NEW YORK — Friday, December 26, 2025 (12:17 p.m. ET).
Shares of TMC the metals company Inc. (NASDAQ: TMC) were sharply lower around midday Friday, swinging with the kind of volatility investors have come to expect from a stock whose fate is tied as much to regulators and geopolitics as it is to nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese.
As of the latest available quote (about 12:01 p.m. ET), TMC traded around $6.78, down roughly $0.84 from the prior close of $7.62 (about -11%), after opening near $7.66. Intraday trading ranged from roughly $6.76 to $7.76, with volume around 6.2 million shares—active for a holiday-week session.
The pullback is unfolding while the broader market remains near record territory in light post‑Christmas trading, a setup that can exaggerate moves in more speculative names. [1]
Why TMC stock is moving today: a regulatory catalyst meets year‑end volatility
TMC’s price action is arriving right after a major U.S. regulatory milestone became more formal and public.
On December 23, 2025, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) published a Federal Register notice stating it had received amended exploration license applications from The Metals Company USA, LLC (TMC USA) for deep seabed mining exploration activities in the Clarion‑Clipperton Zone (CCZ) and that NOAA determined the applications are “fully compliant” with applicable information requirements. [2]
That same notice set the next visible “calendar catalysts” for investors:
- Public comments close February 23, 2026
- Two virtual public hearings are scheduled for January 27–28, 2026 (3–7 p.m. ET each day) [3]
In plain English: the process is moving forward, but it is also moving into a phase designed to attract scrutiny—supportive, skeptical, and oppositional—on the public record.
With no fresh company press release dated December 26, the sharp move Friday looks consistent with holiday-week positioning and profit-taking / “sell-the-news” dynamics after a high-profile regulatory headline hit the tape earlier in the week—particularly given how widely TMC has been discussed as a high-beta “policy trade” in 2025. [4]
Market backdrop: indexes near highs, but holiday liquidity can distort smaller names
TMC’s decline is happening while major U.S. indexes hover near all-time highs in muted trading. Reuters reported Friday that Wall Street’s main indexes were near record levels in a post-Christmas session, with investors still focused on the outlook for rate cuts and 2026 earnings growth. [5]
That’s a friendly environment for risk assets in general—but it comes with a weird seasonal footnote: thin liquidity often makes volatile stocks even more volatile.
That matters for TMC because it is not a “steady compounder” kind of equity. It’s a permission-to-operate story—meaning that regulatory steps (and the market’s interpretation of them) can move the stock as much as quarterly fundamentals.
The core TMC thesis: “battery metals” from the deep sea, if permits arrive
TMC’s pitch to investors is straightforward, even if the execution is anything but: it wants to collect polymetallic nodules from the seafloor, then process them into metals used across batteries, infrastructure, and defense-linked supply chains.
The company has repeatedly emphasized a target to begin commercial production in Q4 2027—if it secures a commercial recovery permit. [6]
In August 2025, TMC published two economic studies it said showed a combined project value (NPV) of $23.6 billion, including a Pre‑Feasibility Study (PFS) NPV of $5.5 billion for the NORI‑D area and a “world-first” declaration of mineral reserves for a polymetallic nodule project of 51 million tonnes of probable mineral reserves. [7]
Those are enormous numbers—but investors typically apply heavy discounting because the project economics only matter if the regulatory path is viable and the technology scales.
The U.S. pathway: NOAA, DSHMRA, and what “progress” actually looks like
A key reason TMC is in the spotlight is its push to pursue a U.S.-based route under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act (DSHMRA), which gives NOAA authority to issue exploration licenses and commercial recovery permits.
In a May 2025 SEC filing, TMC disclosed that its U.S. subsidiary submitted two exploration license applications and one commercial recovery permit application to NOAA in April 2025 and that it was “increasingly focused” on advancing its commercial production strategy under the U.S. DSHMRA regime. [8]
Two critical reality checks from authoritative sources:
- NOAA has not issued any commercial recovery permits under DSHMRA to date. [9]
- The NOAA review process for permits can involve interagency consultation, an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) under NEPA, and public comment—and DSHMRA does not provide a hard statutory deadline for completing reviews. [10]
From TMC’s side, the company’s November 13, 2025 corporate update said NOAA had notified TMC USA of full compliance on its exploration applications and confirmed priority rights over its exploration areas, and also referenced reports that NOAA’s proposed consolidated application rule was under White House review. [11]
Meanwhile, NOAA’s deep seabed mining page highlights a proposed rule (issued July 7, 2025) that would revise regulations for exploration license and commercial recovery permit applications, including a move toward a more consolidated review process. [12]
The international overhang: ISA warns of “unilateral” risk beyond national jurisdiction
Here’s where the plot gets properly oceanic.
Much of the CCZ is beyond national jurisdiction, and the global framework most countries point to is the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the International Seabed Authority (ISA).
