December 23, 2025 — Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) is back in the spotlight after U.S. regulators approved a pill version of Wegovy, a milestone that could reshape the fast-growing obesity drug market—and potentially reset the narrative around a stock that’s had a bruising 2025.
In U.S. trading on Dec. 23, Novo Nordisk shares traded around $52, up roughly 9% on the day, as investors digested what the approval means for market share, pricing power, and the competitive race with Eli Lilly. [1]
What happened to Novo Nordisk stock on Dec. 23, 2025?
Novo Nordisk’s rally was driven by a single, high-impact catalyst: the company is now first to market in the U.S. with a high-efficacy oral GLP‑1 weight-loss treatment.
Reuters reported Novo shares jumped about 10% in Europe and around 9% in early U.S. trading after the FDA’s decision, with investors treating the pill as a potential “momentum reset” for Novo’s obesity franchise. [2]
That move was large enough to ripple into broader markets: Reuters also linked Novo’s surge to a healthcare-led lift in European equities, with the STOXX 600 briefly hitting a record high amid strength in the sector. [3]
FDA approves Wegovy pill: what exactly got cleared?
Novo Nordisk says the FDA approved Wegovy pill (once‑daily oral semaglutide 25 mg) for chronic weight management—and also for reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in certain patients, expanding the product’s clinical “value story” beyond the scale. [4]
The Reuters explainer described it as the first GLP‑1 pill specifically for obesity (still branded Wegovy) and emphasized the strategic importance: it could broaden access to millions of patients and give Novo a badly needed boost in an intensely competitive category. [5]
How effective is the Wegovy pill?
This is where details matter, because different write-ups describe slightly different “averages” depending on how the trial results are framed:
- Novo Nordisk’s announcement highlights 16.6% mean weight loss in the OASIS 4 trial “when treatment was adhered to,” and says about one in three participants achieved 20%+ weight loss. [6]
- Reuters likewise cites 16.6% average weight loss at 64 weeks versus 2.7% on placebo. [7]
- AP and other consumer-focused coverage commonly summarize weight loss around the mid‑teens (for example, AP reports about 13.6% over about 15 months), while still noting that adherence and protocol details can shift the headline number. [8]
The practical takeaway for investors: the pill appears highly competitive on efficacy for an oral option, even if injections remain the “ceiling” for maximum weight loss in many regimens.
What’s the dosing catch?
Convenience is the whole point of a pill—yet the rules of taking it can influence real-world demand.
Reuters notes Novo’s pill needs to be taken in the morning on an empty stomach, with a wait time of 30 minutes before eating, drinking, or taking other oral medications. That’s not unusual for some peptide-based oral drugs, but it does introduce a compliance hurdle. [9]
Pricing and launch strategy: why Wall Street is watching the self-pay channel
Novo says it expects to launch Wegovy pill in the U.S. in early January 2026. [10]
But the bigger “investor” storyline emerging on Dec. 23 is how Novo plans to sell it.
Reuters reported Novo is aiming straight at the cash-pay (self-pay) consumer market from day one—leaning on a distribution mix that includes retail pharmacies (such as CVS and Walmart), online platforms (such as GoodRx), and telehealth partners (including Ro and WeightWatchers), so patients can start therapy without waiting for traditional insurance coverage decisions. [11]
That’s a notable pivot from the classic U.S. pharma playbook (win insurers first, then scale), and it’s happening as cash-pay GLP‑1 demand becomes a meaningful slice of the market. Reuters cited a Novo executive saying the share of U.S. Wegovy prescriptions coming through self-pay channels rose from about 5% to double digits in 2025. [12]
The $149/month headline price—and what it does (and doesn’t) mean
Multiple reports tied the launch environment to a November agreement with the Trump administration. Under that deal, Novo and Eli Lilly agreed to offer starter doses of their obesity pills (if approved) for $149 per month for certain Medicare/Medicaid patients and cash-paying customers who can’t get coverage, tied to the administration’s direct-to-consumer TrumpRx initiative expected to list weight-loss drugs starting in January. [13]
Key nuance: Reuters also notes Novo has not disclosed a U.S. list price for the pill, and that injectable list prices are around $1,000+ per month, even though both Novo and Lilly have offered lower cash prices in certain channels. [14]
Investors will be watching whether Novo can use self-pay access to drive volume growth without permanently resetting the category’s pricing floor.
Forecasts and market outlook: how big could oral obesity drugs get?
The market’s excitement isn’t just about one product—it’s about the possibility that pills expand the obesity category from “injection-accepting early adopters” to a much wider population.
