New York — Friday, December 26, 2025 (11:49 a.m. ET)
Tesla, Inc. stock is trading in the middle of a thin, post-holiday U.S. session with investors balancing two competing narratives: near-term pressure from auto demand and regulatory scrutiny, versus a still-powerful “Tesla-as-AI/robotics” thesis that many bulls believe will define 2026.
As of the latest available trading update late morning in New York, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is at about $477.66, down roughly 1.6% on the day, after opening above $485 and trading in a $474–$489 range.
Tesla stock price check: where TSLA stands right now
TSLA’s pullback is notable because the broader large-cap tape is mixed-to-flat, a common pattern in late-December trading where idiosyncratic headlines can move single names more than macro does.
Here’s what the market backdrop looks like around the same time:
- SPY (S&P 500 ETF): roughly flat on the day
- QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF): slightly higher
- DIA (Dow ETF): slightly lower
- IWM (Russell 2000 ETF): down more than large caps
That “quiet index, louder single-stock” feel also matches how major outlets are describing December 26 trading: subdued volumes, stocks hovering near record highs, and many institutional desks already in year-end mode. [1]
Why Tesla stock is moving: the 3 themes investors are trading today
1) Fresh NHTSA scrutiny hits a market already sensitive to Tesla safety headlines
The most immediate pressure point is a new federal safety development.
Reuters reports that the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has opened a defect investigation into approximately 179,071 model-year 2022 Tesla Model 3 vehicles following a petition alleging the mechanical emergency door release is “hidden, unlabeled” and difficult to locate in emergencies. [2]
Key details investors are focusing on:
- The probe is tied to the visibility/identification and accessibility of manual releases, especially because Teslas primarily use electronic latches. [3]
- A defect petition review does not mean a recall is happening now, but it can lead to further regulatory action if a safety defect is found. [4]
This matters to TSLA traders because safety investigations can create short, sharp volatility—especially in a thin market. It also lands in a year where regulators have kept pressure on Tesla’s driver-assistance ecosystem more broadly. For example, Reuters previously reported an NHTSA investigation into about 2.88 million Tesla vehicles equipped with Full Self-Driving (FSD) tied to reports of traffic-safety violations and crashes. [5]
Investor takeaway: Even if today’s door-release probe is separate from autonomy, the market often “buckets” Tesla headlines into a single regulatory overhang—making it harder for the stock to rally on optimism alone.
2) California’s Autopilot/FSD marketing dispute remains a live legal/regulatory overhang
Tesla is also contending with regulatory action at the state level in its biggest U.S. market.
Reuters reports California’s DMV deferred enforcement of a 30-day suspension order, giving Tesla time to address accusations that its marketing and terminology overstated self-driving capability. The DMV stayed Tesla’s sales license suspension for 90 days and its manufacturing license indefinitely, according to DMV Director Steve Gordon. [6]
Notable points from the Reuters reporting:
- The DMV’s underlying dispute centers on whether names like “Autopilot” and “Full Self-Driving” mislead consumers into thinking the cars can operate autonomously. [7]
- To avoid suspension, the DMV said Tesla could submit a statement confirming it has stopped using “Autopilot” or confirming the cars can operate without active monitoring by a human—a significant framing because Tesla has long emphasized supervision requirements. [8]
- Tesla can appeal or seek court review by February 14, putting an actual calendar date on the risk. [9]
Investor takeaway: This is not just a headline risk; it’s a timeline risk. If you’re underwriting the “robotaxi-first” thesis, marketing language and regulatory definitions matter—because they can influence how quickly autonomy features expand or how they must be presented to consumers.
3) Robotaxi momentum is the upside catalyst bulls are still paying for
If the regulatory news is the weight, robotaxis remain the counterweight.
Several Reuters reports over the last month illustrate why many investors still treat Tesla as an autonomy and platform story:
- Tesla launched a limited robotaxi service in Austin in June using modified Model Y vehicles, initially geo-fenced and with a human safety monitor in the passenger seat. [10]
- In late November, Elon Musk said the Austin robotaxi fleet would roughly double in December and reiterated expectations for broader expansion—while noting safety monitors were still required in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area at the time. [11]
- In mid-December, Musk posted that testing was underway with “no occupants in the car,” and Reuters quoted Morningstar senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein saying the progress aligned with prior expectations and “the market is cheering the progress.” [12]
That said, Reuters has also emphasized a key tension: scaling from a small, closely monitored pilot to a large commercial fleet is an entirely different challenge. In a deep-dive analysis, Reuters noted experts cautioned against assuming a rapid robotaxi rollout, pointing out that Waymo took years to build a fleet of about 1,500 vehicles in select cities. [13]
Investor takeaway: Tesla’s upside catalysts are real—and the market clearly responds when Tesla shows incremental autonomy progress. But credible analysts and industry experts continue to flag that the “last mile” (safe scaling, regulatory acceptance, and operational reliability) is the hardest part.
The near-term fundamental question: do deliveries still matter to TSLA traders?
A growing piece of the Tesla stock debate into year-end is whether vehicle deliveries are still the primary driver—or whether robotaxis and Optimus have taken the wheel.
On that point, recent analyst commentary is blunt.
An Investing.com report highlights:
- New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu expects Q4 deliveries of 415,000–435,000, below a consensus estimate around 440,000, describing a U.S. demand “air-pocket” after earlier subsidy-driven strength. [14]
- UBS analyst Joseph Spak forecasts 415,000 deliveries (around 5% below Visible Alpha consensus) and posed the question: does the market no longer care about deliveries and only robotaxi and Optimus developments? [15]
- Spak also expects Tesla to report fourth-quarter deliveries on January 2. [16]
Investor takeaway: Deliveries still matter—especially to earnings power in the near term—but the market may be discounting “one more soft quarter” if it believes autonomy/robotics milestones are compounding.
