NEW YORK — 26.12.2025 (10:14 a.m. EST) — Global stock markets were broadly steady to modestly higher on Friday as investors returned from the Christmas holiday to a session defined by thin liquidity, year-end positioning, and a continued focus on the 2026 interest-rate path.
In early U.S. trading, the S&P 500 hovered near 6,939 (+0.1%), the Nasdaq Composite near 23,646 (+0.1%), and the Dow near 48,736 (little changed). In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 0.7%, while mainland China edged higher. Meanwhile, many major European cash markets remained shut for Boxing Day/St Stephen’s Day, leaving global price action heavily concentrated in the U.S. and parts of Asia. [1]
Wall Street today: stocks flat-to-firmer as the S&P 500 flirts with 7,000
U.S. equities opened close to flat and held near record territory as investors balanced optimism about rate cuts and earnings against the reality of holiday-thinned volumes.
At the open, Reuters reported the S&P 500 around 6,938 (+0.09%), the Dow near 48,724, and the Nasdaq around 23,645, underscoring how narrow the day’s early moves were. [2]
AP’s early read on the session echoed the same theme: modest gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, with “Big Tech” support (AP specifically cited Nvidia) helping keep sentiment constructive even as trading volumes were expected to remain light. [3]
Why the market is calm — and why it still matters
Two forces are shaping the post-Christmas tone:
- The “7,000 watch” on the S&P 500. With the benchmark already near record highs, investors are watching whether the index can push decisively through the psychologically significant 7,000 level as 2025 concludes. Reuters said the S&P 500 was about 1% away from 7,000 after a record close ahead of the holiday. [4]
- The “how many cuts, how soon?” debate for 2026. Traders have been positioning for additional Federal Reserve easing in 2026, and the day’s low-volatility drift reflects how widely that expectation has permeated the market narrative. Reuters noted the Fed has already reduced its benchmark rate by 75 basis points across its last three meetings of 2025, bringing the policy rate to 3.50%–3.75%. [5]
Asia markets: Japan hits fresh milestones while China grinds higher
Asian equities delivered much of the day’s directional momentum.
Reuters reported that Japan’s Topix hit a record high, while South Korea’s benchmark rose again, reinforcing an already standout annual performance. South Korea’s market was up roughly 72% for the year, according to Reuters, making it the best-performing major stock market in 2025. [6]
China’s CSI300 was modestly higher and on track for an ~18% annual gain, Reuters said. [7]
AP added that Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed about 0.7% and noted that several regional markets—including Hong Kong and Australia—were closed. [8]
Japan’s bond market signals: a quieter but important macro backdrop
Beyond equities, Japan’s policy and funding signals stayed in view. Reuters reported that Japan plans to issue the fewest “super-long” government bonds in 17 years (about 17.4 trillion yen), a move framed as sensitivity to the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields amid fiscal concerns. [9]
For global equity investors, the takeaway is less about one issuance number and more about the broader theme: rates and debt dynamics remain central, even in a year-end rally.
Europe today: cash markets largely closed, keeping liquidity unusually thin
A major reason global trading felt muted: Europe was mostly shut.
Reuters’ overnight global markets wrap said that most of Europe was closed on Friday, with liquidity expected to be thin. [10]
Exchange calendars reinforce the point:
- Euronext cash markets (including Paris, Amsterdam, Brussels, Milan and others) list Friday 26 December 2025 as closed for St Stephen’s Day / Boxing Day. [11]
- Germany (Xetra/Frankfurt) was closed 24–26 December per Deutsche Börse’s end-of-year schedule. [12]
- London Stock Exchange lists Friday 26 December 2025 (Boxing Day) as a non-trading day. [13]
With much of Europe offline, global “risk appetite” was largely expressed through U.S. equities, select Asian markets, and cross-asset trading (currencies, commodities, rates).
Commodities and currencies: precious metals surge, oil steadies, and the dollar stays soft
Even as stocks moved only incrementally, cross-asset markets carried stronger narratives.
