Exxon Mobil Corporation stock (NYSE: XOM) traded around $119.62 in holiday-thinned action on Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025, as investors balanced a fresh geopolitical headline tied directly to Exxon’s long-running Russia exit, a late-December rebound in crude prices, and a steady drumbeat of analyst targets clustering in the low $130s.
With U.S. markets operating on a shortened Christmas Eve session (stocks closing early), price moves across energy names are being amplified by lighter volumes—often making “headline sensitivity” more pronounced than on a normal trading day. [1]
Below is what matters most for Exxon Mobil stock today: the Russia/Sakhalin-1 update, the crude-oil tape driving sector sentiment into year-end, and what current forecasts imply for XOM heading into early 2026.
Exxon Mobil stock price today: where XOM is trading on Dec. 24, 2025
As of today’s session, Exxon Mobil shares were around $119.62, modestly higher versus the prior close, with the day’s trading range roughly $119.14 to $120.045.
That places XOM near the upper end of its recent trading band at a time when energy investors are weighing two competing forces:
- Supportive near-term tape: crude oil has climbed for several sessions on geopolitical supply risks.
- Bigger-picture pressure: crude benchmarks are still tracking their steepest annual declines since 2020, according to today’s commodities reporting. [2]
The big Exxon headline on Dec. 24: Russia extends the deadline to sell Exxon’s Sakhalin-1 stake
The most Exxon-specific news today comes out of Moscow.
According to Reuters, Russian President Vladimir Putin extended by one year the deadline for the sale of ExxonMobil’s stake in the Sakhalin-1 oil and gas project—pushing it to Jan. 1, 2027, via a decree published Wednesday. [3]
Why this matters for XOM investors:
- It keeps the “Russia unwind” file open. Exxon exited Russia after the Ukraine war began, but Sakhalin-1 has remained a complex, slow-moving financial and legal situation.
- It connects to past write-downs. Reuters notes Exxon took a $4.6 billion impairment charge in April 2022 related to its 30% operator stake in the project. [4]
- It hints at a potential pathway to loss recovery—eventually. Reuters reports that, in September, sources said Exxon and Rosneft had signed a non-binding initial agreement aimed at helping Exxon recoup losses, although meaningful progress may depend on sanctions and a Ukraine peace deal. [5]
- It follows an earlier policy signal. Reuters adds that in August, Putin signed a decree allowing foreign investors to regain shares in Sakhalin-1. [6]
Bottom line: This is not an “earnings tomorrow” type catalyst, but it is material because it touches the long tail of Exxon’s Russia exposure—an issue that periodically resurfaces in valuation discussions, especially when geopolitical risk premiums rise.
Oil prices are rebounding late in December—and that’s supporting energy sentiment
Energy stocks rarely trade in a vacuum. For Exxon, the upstream business is still highly sensitive to crude and natural gas realizations, even though the company’s integrated model (refining, chemicals, and marketing) can cushion some commodity swings.
On Dec. 24, Reuters reported oil rising for a sixth consecutive session, supported by:
- Strong U.S. economic growth data
- Geopolitical supply risks (including Venezuela-related disruptions and continuing Russia–Ukraine strikes on energy infrastructure) [7]
At the time of Reuters’ update, Brent was around $62.51/bbl and WTI around $58.60/bbl. [8]
However, the same report underscores the tension in the 2025 narrative: despite the bounce, Brent and WTI are still on track to fall about 16% and 18% for the year, respectively—citing expectations that supply may outpace demand next year. [9]
For Exxon shareholders, this mix typically translates into a familiar setup:
- Near term: if crude keeps firming, XOM often benefits from improved sentiment and upward revisions risk.
- Medium term: if the market leans into a 2026 surplus story, energy equities can drift even if balance sheets are strong—until a demand surprise or supply shock resets expectations.
Another geopolitical supply wrinkle: CPC export disruptions tied to Kazakhstan barrels
A second Reuters story today adds context to the oil tape: Kazakhstan’s crude exports via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) route are expected to fall sharply due to damage at the main export terminal near Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, after a Ukrainian drone attack and weather-delayed repairs. [10]
Reuters reports:
- CPC Blend loadings revised down to ~1.14 million bpd from 1.7 million bpd in the initial plan
- The route is used for oil from Kazakhstan’s fields operated by major companies including Chevron, Exxon Mobil, Eni and Shell
- Reduced CPC flows can tighten certain crude differentials and contribute to broader benchmark support in the short run [11]
For Exxon specifically, this is less about a direct, quantified earnings impact (Reuters frames it more as a market supply headline than an Exxon operational shock) and more about the macro backdrop: supply disruptions are piling up in late December, which can stabilize crude prices—and in turn, stabilize energy equity sentiment.
Exxon’s fundamentals: dividends, buybacks, and what the company last reported
Even when crude is choppy, Exxon’s shareholder-return framework tends to be the anchor for longer-term holders.
Q3 2025 results snapshot
In its third-quarter 2025 release, Exxon reported:
- Earnings of $7.5 billion (about $1.76 per diluted share)
- Cash flow from operations of $14.8 billion
- Free cash flow of $6.3 billion
- Total shareholder distributions of $9.4 billion (including $4.2 billion of dividends and $5.1 billion of share repurchases) [12]
Dividend: raised to $1.03 per share quarterly
Exxon also declared a fourth-quarter dividend of $1.03 per share, described as a 4% increase, and highlighted that it has increased its annual dividend per share for 43 consecutive years. [13]
For income-focused investors, that dividend record remains central to the “own it through cycles” thesis—particularly when oil prices are weak and the stock tends to trade more like a yield + buyback story than a high-beta commodity play.
