December 25, 2025 — Apple Inc. stock (NASDAQ: AAPL) is spending Christmas Day doing what U.S. equities do every December 25: not trading at all. Both the NYSE and Nasdaq are closed for the holiday, following Wednesday’s shortened Christmas Eve session. [1]
But “markets closed” doesn’t mean “nothing changed.” On Dec. 25, fresh data out of China landed squarely in Apple’s wheelhouse, reigniting the biggest recurring AAPL debate of the past decade: Is iPhone demand re-accelerating—especially in China—enough to justify Apple’s premium valuation heading into 2026?
Below is the complete, up-to-date roundup of today’s Apple stock news, forecasts, and the most-circulated analyses dated Dec. 25, 2025, plus what investors are likely to watch next.
Apple stock price today: where AAPL stands heading into Dec. 26
With U.S. exchanges closed Thursday, the latest widely quoted AAPL pricing reflects the Dec. 24 session. Apple shares were around the $273–$274 level at the end of the holiday-shortened trading day, with after-hours quotes slightly lower by the close of the evening session. [2]
That puts Apple in the neighborhood of a $4 trillion market value range, depending on the share count used. Apple’s FY2025 10‑K shows 14,776,353,000 shares issued and outstanding as of Oct. 17, 2025; at roughly $273.81, that implies about $4.05 trillion in equity value. [3]
And the setup matters because holiday weeks often magnify narratives: light volume, loud headlines, and investors trying to decide whether January brings continuation… or a valuation reality check.
The headline driving Apple stock chatter on Dec. 25: China shipments jump 128%
The most important AAPL-specific news item dated Dec. 25, 2025 is a China demand signal that bulls have been begging for.
Reuters reported that shipments of foreign-branded phones in China (including Apple iPhones) rose 128.4% year-over-year in November, based on calculations from data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT). Total phone shipments in China were up 1.9% year-over-year to 30.16 million, with foreign-branded phones at 6.93 million units. [4]
Why the market cares:
- Apple’s China story has been a tug-of-war between domestic competition, macro softness, and periodic iPhone “supercycle” bursts.
- A 128% jump is the kind of number that instantly gets investors asking whether Apple is regaining momentum—or whether the comparison base is unusually weak and will normalize fast.
TipRanks pushed the same China-shipment angle in a Dec. 25 write-up framing it as Apple “reclaiming ground,” a sign the narrative is already spreading through retail-focused market commentary. [5]
Apple’s fundamentals in one snapshot: iPhone is still the engine, Services is the margin machine
For all the daily noise, Apple’s stock ultimately trades on two pillars:
- iPhone revenue scale, and
- Services profitability.
Apple’s FY2025 annual results (fiscal year ended Sept. 27, 2025) show:
- Total net sales:$416.161B (+6% YoY)
- iPhone net sales:$209.586B
- Services net sales:$109.158B (+14% YoY)
- Services gross margin:~75.4% (vs. Products ~36.8%) [6]
That Services line—advertising, App Store, cloud services, subscriptions, payments—does two crucial things for AAPL holders:
- It stabilizes the business when hardware cycles wobble.
- It raises the valuation ceiling because high-margin recurring revenue tends to deserve a higher multiple.
Apple also disclosed it repurchased 402 million shares for $89.3B during 2025, reinforcing the shareholder-return flywheel that has become part of Apple’s “identity” on Wall Street. [7]
The 2026 catalyst debate: Apple Intelligence, “Siri 2.0,” and the distribution strategy
The biggest forward-looking thesis around Apple stock into 2026 isn’t “Apple will outspend everyone on AI.” It’s closer to: Apple will distribute AI at planetary scale—through its installed base, its hardware/software integration, and (possibly) partnerships.
That’s exactly the framing in widely shared recent research commentary from Morgan Stanley, echoed by Investor’s Business Daily: the bank argues Apple could shift from perceived AI laggard status toward leadership in 2026, raising its price target to $315 and keeping an “overweight” stance. A key anticipated driver is a Siri re-release in spring 2026, reportedly involving advanced model capabilities (with some reporting pointing to external model partnerships). [8]
This matters for Apple stock because it links AI to the two levers investors actually pay for:
- upgrade cycles (new features that make older phones feel obsolete), and
- new Services monetization (potential tiers, bundles, or paid AI features later).
There’s also an ongoing valuation argument here. A Reuters Breakingviews column this month noted Apple trading at a premium earnings multiple versus several megacap peers—suggesting investors are rewarding Apple’s cash-generation and shareholder returns even amid AI skepticism. [9]
Regulatory overhang: the App Store remains a recurring risk to AAPL’s Services story
Apple’s Services growth is one of AAPL’s greatest strengths—and the reason regulators keep aiming at the App Store like it’s the “boss level” of platform power.
