U.S. markets are closed for Christmas Day, but Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) is still very much “open for debate” in investors’ heads. The stock is ending 2025 as one of the market’s most dramatic turnaround stories—and also one of its most argument-generating. [1]
The latest flashpoint is Intel Foundry’s next-generation manufacturing node, “18A,” after reporting suggested Nvidia tested Intel’s 18A process and then stopped moving forward. That headline hit Intel shares during the shortened Christmas Eve session, reminding everyone that Intel’s bull case and bear case both orbit the same object: execution on advanced manufacturing. [2]
Intel stock recap: holiday-thin trading, real volatility
In the final U.S. session before the holiday (Wednesday, Dec. 24, 2025), Intel shares were choppy—dropping sharply early and then recovering much of the move. Data shows INTC traded between roughly $34.95 (low) and $36.18 (high) before closing around $36.15. [3]
That intraday swing matters because it captures Intel’s current market psychology in miniature:
- Bad news about Foundry traction can still knock the stock quickly.
- Buyers are also willing to step in, because 2025 has brought Intel major strategic funding and political backing.
The headline driver on Dec. 25: Nvidia’s 18A testing reportedly “stopped moving forward”
The story moving through markets on Dec. 25 centers on reporting that Nvidia recently tested Intel’s 18A manufacturing process but did not proceed further, according to sources cited by Reuters. [4]
This is a big deal for one reason: in the Foundry business, what investors want most isn’t interest—it’s volume commitments from heavyweight customers. Nvidia is as heavyweight as it gets in AI-era chip demand.
It’s also important not to over-interpret the headline. Testing advanced manufacturing nodes is normal; many evaluations don’t turn into production deals. But when the market’s narrative is “Intel Foundry is back,” any sign that a premier customer stepped back—even temporarily—gets amplified.
The counterweight: Nvidia is still financially tied to Intel
Here’s the twist that makes this story extra 2025: even as Nvidia reportedly didn’t continue with 18A testing, it has also been publicly connected to Intel via a major investment.
Reuters reported that U.S. antitrust agencies cleared Nvidia’s investment in Intel, after Nvidia previously announced a $5 billion investment in the company. [5]
Translation: the relationship between Intel and Nvidia can be “strategic and financial” without necessarily being “here’s our next flagship chip on your node.” For Intel stock, that distinction is exactly where the fight is.
Intel’s biggest structural tailwind in 2025: Washington put money on the table
Intel’s 2025 rerating has been powered less by a single product launch and more by an unusual re-framing of Intel as a strategically protected U.S. manufacturing asset.
Reuters detailed an agreement under which the U.S. would purchase a 9.9% stake in Intel for $8.9 billion (reported at $20.47 per share), tied to converting government support into equity. [6]
Later, Reuters reported Intel received $5.7 billion in cash connected to that deal, with additional terms designed to incentivize Intel maintaining control of its Foundry business (including a negotiated warrant mechanism if Intel were to reduce its Foundry ownership). [7]
In late December, Reuters also published new detail on how CEO Lip-Bu Tan navigated political headwinds and secured this government investment, helping cement Intel’s “too strategic to ignore” status in markets. [8]
For INTC shareholders, the implication is straightforward: Intel’s balance sheet and optionality look different when the U.S. government is effectively invested in the outcome.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s turnaround playbook: simplify, cut, and focus
Intel’s recent moves also show a company trying to reduce complexity—something Intel historically struggled with.
Among the notable late-2025 developments:
- Intel decided to keep its networking and communications unit after reviewing strategic options, signaling a choice to retain certain revenue streams rather than pursue asset sales at any price. [9]
- Intel announced additional investment in Malaysia for assembly and testing operations, reinforcing the importance of packaging and back-end manufacturing capacity in the modern chip supply chain. [10]
- Intel appointed a Trump economic adviser to lead government affairs, a move that underscores how central policy and federal relationships have become to Intel’s current corporate strategy. [11]
This is the messy reality of Intel’s turnaround: it’s part semiconductor engineering story, part financial restructuring, and part geopolitics.
The core debate: what 18A success really means for Intel stock
Intel’s 18A node is not just another incremental manufacturing step. Investor expectations treat it as a credibility test for Intel Foundry.
