December 25, 2025 — Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) stock is “after the bell” in a slightly unusual sense today: U.S. markets are closed for Christmas Day, so there is no fresh closing print on Dec. 25. The last bell rang on Christmas Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 24) during a holiday-shortened session, and Wall Street reopens for a full trading day on Friday, Dec. 26. [1]
With TSLA sitting near recent highs, investors are heading into Friday’s open focused on three overlapping storylines: (1) regulatory risk and safety scrutiny, (2) an intensifying “Q4 deliveries reality check,” and (3) Tesla’s robotaxi/autonomy narrative that continues to dominate the stock’s valuation debate.
Tesla stock price after the bell: where TSLA stands heading into Friday
Because Dec. 24 was an early-close session (1:00 p.m. ET) and Dec. 25 is a full market holiday, the most relevant “after-hours” reference point is the post-market trading that followed the Dec. 24 close. [2]
- TSLA ended the regular session at about $484.26 at the early close. [3]
- In extended trading, TSLA was around $485.40, essentially flat and consistent with thin holiday liquidity. [4]
That relatively muted post-market move matters because it suggests the market did not re-price Tesla dramatically heading into the holiday break—despite a steady stream of headlines on safety probes, delivery expectations, and autonomy.
Why there’s no “new” Tesla close today (and why that matters for Friday’s open)
If you’re tracking TSLA on Christmas Day, remember the calendar:
- U.S. exchanges are closed on Dec. 25 for Christmas. [5]
- The prior session (Dec. 24) was shortened, and Dec. 26 trades a full day, even after a federal closure order targeted government operations (exchanges stuck to their trading calendar). [6]
- Standard U.S. equity market hours return Friday: 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with pre-market and after-hours available through many brokers. [7]
For TSLA specifically, that means any accumulated newsflow from Christmas Day gets “priced” primarily at Friday’s open—often when spreads tighten and liquidity returns. But holiday week trading can also be choppy: fewer participants, larger orders moving prices, and quick reactions to headlines.
Today’s biggest overhang: NHTSA opens a Model 3 door-release investigation
One of the most concrete, near-term risk items hanging over Tesla into Friday is U.S. safety scrutiny.
Reuters reports that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) opened a defect investigation into Model 3 emergency door release controls, covering an estimated 179,071 Model Year 2022 vehicles. The probe followed a petition alleging the mechanical release is “hidden, unlabeled and not intuitive” in emergencies. [8]
Key nuance for investors:
- An investigation does not automatically mean a recall—but it’s the start of a process that can lead to further action if defects are confirmed. [9]
- The issue taps into a broader narrative risk for Tesla: safety design debates, litigation headlines, and regulator attention can amplify volatility even when the underlying financial impact is uncertain. [10]
What to watch Friday: any follow-up statements from Tesla, NHTSA updates, or other regulators referencing door latch/egress safety. Headline risk can be especially powerful in thin holiday trading.
Q4 delivery countdown: analysts warn Tesla may miss consensus — and the market may care less than you think
The next major, scheduled Tesla catalyst is not earnings—it’s vehicle deliveries.
Multiple analyst channels now expect Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries to come in below what many investors had been modeling:
- New Street Research: 415,000 to 435,000 deliveries vs. ~440,000 consensus. [11]
- UBS (Joseph Spak): ~415,000, described as below Visible Alpha consensus and tied to weaker U.S. demand after subsidy effects faded. [12]
- Several notes frame the issue as a post-subsidy demand hangover in the U.S., with Q3 having pulled demand forward. [13]
Most importantly for the calendar: analysts cited by Investing.com and TipRanks expect Tesla to report Q4 deliveries on January 2, 2026. [14]
The key twist: “Does the market no longer care about deliveries?”
This is the real crux for TSLA heading into Friday.
Some analysts explicitly ask whether Tesla’s stock is now trading primarily on robotaxi and Optimus optionality—meaning deliveries could disappoint without breaking the bull case, at least in the short run. [15]
That tension—weakening auto fundamentals vs. AI/autonomy valuation—is why Tesla can simultaneously face downbeat delivery forecasts and see price targets rise.
Autonomy and robotaxi headlines: Tesla keeps feeding the “tech platform” narrative
Tesla’s stock in late 2025 remains heavily influenced by whether investors view the company as:
- a cyclical automaker with margins and unit volumes under pressure, or
- a software/AI platform with a potentially enormous autonomy payoff.
Several developments keep the autonomy story front-and-center:
1) Robotaxi service and app presence
Tesla itself states that autonomous Robotaxi rides are currently being offered in Austin, Texas, and directs users to download the Robotaxi app (with support documentation noting availability details such as platform access). [16]
2) Testing without a safety driver in Austin
TechCrunch reported Tesla started testing robotaxis in Austin with no safety driver onboard, a meaningful step if it scales—though still early and subject to regulatory and operational constraints. [17]
3) A 2026 “robotaxi year” narrative (with regulatory caveats)
Motley Fool’s analysis published today frames 2026 as a critical year for Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions and also highlights an investor risk: even with production plans (Cybercab/robotaxi focus), regulatory approvals and real-world rollout may take longer than bulls expect. [18]
Why this matters for Friday: when TSLA trades near psychological milestones (like $500), even modest autonomy headlines—videos, app updates, local-market expansions—can swing sentiment quickly.