Key items still fresh in investors’ minds this week:
Italy’s antitrust fine tied to App Tracking Transparency
Italy’s competition authority (AGCM) fined Apple about €98.6 million (~$115M), alleging abuse of dominance tied to how Apple implemented App Tracking Transparency (ATT) and its impact on third-party developers and advertising. Apple has said it will appeal. [10]
Texas app-store age verification law blocked; Apple pauses related implementation
A U.S. judge blocked enforcement of Texas’ app-store age law, and Apple posted a developer update saying it would pause previously announced implementation plans while monitoring the ongoing legal process. [11]
Brazil and the global “open iOS” drumbeat
Reuters also reported this week that Apple agreed to allow third-party app stores in Brazil to settle an iOS case with a regulator—another sign that Apple’s tightly controlled distribution model is being challenged country by country. [12]
U.S. litigation risk continues
An appeals court is considering whether to revive an Apple App Store class action—yet another reminder that App Store economics aren’t just a business question; they’re a legal and political one. [13]
The investor takeaway is not “these fines will hurt Apple’s income tomorrow.” It’s that Services growth is increasingly coupled to legal outcomes, and headline risk can translate into multiple compression even when quarterly numbers look fine.
Apple stock forecasts: what Wall Street targets say about AAPL into 2026
On Dec. 25, the most-cited forecasts circulating around Apple stock fall into three buckets:
1) Consensus: modest upside, but not a “cheap” stock
A widely referenced aggregation of analyst targets shows Apple with a consensus “Buy” and an average price target around $288.62, implying only mid-single-digit upside from the mid‑$270s area. The range of targets is wide—roughly $200 (low) to $350 (high). [14]
2) The bull case: $350 targets tied to AI + iPhone cycle optimism
A prominent bullish call in circulation is Wedbush analyst Dan Ives’ view that Apple could reach $350 within about 12 months—an argument typically rooted in iPhone momentum and the idea that Apple’s AI strategy becomes clearer (and more monetizable) into 2026. [15]
3) The “valuation and execution” pushback
Several widely shared analyses today emphasize the flip side: Apple is priced like a high-confidence compounder, so missteps—AI delays, China weakness returning, or Services pressure from regulators—can matter more than usual. One example of this viewpoint circulating today is a Seeking Alpha analysis arguing Apple may not need an ever-larger AI portfolio to succeed—implicitly challenging the idea that Apple must “win” the AI arms race to justify its stock price. [16]
Put simply: forecast dispersion is high because investors disagree on what Apple’s “AI era” looks like—hardware feature layer, Services revenue layer, or both.
Next major Apple stock catalyst: earnings in late January
Apple has not published a definitive next earnings press release date on its own newsroom page as of today, but multiple market calendars are clustering around Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026 (after the close) as the expected reporting window. [17]
Between now and then, the market will likely fixate on:
- whether China demand signals like today’s CAICT shipment surge sustain into December,
- whether holiday iPhone 17 demand translates into guidance confidence, and
- how Apple frames the timing and capabilities of its next Siri/Apple Intelligence leap.
What to watch when markets reopen: three scenarios for Apple stock
When AAPL resumes trading on Friday, Dec. 26, the short-term reaction will probably hinge on how traders interpret today’s China number—signal or statistical mirage.
Scenario A: China data supports “upgrade supercycle” momentum
If investors treat the 128% shipment jump as a genuine Apple rebound in China, AAPL can ride the holiday tape higher—especially with broad U.S. equities coming off record levels into year-end seasonality. [18]
Scenario B: “Great headline, but…” skepticism dominates
If the market assumes the YoY comparison is unusually easy, attention snaps back to valuation: Apple’s premium multiple only stays comfortable if growth durability looks real.
Scenario C: Services/regulatory risk reclaims the narrative
If more App Store or privacy-policy enforcement actions surface, the conversation shifts quickly from “China is back” to “how safe is the Services take-rate long term?”—because Services is now too big to ignore. [19]
Bottom line for Dec. 25: Apple stock is back to its favorite tension—China demand vs. premium valuation
Today’s most consequential Apple stock headline is refreshingly old-school: iPhone demand signals in China, delivered via CAICT shipment data and amplified through market commentary. [20]
But Apple’s 2026 story is not single-variable. The stock is being pulled by three big forces at once:
- iPhone cycle strength (especially in China),
- AI feature credibility and timing (Siri/Apple Intelligence as a distribution platform), and
- Services durability under regulation (App Store rules, privacy, payments).
That’s why forecasts cluster into “modest upside” consensus targets, “AI unlocks $350+” bulls, and “premium valuation demands perfection” skeptics—each looking at the same company and seeing a different future.
No charts, no hype—just the strange reality of modern megacap investing: Apple is simultaneously a consumer electronics company, a software/services toll road, and an AI distribution platform in the making. [21]
References
1. www.nyse.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.sec.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.investors.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. stockanalysis.com, 15. www.tipranks.com, 16. seekingalpha.com, 17. www.nasdaq.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.sec.gov