The ISA has been explicit in its public communications: it argues the legal mandate to regulate mineral-related activities in “the Area” beyond national jurisdiction rests with ISA, and it has warned that efforts to proceed outside the ISA framework could carry legal, diplomatic, financial, and reputational risks. [13]
The ISA also notes that its Secretary-General, Leticia Carvalho, expressed “deep concern” about TMC’s announcement to seek a U.S. permit while bypassing ISA’s established framework. [14]
For investors, the takeaway isn’t “who is right” (that’s a job for courts, governments, and diplomats). The takeaway is simpler and more brutal:
International pushback is a material risk factor—even if a U.S. permitting process advances.
A Congressional Research Service brief similarly flags that NOAA-issued licenses/permits may raise international recognition questions and notes the potential for international reaction if NOAA issues commercial recovery permits outside the ISA framework. [15]
Fundamentals check: cash position, losses, and why the stock trades like a levered option
TMC is still effectively a development-stage company. In its Q3 2025 corporate update, the company reported:
- Cash of ~$115.6 million at September 30, 2025
- Net loss of ~$184.5 million (about $0.46 per share) for the quarter
- It also discussed liquidity after warrant exercises and undrawn credit facilities [16]
That combination—large losses, meaningful but finite cash, and a long timeline—helps explain why TMC behaves less like a traditional materials producer and more like a high‑volatility “event equity.”
Market commentary has echoed this framing. A recent Motley Fool analysis described TMC as pre‑revenue and emphasized the unknown timeline around commercial licensing. [17]
Commodities tailwinds: why “metals mania” still matters to a company that doesn’t mine (yet)
Even if TMC isn’t producing metal today, it lives and dies by the narrative that future metals supply will be scarce, strategic, and expensive.
That narrative has fuel right now:
- Reuters reported gold and silver hit record highs amid rate-cut expectations and geopolitical uncertainty, with a MUFG commodities analyst noting the rally could continue with major banks forecasting further gains into 2026. [18]
- Barron’s reported copper prices surged past $12,000 a ton, calling attention to a potentially structural bull case for copper demand. [19]
TMC nodules are often described as containing a mix of nickel, copper, cobalt, and manganese, and the company has positioned itself as a potential future source of “critical minerals” for energy transition and defense-linked supply chains. [20]
Wall Street forecasts: limited coverage, but “Strong Buy” consensus on TipRanks
Analyst coverage of TMC is not as broad as it is for megacap miners or battery giants, but aggregated data can still shape retail expectations.
TipRanks shows a consensus “Strong Buy” based on three analyst ratings, with an average 12‑month price target of $8.33 (high $11.00, low $6.50). [21]
Important nuance: a small analyst count can make consensus targets fragile—one downgrade can swing the “consensus” quickly.
What investors should watch next (and what matters before the next session)
The U.S. stock market is open right now (it’s midday in New York), but whether you’re trading today or planning for the next session, the practical watchlist for TMC is unusually policy-heavy:
1) The NOAA comment window and hearings (calendar catalysts).
The Federal Register notice sets a clear runway: comments through Feb. 23, 2026, and hearings Jan. 27–28, 2026. Expect headlines, lobbying, and possibly legal positioning to intensify into those dates. [22]
2) Any NOAA updates on the commercial recovery permit.
Exploration licenses matter, but the “make-or-break” value driver is commercial recovery permission. Both the SEC filing and CRS summaries underscore that NOAA has not historically issued commercial recovery permits—so this is new territory. [23]
3) Regulatory rulemaking updates.
NOAA’s proposed rulemaking to revise application regulations remains part of the backdrop, and TMC has pointed to it as a potential streamlining mechanism. [24]
4) Holiday-week liquidity (today into the close, and into Monday).
Reuters characterized the session as muted and post-holiday; in thin markets, TMC’s bid-ask spreads and intraday swings can widen quickly. For investors, that’s often an argument for discipline (position sizing, limit orders, and a plan). [25]
Bottom line: TMC is trading like a referendum on whether the U.S. will meaningfully reopen deep-seabed mining permitting—and whether that pathway can withstand domestic environmental scrutiny and international legal friction. Friday’s drop doesn’t erase the regulatory progress implied by the Federal Register notice, but it does underline the stock’s defining characteristic: it’s a volatility machine powered by policy. [26]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.federalregister.gov, 3. www.federalregister.gov, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investors.metals.co, 7. investors.metals.co, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. investors.metals.co, 12. oceanservice.noaa.gov, 13. isa.org.jm, 14. isa.org.jm, 15. www.congress.gov, 16. investors.metals.co, 17. www.fool.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.barrons.com, 20. metals.co, 21. www.tipranks.com, 22. www.federalregister.gov, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.federalregister.gov, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.federalregister.gov
