Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is spending Christmas Eve in a familiar place: right at the center of the market’s biggest debate.
On Wednesday, December 24, 2025, Tesla shares traded around the mid-$480s, after opening near $490 in a shortened U.S. trading session ahead of the holiday. Volumes are notably lighter than normal—exactly the kind of tape where headline risk (good or bad) can feel amplified. [1]
But the real story isn’t just where TSLA is trading. It’s why Tesla can sit near record territory even as parts of its core EV business face visible pressure—and how quickly sentiment can shift when safety, regulation, and autonomy collide.
Below is a comprehensive round-up of the key Tesla stock news, forecasts, and analyses circulating on Dec. 24, 2025, and what investors are watching next.
What Tesla stock is doing on Dec. 24, 2025
Early Wednesday, TSLA traded around $485 in premarket/early action, down modestly from the prior close, with an opening print near $489.86.
Markets are also operating under a holiday schedule: U.S. stock markets are set to close at 1 p.m. ET on Dec. 24 and remain closed on Dec. 25, which typically reduces liquidity and can exaggerate moves in either direction. [2]
The headline risk today: NHTSA opens a Tesla Model 3 emergency door-release probe
One of the most consequential Tesla-specific headlines dated Dec. 24 comes from Washington.
Reuters reports that the U.S. auto safety regulator opened a defect investigation into Tesla Model 3 vehicles over concerns that emergency door release controls may not be easily accessible or clearly identifiable in an emergency. The probe covers an estimated 179,071 model year 2022 Model 3 vehicles. [3]
According to Reuters, the investigation follows a defect petition alleging the mechanical door release is hidden, unlabeled, and not intuitive to locate during emergencies. Tesla did not immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment, the report said. [4]
Why this matters for TSLA stock:
- Recalls and safety actions can create direct costs, but more importantly, they can affect brand trust—a meaningful factor for a company whose valuation increasingly reflects a “platform + software + autonomy” narrative.
- Door access and crash egress concerns are also a reputational flashpoint because they’re easy for consumers to understand and hard for investors to dismiss as “noise.”
Adding to the broader context, Car and Driver summarized a Bloomberg investigation asserting that at least 15 deaths were linked to situations where Tesla doors would not open following a crash, and noted that NHTSA opened a Model Y door-handle investigation earlier in 2025. [5]
Robotaxis are still the center of the bull case—here’s what’s new
Even as safety and regulatory scrutiny persists, much of Wall Street is still valuing Tesla like an AI/autonomy company rather than a pure automaker.
A Reuters robotaxi factbox (dated Dec. 24) captures why. Reuters notes Tesla began a limited paid robotaxi rollout in Austin in June, using Model Y vehicles in a restricted area and requiring a safety monitor onboard, while also testing vehicles without safety monitors. Reuters also reports Tesla operates a ride-hailing service in the San Francisco Bay Area and received a permit in November to operate in Arizona. [6]
In parallel, Reuters covered an incident that highlights both the promise and fragility of the robotaxi category: Waymo said it would update software and improve emergency response protocols after a San Francisco power outage caused robotaxis to stall and snarl traffic. The California Public Utilities Commission said it was reviewing the issue, Reuters reported. [7]
For Tesla investors, this matters in two ways:
- Competitive framing: Any problems at a leading rival can reinforce the idea that the market is early—and that “execution winners” could capture huge upside.
- Regulatory framing: Incidents also strengthen the case that autonomy will move at the pace regulators allow, not the pace companies promise.
EV demand is wobbling, but Tesla’s valuation narrative has moved on
A major theme in today’s Tesla coverage: EV unit economics and sales trends look weaker than the stock.
MarketWatch reports that Tesla’s EV sales in 2025 have declined sharply in some regions (including Europe), while investor focus remains pinned to the company’s longer-term robotaxi and AI ambitions. MarketWatch also notes analysts increasingly treat near-term EV softness as secondary to autonomy/robotics optionality. [8]
That “narrative shift” is also reflected in today’s Barron’s framing: Tesla stock is near the psychological $500 level, and the market is increasingly valuing Tesla on the prospects for robotaxis and even humanoid robots, rather than just quarterly vehicle deliveries. [9]
Tesla stock forecasts: where analysts see TSLA going next
The consensus view: “Hold,” with a wide dispersion
MarketBeat’s analyst compilation shows Tesla with a consensus “Hold” rating based on 44 analyst ratings, and an average 12-month price target of $414.50—below where the stock trades today. MarketBeat also shows a strikingly wide target range, with a high target of $600 and a low target of $19.05. [10]
That spread tells you something important: Tesla isn’t being valued on a tidy “next year’s earnings” model. It’s being valued on probabilities—probabilities that robotaxis scale, software revenue expands, Optimus becomes commercial, and Tesla maintains an edge against China’s EV ecosystem and legacy OEMs.
