Wilmar International Limited (SGX: F34) has spent 2025 doing what big, global agribusinesses often do: quietly moving massive volumes of essential goods—while occasionally getting dragged into very loud legal and governance headlines. As of Friday, December 26, 2025, the stock is trading in a tight range, with investors weighing a fairly classic tug-of-war: core operating resilience and Asia growth optionality versus headline risk from court cases and regulatory scrutiny.
Below is a full, up-to-date roundup of the most relevant news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping Wilmar’s share narrative as of 26.12.2025, with context on what matters for 2026.
Wilmar stock price today: steady trading, but the “why” matters more than the “what”
On Dec 26, 2025, SGX market data showed Wilmar Intl around S$3.10, up S$0.01, at mid-day. [1]
Other market data services put the stock around S$3.09 for the session, with an intraday range roughly S$3.08–S$3.12 and a 52-week range of about S$2.78–S$3.38—a reminder that the stock has recovered from its late-September legal shock but hasn’t re-rated dramatically higher. [2]
If you’re looking for the story inside that calm price action: the market appears to be treating Wilmar as a fundamentals-driven, commodity-exposed cashflow business—but one that currently carries real “event risk” from court decisions.
The biggest overhang: Indonesia Supreme Court ruling turns a “deposit” into a real hit
The single most material 2025 headline for Wilmar shareholders came from Indonesia’s courts.
In an SGX announcement dated September 26, 2025, Wilmar disclosed that Indonesia’s Supreme Court verdict (posted publicly) stated that five Wilmar subsidiaries were each sentenced to a fine of IDR 1 billion and required to pay total compensation for “State losses” of IDR 11,880,351,801,176 (about US$708.9 million). The announcement also breaks down the compensation components (profits, financial losses to the state, and broader business/household sector losses). [3]
Crucially for investors, Wilmar also stated that the total amount had already been deposited with Indonesia’s Attorney General’s Office, and would be subsequently deposited into the State Treasury—meaning this wasn’t just “paper risk.” [4]
Wilmar said it may apply for judicial review (a further legal avenue), while also warning the penalty would drive the group to expect a net loss for the quarter ended 30 September 2025, though it still expected to be profitable for the full year ending 31 December 2025. [5]
How we got here (why the market cared so much)
Reuters reporting across 2025 outlined the arc:
- April 2025: Indonesia arrested judges tied to a ruling that cleared palm oil firms (including Wilmar) in the export-permit corruption case, after allegations of bribery. [6]
- June 2025: Indonesia’s Attorney General’s Office said it had seized 11.8 trillion rupiah tied to the case, after Wilmar returned the money and authorities treated it as evidence and part of the proceedings. [7]
- September 2025: Reuters reported the Supreme Court overturned earlier acquittals, and that the “security deposit” would be treated as part of the fine transferred to the state treasury. [8]
For investors reading this on Dec 26, 2025, the practical takeaway is simple but heavy: the Indonesia matter has already been financially crystallized in a major way, even if legal processes continue.
A second legal front: China contract-fraud verdict and a pending appeal
Just as the Indonesia story began to settle into the numbers, a fresh—and more complex—headline emerged from China.
In an SGX-linked announcement dated Nov 19, 2025, Wilmar said its indirect 89.99%-owned China-listed subsidiary Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings (YKA) disclosed a first-instance judgment involving Yihai (Guangzhou) Oils & Grains Industries (“Guangzhou Yihai”). According to the judgment summarized by Wilmar:
- Guangzhou Yihai was found guilty of contractual fraud and fined RMB 1 million (≈ US$141k)
- Guangzhou Yihai and another party were ordered to jointly bear RMB 1.88 billion of losses (≈ US$264.5 million) incurred by a state-owned company
- A former general manager was sentenced to 19 years imprisonment and fined RMB 2.8 million, with illicit gains to be confiscated [9]
Wilmar also emphasized that Guangzhou Yihai intends to appeal, and that because the case would be appealed, the judgment does not take effect yet, so the fine isn’t payable pending the appeal outcome—while the overall financial impact remains uncertain. [10]
A later filing indicated the subsidiary had formally lodged an appeal, and a hearing date had not been set at that time. [11]
Singapore media also reported on the case and the liability figure, underscoring that this is now a mainstream investor concern, not just a footnote. [12]
Why investors should treat this differently from the Indonesia case
The Indonesia matter has a (painful) clarity: money out the door, earnings impacted, story moves to “how much is left?”
The China case is structurally messier:
- It involves a first-instance ruling,
- an appeal in progress,
- and management arguing about process, evidence, and factual findings (as reflected in an investor Q&A document linked via SGX materials). [13]
Markets hate uncertainty more than they hate bad news—so even if the eventual financial impact is smaller than Indonesia’s, the “unknowns” can still pressure valuation multiples.
Governance response: risk and sustainability committees reshaped in December 2025
In the shadow of legal headlines, Wilmar also moved on the corporate governance front.
A Dec 1, 2025 SGX announcement stated that founder-chairman Kuok Khoon Hong would cease to be a member of the Risk Management Committee and Board Sustainability Committee, and that new appointments would take effect—explicitly framed as aligning with good governance practice for board-level risk committees to comprise entirely independent directors. [14]
This matters because governance changes often function as a market signal: not a guarantee of future outcomes, but an attempt to reduce perceived “control risk” and rebuild confidence after compliance shocks.
India growth story: AWL Agri Business stake increase and what it could mean for 2026
While legal headlines dominated the downside narrative, India has been the more constructive “strategic upside” theme around Wilmar in 2025.
