New York — 1:30 p.m. ET, Friday, December 26, 2025.
Gold prices are ripping higher again in post-Christmas trading, pushing into new all-time-high territory even as U.S. stocks hover near record levels. The rally is being powered by a familiar macro cocktail—rate-cut expectations, a weaker U.S. dollar, and renewed demand for “hard assets”—but the speed of the move is also being amplified by thin year-end liquidity and positioning into the final sessions of 2025. [1]
Below is what’s happening right now, what top analysts and major institutions are forecasting for 2026, and what investors should keep on their radar before the next market session.
Gold price today: Where spot and futures are trading in New York
Gold is trading at record levels by nearly any benchmark traders watch:
- Spot gold was up about 1.2% at $4,533.43/oz around midday New York time after touching a record $4,549.71/oz earlier in the session. [2]
- U.S. COMEX gold futures (February) were around $4,566.50/oz in the same window. [3]
- Some market updates also flagged new record highs in gold futures near $4,584/oz during the session, reflecting strong momentum across precious metals contracts. [4]
If you’re watching “gold price today” via retail-facing spot feeds, you may see slightly different prints depending on timestamp and source—an important nuance on a day when prices are moving quickly. [5]
Why gold is surging now—even with U.S. stocks near records
Gold’s surge is not happening in a vacuum. It’s moving alongside (not against) risk assets, which is often what you see when markets believe the direction of interest rates is down and the purchasing power of cash is weakening.
1) Rate-cut expectations are doing the heavy lifting
Markets are increasingly focused on how far the Federal Reserve may go with easing in 2026—and the timing matters. Reuters reporting today noted that traders are pricing at least two cuts in 2026, though not necessarily before mid-year, as the market weighs both data and Fed leadership uncertainty. [6]
In equities, that same theme is helping keep major indexes elevated: the S&P 500 is about 1% from 7,000 and remains in a strong year-end trend, with investors closely watching the Fed’s next signals. [7]
2) The U.S. dollar is acting like a tailwind
Gold is priced in dollars globally, so a softer greenback mechanically supports bullion.
Reuters’ global markets wrap put the U.S. dollar index near 97.93 on Friday, underscoring a downshift in dollar momentum as investors look ahead to potential Fed easing and a changing U.S. policy landscape. [8]
3) The “opportunity cost” backdrop remains supportive
Gold doesn’t pay interest, so traders watch real yields and nominal Treasury rates closely. Session commentary cited the 10-year Treasury yield around 4.15% as markets digested rate expectations and holiday-thinned trading. [9]
When investors believe yields will trend lower (or inflation risk will trend higher), gold’s relative appeal increases—especially for portfolio hedging.
Thin holiday markets are magnifying the move
Today’s action is also a market-structure story. The day after Christmas often brings lighter liquidity, and that can exaggerate price moves across asset classes—including gold.
Reuters quoted Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, warning that “thin markets” are driving volatility, with some risk of profit-taking into year-end—but he emphasized the trend still looks strong. [10]
That same dynamic shows up in stocks: AP described trading volumes as light with many institutional players largely out of the way, even as indexes remain close to highs. [11]
What the stock market is doing right now—and why gold traders care
As of midday Friday, U.S. stocks were mixed to slightly lower in quiet trading after the holiday:
- S&P 500: down about 0.1%
- Dow: down about 0.2%
- Nasdaq: roughly flat [12]
From a gold perspective, this matters for two reasons:
- Gold is rallying without an equity crash, suggesting the bid is coming from macro (rates/dollar) and strategic allocation flows—not only panic hedging.
- If equities remain resilient into year-end, gold can still climb if investors believe easier policy and currency weakness continue—especially if portfolio managers are rebalancing hedges into 2026.
Reuters’ week-ahead coverage captured the prevailing equity tone, with Paul Nolte of Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management saying momentum remains with the bulls absent a shock. [13]
Forecasts and analysis: Where gold could go in 2026
With gold already at record highs, forecasts are increasingly split between “rangebound digestion” and “structural bull market continues.” Here’s what major institutions and widely cited research desks are saying.