The challenge is that Intel itself (via executive commentary reported by Reuters) has acknowledged that 18A yields—how many chips come off a wafer functioning correctly—are not yet where Intel wants them for strong margins. Reuters quoted CFO David Zinsner saying yields are “not where we need them to be” for the appropriate margin level, and that “industry-acceptable” yields may not arrive until 2027. [12]
That matters because Foundry customers don’t just buy transistor technology; they buy predictability:
- predictable yields
- predictable cost
- predictable timelines
- predictable ramp capacity
If Nvidia (or any major designer) paused after testing, investors will naturally ask whether that’s about yields, cost, ecosystem tooling, capacity confidence—or simply the fact that Nvidia has many options and immense leverage.
Fundamentals check: Intel’s latest reported financial picture
In its third-quarter 2025 release, Intel reported:
- Revenue of $13.7 billion, up 3% year-over-year
- Non-GAAP EPS attributable to Intel of $0.23
- Guidance for Q4 2025 revenue of $12.8B–$13.8B
- Q4 non-GAAP EPS guidance of $0.08 (with Altera excluded following deconsolidation) [13]
This is why Intel stock can hold up even when Foundry headlines wobble: the company has shown improved execution and margin recovery versus its worst periods, and investors are pricing in the possibility that Foundry becomes a real second engine over time.
Analyst forecasts: “Hold”-ish consensus, wide target spread
As of late December 2025, the street remains cautious—even after the stock’s strong year.
Different data aggregators vary by methodology, but a few consistent patterns show up:
- Consensus stance: broadly Hold/Reduce
- Target range: wide, with lows near $20 and highs near $52
- Average targets: typically in the low-to-mid $30s, depending on the source [14]
One example of how nuanced (and sometimes contradictory) the analyst view can be: Yahoo Finance reporting noted Bank of America raised its price target to $40 from $34 while keeping an Underperform rating, essentially saying “more upside exists, but we still don’t like the risk/reward versus alternatives.” [15]
Meanwhile, Zacks-focused analysis highlighted shifting expectations: 2025 earnings estimates rising while 2026 estimates declined in recent weeks, reflecting improving near-term execution but lingering skepticism about the durability and cost of the long-term turnaround. [16]
Policy and geopolitics: a real risk factor again
Intel’s story is now tightly interwoven with U.S. industrial policy and U.S.–China tech tensions. That’s a tailwind when subsidies and “strategic asset” thinking dominate—but it can also be a headline risk amplifier.
Reuters reported that Republican lawmakers raised national security concerns after a Reuters report said Intel evaluated chipmaking equipment tied to a China-linked supplier (Intel said it was not using the tools in production and that it complies with U.S. law). [17]
For Intel stock, these issues matter because they can influence:
- what equipment Intel can qualify
- what partnerships it can pursue
- how fast it can expand certain capabilities
- whether political pressure changes the company’s strategic freedom
What investors are watching next for INTC in early 2026
With the calendar about to flip, the market’s “next questions” for Intel are fairly clear:
1) Earnings and guidance (next report timing)
Intel’s next earnings date has not been confirmed by the company in the sources above, but major market calendars are pointing to late January 2026 (often listed around Jan. 29, 2026, algorithmically estimated). [18]
2) Foundry customer traction (real names, real volumes)
The market will look for explicit customer commitments and production ramps—not just “interest” or “evaluations.”
3) 18A yields, margins, and ramp pacing
Because Intel itself has framed yield/margin improvement as a multi-year journey, each quarter’s commentary on yields becomes stock-moving. [19]
4) Continued political support vs. political constraints
The U.S. stake helps Intel’s financing story, but it also increases scrutiny and raises the stakes of any misstep. [20]
Bottom line: Intel stock is a leverage play on execution
As of Dec. 25, 2025, Intel stock sits in a rare position: it has meaningful strategic backing (including government equity and high-profile investment headlines), and it has also made progress on financial execution. [21]
But Intel is still trying to prove the hardest part of the thesis: that it can run a competitive, profitable leading-edge foundry operation—and win the kind of customers that validate the business at scale. Nvidia reportedly pausing after 18A testing is exactly the kind of reminder that keeps the stock volatile, even during a strong year.
References
1. www.investors.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.intc.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. ca.finance.yahoo.com, 16. www.nasdaq.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.nasdaq.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com