Market size forecasts are gigantic
A Reuters factbox summarized expectations that the weight-loss drug market could expand to more than $150 billion in annual revenue by the early 2030s. [15]
Reuters’ explainer similarly framed obesity drugs as driving what analysts expect will become a $150 billion-a-year global obesity market by the next decade. [16]
How much share could pills take?
Reuters reported that oral drugs are not expected to fully replace injectables, but that analysts estimate pills could capture around one-fifth of the market by 2030. [17]
That “20% by 2030” figure matters for NVO valuation models: it suggests oral therapies may become a substantial second lane of growth rather than a niche alternative.
A concrete sales forecast for Wegovy pill
Reuters cited a Sydbank analyst estimate that Wegovy pill could reach global peak annual sales of about 24 billion Danish crowns (roughly $3.8 billion), with a strong launch helping Novo offset headwinds expected in 2026. [18]
That is not a guarantee—just a forecast—but it’s a real, published number investors can plug into scenarios.
Competitive landscape: Eli Lilly’s pill and the widening race
Novo’s first-mover advantage is real—but it may also be brief.
Lilly’s orforglipron is the next major catalyst
Reuters notes Eli Lilly’s experimental oral obesity drug orforglipron is expected to receive a U.S. decision as early as March 2026 (depending on the review timeline) and that FDA leadership has pushed internally to speed evaluation. [19]
And the head-to-head details will matter:
- Reuters reported Novo’s pill produced 16.6% average weight loss in the late-stage data cited, while Lilly’s pill showed about 12.4% at 72 weeks in one late-stage trial. [20]
- Convenience could be a differentiator: Reuters says Lilly’s pill can be taken any time of day, while Novo’s requires the empty-stomach morning routine. [21]
- Manufacturing economics could be another: Reuters notes Lilly’s is a small molecule (typically easier to manufacture at scale in traditional facilities), while Novo’s is a peptide requiring more complex production. [22]
In other words, Novo’s pill may win on “efficacy first,” while Lilly may counter with “simplicity and scale.”
The field is getting crowded
The Reuters factbox also highlights a widening bench of oral obesity contenders beyond the two giants, naming companies and programs across Structure Therapeutics, AstraZeneca, Roche, Viking Therapeutics and others. [23]
For NVO investors, the implication is straightforward: the obesity drug market may keep growing, but durable leadership will require constant iteration—new formulations, better tolerability, easier dosing, broader access, and (inevitably) sharper pricing.
The bigger picture for NVO stock: a 2025 drawdown meets a potential 2026 inflection
Today’s rally lands in the middle of a much larger investor narrative: Novo Nordisk stock has been trying to recover from a steep 2025 slide.
- Investopedia noted that even after Tuesday’s pop, Novo shares had still lost more than a third of their value in 2025, pressured by competition and political pressure around drug pricing. [24]
- A Nasdaq.com analysis published earlier in December said NVO was down roughly 41.5% year-to-date at that time, despite Novo resolving U.S. supply constraints for injectable semaglutide. [25]
Meanwhile, Novo has had to manage growth expectations. Reuters previously reported the company cut forecasts again in 2025, trimming its sales and operating profit growth outlook for the year. [26]
And on pricing, Reuters reported Novo expected an estimated negative low single-digit impact on global sales growth in 2026 following a deal to lower prices of popular GLP‑1 drugs for U.S. government-backed programs and cash payers. [27]
Put simply: the Wegovy pill approval is bullish, but the medium-term question is whether it’s bullish enough to offset pricing pressure and a more competitive market structure.
What investors should watch next
A single FDA approval can move a stock for a day. What moves it for a year is execution. For Novo Nordisk, the next “tell” points are likely to be:
- January 2026 launch data: early demand signals, refill behavior, and how quickly Novo can scale beyond starter doses. [28]
- Self-pay economics: whether direct-to-consumer and telehealth distribution grows volumes without compressing margins more than investors expect. [29]
- Competitive timing: any updates to Eli Lilly’s oral pill review and launch trajectory. [30]
- 2026 pricing dynamics: how government and cash-pay pricing initiatives translate into net pricing and revenue growth. [31]
Bottom line: a real win, but not the end of the fight
Novo Nordisk got the headline it wanted to end 2025: first FDA-approved GLP‑1 pill for obesity and a stock surge to match. [32]
But the Dec. 23 coverage also makes clear why investors are likely to stay both excited and demanding: competition is accelerating, pricing is under the microscope, and the oral market could become the next battlefield where “good drug” is only half the story and “best launch + best access + best economics” decides the long-run winner. [33]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.novonordisk.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.novonordisk.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.novonordisk.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.marketscreener.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.marketscreener.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.novonordisk.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.reuters.com
