverage—or can’t afford therapy long enough to stay on it.
Lilly has responded with direct-to-consumer and self-pay pricing moves. Reuters reported that beginning December 1, Lilly lowered Zepbound single-dose vial prices for cash-paying patients through LillyDirect: $299/month for the 2.5 mg starter dose (down from $349), $399 for 5 mg (down from $499), and $449 for higher doses under a self-pay program (down from $499). [12]
Lilly’s own Zepbound savings information also lists self-pay pricing and program mechanics (including refill timing rules), underscoring that affordability programs are now a core part of the category playbook—not a side quest. [13]
And the price story isn’t just U.S.-centric. Reuters reported Lilly planned Canada price reductions of 20% or more for Mounjaro and Zepbound effective late December, according to a Globe and Mail report. [14]
Stock implication: price cuts can pressure margins, but they can also expand volume, improve persistence (staying on therapy), and blunt competitive threats—especially as oral options arrive with more price transparency.
Policy and reimbursement: Washington is part of the obesity trade now
Investors can’t analyze Eli Lilly stock in late 2025 without acknowledging that drug pricing has become an active policy battlefield.
Reuters reported that President Donald Trump and multiple drugmakers announced deals aimed at lowering prices for certain medicines sold into Medicaid and for cash payers, while markets weighed the practical impact (given existing rebates and discounts) against the removal of tariff threats. [15]
In the specific GLP‑1 arena, Reuters also reported a government-linked arrangement around starter-dose pricing—a notable signal that access, politics, and pricing are converging around obesity drugs in ways the sector hasn’t historically had to manage. [16]
For LLY shareholders, this is the new reality: the upside is massive, but so is the visibility—and that visibility invites policy pressure.
Safety and legal overhang: GLP‑1 litigation is growing and getting organized
Another headline risk investors are tracking is GLP‑1–related litigation.
Reuters reported that a federal judicial panel centralized a growing set of lawsuits alleging that GLP‑1 drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly led to vision loss (non-arteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy), forming a new multidistrict litigation in Philadelphia federal court separate from existing GI-side-effect litigation—while noting the companies have disputed the claims. [17]
This is unlikely to be a single-day fundamental driver, but it can affect sentiment, headline volatility, and the perceived “risk discount” applied to high-multiple stocks like LLY.
Wall Street forecasts for Eli Lilly stock: optimistic, but less “wide-open” than earlier in the run
Analyst targets around LLY remain generally constructive, but they’re also clustering closer to the current price than they did earlier in the momentum cycle—suggesting the market is increasingly demanding execution (pill approval timelines, supply, pricing discipline) rather than just theme ownership.
- MarketBeat lists an average 12‑month price target around $1,155 (with a range that spans roughly $950 to $1,300 in its snapshot). [18]
- TipRanks shows an average price target around $1,135, with a wider reported range (low end in the $800s and high end up to $1,500 depending on analyst coverage windows). [19]
On the fundamentals side, Lilly’s own Q3 2025 release (via PRNewswire) highlighted:
- Q3 revenue of $17.6 billion (up 54% year over year),
- updated full‑year 2025 revenue guidance of $63.0–$63.5 billion, and
- updated EPS guidance ranges (reported and non‑GAAP). [20]
Meanwhile, a Zacks commentary carried by Nasdaq described Lilly as expensive on a forward earnings basis while pointing to improving earnings estimates—capturing the central tension in the stock: premium valuation vs. premium execution. [21]
What to watch next for LLY stock heading into 2026
As of Dec. 23, 2025, the LLY story is no longer “Will obesity drugs be huge?” That part is already answered. The real drivers now look like this:
- Orforglipron FDA timing and label details — The market will likely treat clarity here as the most important near-term de-risking event, especially after Novo’s oral Wegovy approval. [22]
- Pricing strategy and access expansion — Lilly’s Zepbound self-pay cuts suggest the competitive arena is shifting toward affordability and persistence, not just efficacy. [23]
- Next-gen efficacy and differentiation — Retatrutide’s late-stage results are a reminder that Lilly is trying to win not only today’s market, but the next version of it. [24]
- Headline risk management — Litigation and safety narratives can be noisy, but high-profile, high-usage drug classes tend to attract sustained scrutiny. [25]
Bottom line: Novo’s oral Wegovy approval is a legitimate competitive milestone that changes the tone of the obesity race on Dec. 23, 2025. But for Eli Lilly stock, it’s less a thesis-breaker than a timeline stress test: the market now wants Lilly to prove it can bring its own pill to market quickly, defend access through pricing, and keep its pipeline producing “next chapter” data—all while managing policy and legal crosswinds. [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.nasdaq.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.biopharmadive.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.biopharmadive.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. zepbound.lilly.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.prnewswire.com, 21. www.nasdaq.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com