Reuters reported that on Nov 11, 2025, Wilmar agreed to buy a 13% stake in India’s AWL Agri Business (previously associated with the Adani-Wilmar joint venture structure) for about 46.5 billion rupees (≈ US$529 million). [15]
By mid-to-late November, Wilmar also disclosed completion of the 13% acquisition via SGX-linked materials. [16]
And stepping back: Reuters also reported earlier that Adani’s exit from the JV structure involved Wilmar’s subsidiary potentially increasing its holding substantially, and Wilmar expected a gain of US$1.23 billion from the deal (context: deal structure and accounting treatment matter here, and “expected gain” is not the same as “cash profit”). [17]
India’s competition regulator had also cleared Wilmar’s proposal to acquire up to 20% stake in AWL, according to The Economic Times. [18]
Why this matters for the stock: India remains one of the most important consumption engines for edible oils and packaged staples. If Wilmar can convert ownership restructuring into cleaner governance and steadier earnings visibility from that platform, it becomes a plausible 2026–2027 rerating catalyst.
What the operating business is doing: 1H 2025 results show resilience, but margin caution
For all the drama, Wilmar is still an operating machine spanning processing, merchandising, and consumer products across Asia and beyond. The business’s cyclicality (and profitability) is heavily tied to commodity spreads and refining margins.
In Wilmar’s first-half 2025 results coverage, Reuters reported:
- Core net profit:US$583.7 million for the six months ended June 30, 2025 (down from US$606.3 million a year earlier)
- Revenue: up 6.3% to US$32.89 billion
- A key pressure point: profit before tax in the feed & industrial products segment (including tropical oils refining) was US$381.6 million, down 29% year-on-year
- Wilmar flagged uncertainty around refining margins in its tropical oil business as a continuing issue [19]
Wilmar also declared an interim dividend of S$0.04 per share for FY2025, lower than the prior year’s interim dividend cited in the same Reuters report. [20]
The SGX dividend filing provides the payment mechanics and dates for that interim distribution. [21]
Analyst forecasts and targets: modest upside on paper, but conviction varies
As of late December 2025, “street” views on Wilmar look more like cautious normalization than euphoric recovery.
A few snapshots from widely used market-tracking sources:
- One compiled set of broker targets (Singapore market coverage) showed a range roughly around S$3.00 to S$3.58, with a median around S$3.25—implying mid-single-digit upside from ~S$3.09–S$3.10 levels. [22]
- Investing.com’s consensus page similarly frames the stock as having limited upside versus average targets (i.e., not a high-conviction “double from here” idea). [23]
- TipRanks’ summary view showed an “Hold”-leaning consensus with an average target close to the current price (again: the market is not screaming “mispriced by 50%”). [24]
Meanwhile, the tone of research has clearly evolved through the Indonesia ruling period. For example, a Business Times “brokers’ take” piece described a downgrade after the corruption verdict, explicitly linking earnings damage to forfeiture/seizure dynamics. [25]
A tracker of broker report headlines also shows how narratives shifted toward “FY26 improvement” framing after the worst legal headline passed, while still flagging regulatory scrutiny earlier in the cycle. [26]
A useful way to read the analyst split
Most forecasts effectively hinge on three questions:
- Is the big Indonesia hit “one-and-done,” or does it signal repeatable regulatory/compliance risk? [27]
- Does the China case fade on appeal—or become another long-running valuation anchor? [28]
- Can India (AWL) ownership restructuring and consumer growth translate into cleaner, higher-quality earnings? [29]
If you believe (1) and (2) de-escalate and (3) compounds, Wilmar looks like a “boring business that deserves a less boring multiple.” If you don’t, it stays in the “cheap for a reason” bucket.
What to watch next: the catalysts that could move Wilmar stock into 2026
As of Dec 26, 2025, the likely near-term swing factors for SGX:F34 are:
- Earnings visibility: Market calendars indicate Wilmar’s next results are expected around mid-February 2026 (dates can shift, but it’s the next major scheduled information event). [30]
- Indonesia legal next steps: Any movement on judicial review attempts, enforcement interpretation, or additional regulatory actions. [31]
- China appeal timeline: Investors will watch for court scheduling and whether the liability remains “uncertain” or becomes quantifiable. [32]
- India integration / ownership clarity: Follow-through on AWL stake changes and strategic direction after the transaction cycle. [33]
- Commodity margin environment: Especially tropical oil refining margins, which Wilmar itself highlighted as an uncertainty. [34]
Bottom line on Wilmar International stock as of Dec 26, 2025
Wilmar International’s stock is ending 2025 in a deceptively calm place—around S$3.09–S$3.10—but the calm is not the same as clarity. [35]
On one hand, Wilmar continues to demonstrate the traits that make agribusiness giants investable: scale, defensiveness (food demand doesn’t vanish), and operating leverage when commodity spreads cooperate. [36]
On the other hand, 2025 has delivered a sharp reminder that legal and governance risks can become financial risks, not just reputational ones—first in Indonesia with a ~US$709 million compensation figure, and now with uncertainty in China pending appeal. [37]
For investors, the 2026 question isn’t “can Wilmar sell more edible oil?” It’s whether the company can convince the market that 2025’s legal shocks were exceptional, not structural—and that future earnings deserve to be valued for operations, not court calendars.
References
1. www.sgx.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. links.sgx.com, 4. links.sgx.com, 5. links.sgx.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. links.sgx.com, 10. links.sgx.com, 11. www.wilmar-international.com, 12. www.straitstimes.com, 13. links.sgx.com, 14. links.sgx.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. links.sgx.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. m.economictimes.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.wilmar-international.com, 22. sginvestors.io, 23. www.investing.com, 24. www.tipranks.com, 25. www.businesstimes.com.sg, 26. sginvestors.io, 27. links.sgx.com, 28. links.sgx.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.tradingview.com, 31. links.sgx.com, 32. www.wilmar-international.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.reuters.com, 35. www.sgx.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. links.sgx.com