Wall Street forecasts & price targets: a wide—and telling—range
Tesla’s analyst landscape is unusually polarized, and recent notes show why: some firms are explicitly saying the “non-auto” upside is increasingly priced in, while others are sticking with big targets tied to autonomy and robotics.
The “priced in / valuation caution” camp
Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco downgraded Tesla to Equal Weight (hold) and lifted the price target to $425, while warning that the stock’s valuation leaves little margin for error and that the auto business outlook has softened (including reduced volume expectations). [17]
The “stay bullish, autonomy optionality is the story” camp
- RBC’s Tom Narayan reiterated a Buy rating with a $500 price target (target unchanged), according to a MarketScreener note summary. [18]
- Wedbush’s Dan Ives remains one of Tesla’s most visible bulls. In a 2026 outlook note reported by Business Insider, he predicted Tesla will successfully launch robotaxis in over 30 cities in 2026 and begin scaling volume production of Cybercabs, with a base-case expectation for shares to rise and an even more aggressive bull-case scenario. [19]
A long-term “moonshot” forecast that continues to circulate
Reuters has also reported that ARK Investment Management projects Tesla stock could reach $2,600 by 2029, driven predominantly by robotaxis in its model. [20]
Investor takeaway: For TSLA, price targets are often less about next quarter’s margins and more about the probability-weighted value of autonomy and robotics. That’s exactly why regulatory headlines around FSD/robotaxi can swing sentiment so quickly.
What to watch next: Tesla’s key catalysts and dates into early 2026
Q4 deliveries: watch the first week of January closely
Based on recent analyst expectations, investors are watching for Tesla’s Q4 deliveries release around January 2, 2026. [21]
It’s also consistent with Tesla’s historical pattern of releasing quarterly production and deliveries very soon after quarter-end (for example, Tesla posted its Q3 2025 production/deliveries press release on October 2, 2025). [22]
Q4 earnings date: still not “official” everywhere—monitor Tesla IR
Market calendars frequently differ on “estimated” earnings dates until the company confirms. Current listings include:
- Yahoo Finance’s earnings calendar shows Tesla on January 28, 2026 (4 p.m. EST) [23]
- Wall Street Horizon lists January 28, 2026 after market (unconfirmed) [24]
- Nasdaq’s earnings page has also shown an estimate (which can change). [25]
The cleanest approach for investors is simple: watch Tesla’s Investor Relations site for an official confirmation as the date approaches. [26]
Robotaxi progress: look for concrete “operational” updates, not just timelines
Investors will likely react most to measurable changes: broader geofencing, safety-monitor removal at scale, permitting, or expansion beyond the current footprint Reuters describes (Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area). [27]
California DMV timeline: a defined deadline
The DMV process has a real near-term milestone: Tesla can appeal or seek court review by February 14. [28]
Is the stock market open right now? Yes—and here’s what that means for TSLA traders today
At 11:49 a.m. ET on December 26, the U.S. equity market is in its core session (9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET). [29]
Because it’s the day after a major holiday, investors should keep a few market-structure realities in mind:
- Liquidity can be thinner, meaning headlines may produce outsized moves. [30]
- Seasonality is in focus. Reuters notes the “Santa Claus rally” window (last five trading days of the year + first two of January) is widely tracked, though it’s not a guarantee. [31]
If you’re investing (not day-trading) Tesla, here’s the practical checklist before the next big TSLA catalyst
Even with the market open today, many investors are positioning for the next information events more than the next 30 minutes of price action. A disciplined checklist helps:
- Know what kind of Tesla debate you’re in
- If you’re underwriting Tesla as a carmaker, deliveries/margins dominate.
- If you’re underwriting Tesla as an autonomy/AI platform, regulatory clearance and robotaxi operations dominate.
- Separate “headline risk” from “thesis risk”
- A single investigation headline can move the stock.
- A regulatory outcome (recall, restrictions, marketing constraints) can change cash flows and deployment plans.
- Watch for confirmation
What investors should know about the next session and upcoming closures
If you’re planning trades or hedges around year-end, remember:
- Regular U.S. stock market hours are 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET. [34]
- The next scheduled full-market closure coming up soon is New Year’s Day (January 1, 2026), when U.S. markets are closed. [35]
Bottom line: Tesla’s year-end setup is a classic TSLA tug-of-war
Tesla stock today reflects a familiar pattern: near-term auto and regulatory pressure colliding with a long-duration autonomy and robotics narrative that many investors remain willing to pay for.
- Bears point to valuation sensitivity and the reality that regulation and demand can still bite quickly. [36]
- Bulls point to tangible steps in robotaxi testing and the market’s eagerness to reward evidence of progress. [37]
For Google News and Discover readers, the key is to track the dates and documents—deliveries timing, official earnings confirmation, and the evolving posture of regulators—because those are the inputs most likely to drive the next decisive move in TSLA.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
References
1. apnews.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.businessinsider.com, 18. www.marketscreener.com, 19. www.businessinsider.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investing.com, 22. ir.tesla.com, 23. finance.yahoo.com, 24. www.wallstreethorizon.com, 25. www.nasdaq.com, 26. ir.tesla.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.nyse.com, 30. apnews.com, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.reuters.com, 34. www.nasdaq.com, 35. www.nasdaq.com, 36. www.businessinsider.com, 37. www.reuters.com