Another regulatory risk still in play: California’s Autopilot/FSD marketing dispute
Beyond NHTSA, Tesla faces ongoing regulatory friction over how it markets driver assistance.
Reuters reported that California’s DMV put on hold a sales suspension order, creating a window for Tesla to address concerns tied to “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” branding and related marketing claims. [19]
While the key dates here aren’t “today-only,” the story remains relevant because:
- California is a major EV market, and
- Tesla’s autonomy narrative depends not just on technology—but also on regulators’ tolerance for branding, claims, and deployment models.
Bottom line: on Friday, TSLA’s autonomy upside and its autonomy-related regulatory scrutiny are part of the same trade.
Analyst forecasts and price targets: Wall Street is split — widely
If you want a snapshot of why Tesla stock can be both beloved and controversial, look at the dispersion in targets and ratings:
- UBS reiterated a Sell rating with a $247 target (bear case framed around valuation and delivery pressure). [20]
- Morgan Stanley was cited with a Hold and $425 target in a broader debate about how much AI upside is already priced in. [21]
- Canaccord Genuity reiterated a Buy and raised its target to $551 even while trimming delivery expectations. [22]
- Wedbush reiterated an Outperform with a $600 price target, framing 2026 as pivotal for robotaxi expansion. [23]
- A Dec. 25 summary of note flow also references Deutsche Bank lifting its target to $500 from $470, and Truist raising to $444, while Goldman Sachs reiterated Neutral at $400 in mid-December. [24]
That spread is not a footnote—it’s the story. Tesla is a stock where reasonable analysts disagree not by a few percent, but by hundreds of dollars per share, largely because they value autonomy/robotics optionality very differently.
What to know before the market opens Friday, Dec. 26
Here’s a practical checklist for TSLA watchers heading into the next session.
1) Expect holiday-thin trading conditions
Dec. 26 is often part of the “Santa Claus rally” discussion. MarketWatch notes that Dec. 26 has historically been a consistently positive day for the S&P 500, though seasonal patterns are not guarantees. [25]
Thin liquidity can exaggerate moves—up or down—especially in high-beta names like Tesla.
2) Track broad market mood: risk-on helps TSLA
Reuters reported U.S. stocks closed at record highs on Dec. 24 in the holiday-shortened session, supporting a “Santa rally” narrative into year-end. [26]
If Friday opens with a strong risk-on tone (mega-cap tech leadership, upbeat rate-cut expectations), TSLA often benefits.
3) Tesla-specific headline watchlist
Going into Friday’s open, these are the news levers most likely to move TSLA quickly:
- NHTSA Model 3 door-release investigation developments or Tesla response. [27]
- California DMV marketing dispute updates (compliance steps, appeals, statements). [28]
- Robotaxi/FSD signals: app changes, Austin operational expansion, or credible evidence of scale-up beyond limited pilots. [29]
- Delivery “whispers”: any credible channel checks ahead of the expected Jan. 2 delivery report. [30]
4) Key levels traders are watching (because they shape headlines)
Even fundamental investors should care about headline-friendly price levels in Tesla:
- $500 is the psychological magnet.
- Tesla’s recent trading range includes a 52-week high near $498.83 (as cited in market data summaries). [31]
- Investors.com recently described TSLA in a technical buy zone with a buy point near $474.07 and an upper buy-zone reference around $497.77—levels that traders frequently cite in fast-moving markets. [32]
If TSLA pushes through $500 early Friday, expect a wave of “breakout” coverage; if it rejects hard at that area, expect “valuation and deliveries” narratives to re-assert themselves.
The takeaway for TSLA into Friday’s open
Tesla stock heads into Friday, Dec. 26, 2025 near $485, with the market closed today and holiday conditions likely to persist into the open. [33]
The bull case continues to lean heavily on robotaxi/autonomy (and, increasingly, robotics), while the bear case points to delivery pressure and regulatory scrutiny that could eventually force the stock to trade more like an automaker again. [34]
For Friday morning, the “need to know” is simple:
- No new close happened today (holiday). [35]
- Regulatory headlines (NHTSA and California) are real and can move the stock quickly. [36]
- Q4 deliveries (expected Jan. 2) are the next major scheduled catalyst—and estimates are drifting lower. [37]
- $500 is the near-term battleground that could shape the tone of coverage and trading into year-end. [38]
This article is for informational purposes and reflects publicly reported news and analyst commentary as of Dec. 25, 2025—not investment advice.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.nasdaq.com, 3. stockanalysis.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.nasdaq.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.nasdaq.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investing.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.tesla.com, 17. techcrunch.com, 18. www.fool.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.tipranks.com, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.tipranks.com, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.insidermonkey.com, 25. www.marketwatch.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.tesla.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.marketbeat.com, 32. www.investors.com, 33. stockanalysis.com, 34. www.investing.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.investors.com
