BHP Group Ltd Stock Update (Dec. 24, 2025): Copper at $12,000, China Iron Ore Talks, and 2026 Forecasts in Focus

BHP Group Ltd stock is ending 2025 with a familiar personality split: iron ore is still the cash engine, copper is the growth narrative, and legal and geopolitical headlines are the wild cards.

On Wednesday, December 24, 2025, BHP’s Australian-listed shares were holding near recent highs, with BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) around A$45.62 on the latest session data, while the U.S.-listed ADR (NYSE: BHP) last showed about $61.08 on December 23 pricing. ^[1]

What’s changed in the past week is the tone around diversified miners: copper has surged through the psychological $12,000-per-tonne level, reinforcing the “electrification + AI data centers” demand story at the exact moment banks and government forecasters are warning that iron ore looks softer into 2026. ^[2]

Below is a complete, publication-ready roundup of the latest news, forecasts, and market analyses impacting BHP stock as of Dec. 24, 2025—and what investors are watching next.

Where BHP Group Ltd stock stands heading into year-end

BHP’s price action has been firm into late December:

ASX: BHP shows A$45.620 on Dec. 24 in Investing.com’s daily data, following a strong run earlier in the month. ^[3]
NYSE: BHP (ADR) shows $61.08 on Dec. 23 in Investing.com’s daily data. ^[4]
A separate performance snapshot lists BHP up about 15.39% for calendar 2025 (with a 2025 high around A$45.98 and low around A$33.25 in that dataset). ^[5]

That’s the market saying, in effect: “We’ll pay up for scale, dividends, and optionality—especially if copper keeps screaming higher.”

The copper shock: why $12,000 matters for BHP stock

Copper is the headline commodity on Dec. 24, and it matters for BHP Group Ltd stock because BHP has been openly positioning copper as a core “future-facing” pillar.

Copper breaks above $12,000 per tonne

Reports this week described copper pushing above $12,000 per tonne, with moves attributed to tariff concerns, supply shortages/outages, and broader metals strength into year-end. ^[6]

A Reuters analysis earlier in December also framed the rally around tight supply meeting new demand tied to AI-era power needs—and highlighted forecasts for market deficits in 2025 and 2026. ^[7]

BHP is investing into copper growth

BHP’s strategy isn’t just talk. In October, Reuters reported BHP would invest more than A$840 million (about $555 million) into initiatives at Olympic Dam in South Australia as part of a longer pathway toward potentially doubling copper output in the state to 650,000 tonnes by the mid‑2030s, subject to future decisions. ^[8]

Forecasts: copper prices and Australia’s outlook

Australia’s government has been marking up parts of the copper outlook. Reuters reported the Department of Industry revised up its copper price forecasts (and pointed to data centers as a demand driver), alongside broader resource export expectations. ^[9]
The Department’s Resources and Energy Quarterly (December 2025) also projects rising Australian copper export volumes and higher earnings into 2026–27, supported by new mines/expansions and prices. ^[10]

For BHP investors, the implication is straightforward: if copper remains structurally tight, BHP’s “growth multiple” argument looks more credible—even if iron ore moderates.

Iron ore: still BHP’s backbone, but 2026 forecasts are cooling

Iron ore remains the single most important commodity for BHP’s earnings power. So even with copper stealing the spotlight, the biggest question for BHP Group Ltd stock into 2026 is: does iron ore stay “resilient,” or does it finally roll over?

China steel output is weakening—yet iron ore imports are strong

Reuters reported that China’s steel production has been sliding, with 2025 output projected to be the lowest since 2018, reflecting weak demand in property and softness elsewhere. ^[11]

At the same time, Reuters noted iron ore imports are on track for a record, supported by restocking and pricing dynamics—though rising port inventories could cap further stockpiling. ^[12]

That divergence is crucial for BHP: imports can stay strong even as end-demand weakens—until inventory behavior changes.

Bank forecast: Westpac sees a notable drop by end‑2026

Westpac IQ’s December commodities update forecast a 20% fall in iron ore to US$83/t by end‑2026, tying the view to widening gaps between input costs and Chinese steel prices and historical precedent for “corrections.” ^[13]

Government forecast: gradual easing, export earnings drift down

Australia’s Resources and Energy Quarterly (December 2025) expects iron ore prices to decline in coming years as supply rises (including from Africa, Brazil, and Australia), and forecasts Australian iron ore export earnings easing from $116 billion (2024–25) to $114 billion (2025–26) and $107 billion (2026–27). ^[14]

Reuters also summarized the same government outlook, reporting expectations for iron ore prices around $87/ton in the current financial year, and $83/ton in 2026–27 (per that report). ^[15]

Translation for BHP stock: copper can help, but iron ore still sets the baseline. If iron ore falls meaningfully, BHP needs either (a) copper strength, (b) cost discipline, or (c) capital returns to cushion sentiment.

China–BHP iron ore standoff: a headline risk that could bleed into 2026

One of the more idiosyncratic BHP risks in late 2025 has been the dispute involving China’s state-backed iron ore buyer.