Gold and silver steal the spotlight
Precious metals remained on a strong run:
- Reuters said gold hit record levels and silver surged to a record as well, highlighting ongoing demand and a bullish narrative heading into 2026. [14]
- AP reported gold around $4,541/oz and silver near $74.90/oz, briefly topping $75 intraday. [15]
- Reuters’ global market data showed gold around $4,539/oz in the late morning U.S. window. [16]
Reuters also attributed support to factors including central bank buying and inflows into gold-backed ETFs, with investors focused on currency and debt concerns. [17]
Oil: steady today, but the bigger story is the 2025 slide and 2026 surplus fears
Oil prices were comparatively stable in the thin session. Reuters reported Brent around $62.22 and WTI around $58.41, with traders weighing geopolitical supply risks—including U.S. actions in Nigeria and increased pressure on Venezuelan oil. [18]
But Reuters also emphasized the longer arc: Brent and WTI were on pace for their steepest annual declines since 2020, down ~17% and ~19% versus the final close of 2024, amid concerns about a potential glut into next year. [19]
That “2026 surplus narrative” is also influencing oil-sensitive equity regions. Reuters quoted a Gulf-market strategist warning that surplus fears could weigh on sentiment in coming months even after this week’s oil rebound offered temporary support. [20]
FX and rates: dollar weakness remains in focus
The U.S. dollar stayed on the back foot in late-December trading, a move investors are linking to the U.S. rate outlook.
Reuters said traders were pricing at least two Fed cuts in 2026 but did not expect the Fed to move before June, while the dollar index was heading for its weakest weekly performance since July. [21]
By mid-morning in the U.S., Reuters market data showed:
- EUR/USD near 1.1787
- U.S. 10-year yield around 4.134% [22]
What analysts are watching next week: Fed minutes, year-end positioning, and “rotation” signals
While Friday’s tape looked quiet, the market’s next catalysts are already queued up.
Reuters’ “Week Ahead” outlook highlighted three themes likely to drive headlines into the final sessions of 2025:
- Fed minutes: Minutes from the December 9–10 meeting are due Tuesday next week, potentially shedding light on how policymakers debated the pace of future cuts. [23]
- Year-end portfolio adjustments: Rebalancing and tax-related positioning can amplify moves at a time when thin trading can exaggerate price swings. [24]
- Market rotation beyond tech: Reuters noted that after a period of turbulence tied to AI spending worries, investors have been watching whether gains broaden into areas like financials, transports, healthcare, and small caps. [25]
Regional check-in: India and the Gulf reflect profit-taking and oil-linked sentiment
Even in a holiday window, several regional markets delivered notable, localized narratives.
India: profit-taking as the year winds down
Reuters reported India’s Nifty 50 and Sensex trimmed weekly gains on profit-taking, with thin year-end trade. Both were still up on the week, and Reuters pointed to stock-specific moves including a jump in Shriram Finance following news tied to a strategic stake purchase. [26]
Gulf markets: slipping on the day, higher on the week
In the UAE, Reuters said Abu Dhabi ended flat while Dubai dipped modestly, though both markets finished the week higher, supported in part by the rebound in oil prices. [27]
A historical footnote investors are debating: is Dec. 26 a “tailwind” day?
One reason some traders remain reluctant to fade the market in late December: historical seasonality.
A MarketWatch analysis noted that the session one day after Christmas has historically been a strong day for the S&P 500, with average gains and a high frequency of positive closes over the long term (with even stronger average results in the post-2020 period). [28]
Seasonality, of course, is not a forecast—but it helps explain why, even in a quiet tape, many investors treat the final week of the year as a period where incremental upside can persist unless a clear shock hits liquidity-thin markets.
Bottom line at 10:14 a.m. EST
Global equities were largely steady-to-higher on 26.12.2025, with U.S. indexes hovering near record levels and Asia providing most of the day’s upward bias, while Europe’s Boxing Day closures kept liquidity constrained.
The near-term market playbook remains consistent:
- Watch the Fed’s 2026 rate path (and next week’s minutes),
- Monitor whether leadership broadens beyond megacap tech,
- And track cross-asset signals—especially gold’s record run and oil’s tug-of-war between geopolitics and surplus fears. [29]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. apnews.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. apnews.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.euronext.com, 12. live.deutsche-boerse.com, 13. www.londonstockexchange.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. apnews.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.marketwatch.com, 29. www.reuters.com