Bullish updates: higher targets tied to autonomy
MarketWatch reports that Canaccord analyst George Gianarikas raised his Tesla target price (even as he reduced near-term EV expectations), emphasizing investor confidence in Tesla’s AI future. [11]
A separate MarketBeat feature also highlights how the “$500 zone” has become a technical and psychological battleground, and notes multiple firms reiterating or raising targets tied to autonomy/robotaxi expectations (including mentions of aggressive targets from firms like Wedbush in the broader media ecosystem). [12]
The bear case: valuation risk and fundamentals
On the bearish side, a Seeking Alpha analysis published Dec. 24 argues Tesla’s fundamentals (sales volumes and margins) have been deteriorating while the share price has surged, and describes Tesla’s valuation as disconnected from “competitive and financial realities,” citing a very high forward earnings multiple. [13]
And UBS remains one of the more cautious major firms: an Investing.com report says UBS reiterated a Sell rating with a $247 target, while cutting its Q4 2025 delivery forecast to 415,000 units from 429,000, ahead of Tesla’s expected delivery release on Jan. 2. [14]
Why $500 matters so much for TSLA right now
In today’s tape, $500 is less about fundamentals and more about positioning.
- Technically: A clean break and hold above $500 can trigger systematic buying, momentum strategies, and options-related flows.
- Psychologically: Round numbers attract headlines, attention, and retail participation.
- Narratively: Bulls view $500 as a “proof point” that the market is pricing in robotaxi scale; bears view it as a “warning label” that expectations are outrunning evidence.
Barron’s described Tesla as “fighting for $500,” noting the stock recently approached an all-time high just under that mark and spotlighting how the debate is increasingly framed around autonomy rather than EV sales. [15]
The regulatory overhang investors can’t ignore
Even if robotaxi progress drives upside optionality, Tesla faces multiple regulatory fronts that can shape sentiment quickly:
1) Federal vehicle safety scrutiny (NHTSA)
Today’s Model 3 emergency door-release probe is now a live catalyst, with potential pathways ranging from minimal action to a broader defect action depending on what investigators find. [16]
2) California marketing and licensing pressure
Separately, California regulators have threatened a 30-day suspension of Tesla’s sales license tied to deceptive self-driving marketing claims, according to AP reporting earlier this month. Even when not “breaking today,” this is highly relevant to the autonomy narrative because it targets the language Tesla uses to sell the product investors are valuing most. [17]
The near-term catalyst that could move TSLA: Q4 deliveries
While the market narrative has shifted toward autonomy, deliveries still matter because they anchor cash flow, margin trends, and credibility.
UBS’ note (via Investing.com) is blunt about the pattern: Tesla shares have historically reacted to beats/misses versus consensus deliveries, even when buy-side expectations differ. And the firm points to Jan. 2 as the expected delivery report date. [18]
If the print surprises either direction, it can easily dominate the first week of 2026—especially because markets are exiting a holiday period with thinner positioning.
Tesla’s longer game: manufacturing investment and vertical integration
Tesla is also continuing to invest in production strategy even as the EV market becomes more competitive.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Tesla is ramping up battery cell investments at its German gigafactory in Grünheide, aiming for up to 8 GWh of annual battery cell output starting in 2027, and bringing total investment in the battery cell facility to nearly €1 billion ($1.2 billion). [19]
Strategically, that supports Tesla’s long-standing push toward vertical integration—though Tesla has also acknowledged the challenge of producing cells economically in Europe compared with China and the U.S., according to the same Reuters report. [20]
What to watch next: the Tesla stock checklist for late Dec. 2025 and early 2026
Here are the high-signal items that traders and longer-term investors are tracking now:
- NHTSA door-release investigation scope and next steps (Model 3 today; Model Y already under separate scrutiny). [21]
- Robotaxi expansion evidence: geography, safety-driver removal, and reliability in real-world conditions. [22]
- Q4 deliveries (expected Jan. 2) and how the market responds versus consensus expectations. [23]
- California licensing/marketing deadlines around autonomy language—because this touches the product story powering the multiple. [24]
- The $500 level: whether TSLA can reclaim it decisively or continues to stall just below it. [25]
Bottom line for Tesla stock on Dec. 24, 2025
Tesla stock is near record levels because investors are paying for a future where Tesla becomes a scaled autonomy and robotics platform—not just a carmaker. That same premise is why the stock can be unusually sensitive to:
- Safety headlines that challenge the “trust” component of autonomy, and
- Regulatory actions that constrain how Tesla can market (and potentially monetize) its self-driving ambitions. [26]
Today’s NHTSA probe into Model 3 emergency door releases adds fresh headline risk, while the broader robotaxi arms race continues to keep bullish price targets in play—even as bears argue the valuation is outrunning fundamentals. [27]
Note: This article is for informational purposes and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.caranddriver.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.marketwatch.com, 9. www.barrons.com, 10. www.marketbeat.com, 11. www.marketwatch.com, 12. www.marketbeat.com, 13. seekingalpha.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.barrons.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. apnews.com, 18. www.investing.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.investing.com, 24. apnews.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com