Exxon’s 2030 plan update: the long-term “story stock” angle for XOM
While today’s tape is being driven by Russia and crude prices, Exxon’s longer-range strategy update from earlier this month is still shaping many analyst notes and valuation models.
In its Dec. 9, 2025 corporate plan update, Exxon said it raised its outlook through 2030, including:
- $25 billion in earnings growth from 2024 to 2030 (constant prices and margins)
- $35 billion in cash flow growth over the same period (constant prices and margins)
- ~$145 billion in cumulative surplus cash flow through 2030, framed at $65 real Brent
- A plan to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 and maintain that pace through 2026 assuming reasonable market conditions
- A target for upstream production to rise to 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, with advantaged assets (Permian, Guyana, LNG) expected to comprise a large share [14]
This matters for the stock in a very practical way: when crude prices are soft, the market often asks whether majors will cut buybacks or slow growth. Exxon’s messaging here is designed to do the opposite—argue that the company can grow and return cash without increasing capex, largely by shifting mix, driving structural cost savings, and prioritizing “advantaged” barrels. [15]
Analyst forecasts on Dec. 24, 2025: what Wall Street is projecting for XOM
Analyst targets for Exxon vary by data source and the set of firms included, but the center of gravity is consistently in the low $130s as of today.
Consensus price targets cluster around $130–$132
- StockAnalysis.com shows an average price target of $130.74 with a consensus rating of “Buy” (low $105, high $158). [16]
- Investing.com shows an average 12-month price target of $131.56 with an overall consensus “Buy” (low $109, high $158), based on its poll methodology. [17]
- MarketBeat lists an average target of $129.45 and characterizes the consensus as “Moderate Buy,” highlighting a mix of buy and hold ratings. [18]
How to interpret this: With XOM around ~$120 today, these consensus targets broadly imply high-single-digit to low-double-digit upside over the next year—but they also show a meaningful dispersion between the bearish and bullish ends of the range. [19]
Why the dispersion is wide for Exxon
For a company like Exxon, price targets tend to diverge based on three key assumptions:
- Oil and gas price decks: Small differences in long-run Brent/WTI assumptions can materially change NAV-style models.
- Confidence in “advantaged asset” execution: Particularly Permian efficiency, Guyana ramp, and LNG contributions. [20]
- Capital return durability: Whether buybacks and dividends remain steady in lower-price scenarios. [21]
Key dates and catalysts to watch next for Exxon stock
Next earnings: late January 2026 (estimated)
Several market calendars currently estimate Exxon’s next earnings release around Jan. 30, 2026, noting the company has not necessarily confirmed the exact date yet. [22]
Given how much Exxon’s near-term results still hinge on commodity realizations and refining/chemical margins, the next print is likely to refocus the stock on:
- realized upstream pricing vs. benchmarks,
- downstream margin commentary,
- and the pace of buybacks relative to guidance.
Macro catalysts that can move XOM without company news
Today’s Reuters oil report specifically highlights geopolitics (Venezuela disruptions, Russia–Ukraine energy infrastructure attacks) as supportive factors behind the crude rebound. [23]
In practical terms, that means XOM can move on:
- sudden shifts in sanctions enforcement,
- pipeline/export disruptions,
- inventory surprises (especially around holiday-delayed reports),
- and forward guidance from OPEC+ and large producers.
Exxon Mobil stock outlook: the bull case vs. bear case as of Dec. 24, 2025
This is the framework many investors are using right now—especially with crude bouncing, but 2025 still shaping up as a down year for oil prices.
Bull case for XOM
- Geopolitical risk stays elevated, keeping a floor under crude and supporting upstream cash generation. [24]
- Exxon continues to execute on its 2030 plan—delivering cost savings, advantaged volume growth, and steady buybacks even if commodity prices are only “mid-cycle.” [25]
- Shareholder returns remain durable: dividend growth plus buybacks provide a “total yield” profile that attracts capital when growth stocks look stretched.
Bear case for XOM
- The market leans into the “2026 surplus” narrative and crude retraces, pressuring upstream earnings and investor appetite for the sector. [26]
- Refining and chemicals fail to provide enough offset if margins soften again, leaving the stock more exposed to the commodity cycle.
- Geopolitical headlines (including Russia-linked items like Sakhalin-1) remain uncertain and slow-moving, adding noise without a clear timeline for cash recovery. [27]
What it all means for investors today
On Dec. 24, 2025, Exxon Mobil stock is being pulled by two forces at once:
- Immediate, headline-driven catalysts—notably Russia’s extension of the Sakhalin-1 stake sale deadline and a crude market rebound supported by geopolitical supply concerns. [28]
- A longer-term capital-return and execution narrative—built around Exxon’s raised 2030 plan, ongoing buybacks, and dividend growth record. [29]
Analysts, on balance, still see modest upside from current levels, with consensus targets generally around $130–$132—but the range of outcomes remains wide because the biggest variable (oil prices) remains the least predictable. [30]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.investopedia.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 13. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 14. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 15. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 16. stockanalysis.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.marketbeat.com, 19. stockanalysis.com, 20. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 21. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 22. www.marketbeat.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. corporate.exxonmobil.com, 30. stockanalysis.com