Reuters previously reported that China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) asked buyers to halt purchases of certain BHP products (including Jimblebar Blend Fines) while annual contract terms were negotiated for 2026 supply, with trade still frozen at the time of reporting and BHP stating negotiations were ongoing. ^[16]

An ING analysis argued the dispute looked more like a negotiating tactic than a permanent break, but warned it could raise near-term volatility, potentially forcing rerouting/discounting if unresolved; ING also noted BHP had kept full‑year 2026 production guidance unchanged (258–269 million tonnes) in that context. ^[17]

Additional reporting in Australia this week described iron ore shipments waiting at ports and negotiations touching pricing and currency terms, while BHP emphasized continued operations and pointed to broader trade volatility risks in 2026. ^[18]

For investors, this is less about “one quarter’s volumes” and more about pricing power and contract structure. Even a temporary disruption can affect realized prices and introduce messy uncertainty into forecasts.

Company news: BHP’s $2bn WAIO power deal and major litigation updates

$2bn infrastructure deal with BlackRock’s GIP

BHP announced in December it entered into a US$2 billion infrastructure agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP)—part of BlackRock—tied to Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) inland power.

Under BHP’s description, a trust entity will be created that is 51% owned/controlled by BHP, with GIP funding US$2 billion for a 49% stake, and BHP paying a tariff linked to power usage over 25 years. ^[19]

Reuters characterized the deal as part of BHP’s efforts to recycle capital and strengthen balance sheet flexibility, while retaining operational control. ^[20]

Why it matters for BHP Group Ltd stock: it’s a very “big miner 2025” move—monetize infrastructure, keep control, free capital—and it signals continued financial engineering discipline even while BHP funds copper growth.

Samarco Australian securities class action settlement approved

BHP also reported that the Federal Court of Australia approved the settlement of the Australian Samarco shareholder class action, with BHP agreeing to pay AU$110 million (inclusive of interest and costs), with no admission of liability, and expecting to recover the majority from insurers. ^[21]

UK group action: liability ruling and legal cost demand

On the UK litigation front tied to the 2015 Fundão dam failure, BHP’s own update stated the English High Court found BHP liable under Brazilian law, that BHP intends to appeal, and that expected cash outflows related to Samarco remained largely aligned with US$2.2 billion (FY2026) and US$0.5 billion (FY2027) as previously disclosed, with a longer multi-stage process extending into the late 2020s. ^[22]

Separate reporting described a £189 million legal costs demand following the liability ruling, with the damages phase set for later proceedings. ^[23]

This is a classic equity-market dilemma: litigation can be “known risk” for years, but cost headlines can still trigger valuation discounts when they spike unexpectedly.

Analyst forecasts for BHP stock: “Hold” consensus and a lower target on ADR pricing

Analyst aggregates still look cautious on valuation.

MarketBeat’s compiled view (for the NYSE ADR) shows:

Consensus rating: Hold (based on 10 analyst ratings)
Consensus 12‑month price target: $48.50, with a stated downside versus the then‑current price around $61.07
Range of targets listed around $44 to $53 ^[24]

Two important caveats for readers:

These are aggregated targets (not a single bank’s call).
BHP trades across markets; ADR pricing can reflect FX moves and market-specific flows, not just fundamentals.

Still, the message is clear: the market is paying for copper optionality—but analysts aren’t universally convinced the stock should trade at the current premium without clearer earnings momentum.

What to watch next for BHP Group Ltd stock

Near-term catalysts (early 2026)

BHP’s financial calendar shows key upcoming dates investors typically track:

Operational Review for the half year ended Dec. 31, 2025: Jan. 20, 2026
Half-year Results for the half year ended Dec. 31, 2025: Feb. 17, 2026 ^[25]

Those updates matter because they can reset expectations on production, unit costs, and capital allocation—especially if iron ore pricing shifts or copper volumes surprise.

Dividends and capital returns remain part of the thesis

BHP confirmed a final dividend for 2025 of US$0.60 per share, equivalent to a 60% payout ratio, paid on Sept. 25, 2025 (per BHP’s shareholder information). ^[26]

For many long-term holders, BHP is not bought for “story”—it’s bought for cash generation and disciplined returns, with copper as upside.

The big 2026 debate: copper strength vs iron ore gravity

BHP’s 2026 narrative will likely hinge on three moving pieces:

Copper: Can supply tightness persist and keep prices elevated, or do new projects and demand volatility cool the rally? ^[27]
Iron ore: Does the market glide down gradually (government view), or do we get the sharper correction banks warn about (Westpac’s view)? ^[28]
China contract dynamics: Do negotiations normalize, or does procurement centralization become a more persistent pricing lever? ^[29]

Bottom line

As of Dec. 24, 2025, BHP Group Ltd stock sits at the intersection of two powerful macro currents:

A copper boom that is re-rating diversified miners with credible copper growth pipelines. ^[30]
A cautious iron ore outlook for 2026 that could pressure earnings even if volumes stay solid. ^[31]

Layer on top a live China negotiation, a high-profile infrastructure monetization deal, and ongoing litigation developments, and you get a year-end setup that’s anything but sleepy—even on a holiday-shortened week. ^[32]