Goldman Sachs: $4,900 by December 2026 (base case)
Goldman Sachs projected gold could rise to $4,900/oz by December 2026, pointing to structurally high central bank demand and cyclical support from Fed rate cuts, while also flagging upside risk if diversification demand broadens. [14]
J.P. Morgan: toward $5,000/oz by Q4 2026, with longer-term upside scenarios
J.P. Morgan Global Research has published an outlook that expects gold prices to push toward $5,000/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026, with $6,000/oz discussed as a longer-term possibility in a bullish extension scenario. [15]
World Gold Council: 2026 scenarios range from flat to meaningfully higher—depending on macro shocks
The World Gold Council (WGC) frames 2026 not as a single-point forecast but as scenario ranges driven by growth, inflation, yields, and risk events. Their outlook highlights the idea that “macro consensus” could imply rangebound outcomes, while stress scenarios tied to risk aversion and policy shifts can skew returns higher. [16]
State Street Global Advisors: a bullish skew, with a $5,000 bull case
State Street’s gold outlook assigns a bull case (30% probability) where gold lands in a $4,500–$5,000/oz zone, with catalysts including sustained central bank demand, steadier China retail demand, and strong ETF flows—plus the potential for stagflation fears or a risk-asset liquidity shock to accelerate upside. [17]
ING: Central bank demand looks structural; ETF flows are a major swing factor
ING’s research argues central-bank accumulation appears more structural than tactical and notes ETF demand has been a powerful force, with holdings and flows becoming increasingly important as policy expectations shift. [18]
The “structural bid”: Central banks and ETF flows
Two demand channels keep showing up in nearly every serious 2026 gold outlook: official-sector buying and ETF flows.
Gold ETFs: Inflows have been persistent—and big
World Gold Council data shows six consecutive months of inflows into global physically backed gold ETFs, with $5.2 billion added in November, pushing total AUM to $530 billion and holdings to 3,932 tonnes, described as the highest month-end levels on record. [19]
Safe-haven + allocation: What’s driving demand narrative-wise
Reuters has also pointed to a mix of drivers behind 2025’s dramatic rise—safe-haven demand, rate-cut bets, central-bank buying, “de-dollarisation” trends, and ETF buying—helping set up the debate for what carries into 2026. [20]
Key risks investors should not ignore
Even in a powerful bull trend, gold is not a one-way trade—especially into year-end and around major policy uncertainty.
1) Profit-taking and positioning risk
With gold up sharply and trading in thin markets, pullbacks can be sudden. Reuters explicitly raised the risk of profit-taking before year-end even as the broader trend remains strong. [21]
2) Fed path uncertainty (and “higher for longer” surprises)
The Fed outlook is unusually sensitive to incoming inflation and growth data—and to messaging. Reuters notes the market is intensely focused on how many cuts come next year and the debate inside the Fed. [22]
3) Stagflation risk could complicate rate cuts
Not all economists are convinced easing will be smooth. Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Sløk warned stagflation risk could re-emerge and potentially derail some of the rate-cut optimism embedded in markets. [23]
Is the stock exchange open right now? Yes—and here’s what to watch next
Yes. The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq are open for normal trading hours on December 26, with the core session running 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET. [24]
Since it’s currently 1:30 p.m. ET, the U.S. stock market is open.
What investors should know before the next session
The next regular U.S. equity session after today will be Monday, December 29, 2025 (markets closed over the weekend). Ahead of that, here are the practical items to monitor:
1) Watch the “into the close” tape for gold and miners
When liquidity is thin, the last hour can produce outsized moves. Mining shares have been responding to the metals surge, and broad equities are still near highs. [25]
2) Keep an eye on the dollar index and Treasury yields
Today’s gold strength is tightly linked to the dollar and rate expectations. A sudden dollar bounce or yield spike can cool bullion quickly, even if the longer-term trend remains constructive. [26]
3) Fed minutes next week could change the narrative
Reuters reports that minutes from the Fed’s December meeting are due Tuesday of next week, a potential volatility catalyst for gold, yields, and equities as investors reprice the 2026 path. [27]
4) Policy and leadership headlines can move markets fast
Markets are also watching for signals on the next Fed chair nomination, which Reuters notes could sway sentiment. [28]
How investors are getting exposure to gold right now
For investors evaluating “how to buy gold” at record levels, the market offers several mainstream routes—each with different risks:
- Spot/OTC exposure (common for institutions via major banks and bullion hubs)
- Futures (COMEX is a key venue for price discovery and leverage)
- Exchange-traded products/ETFs (popular for portfolio allocation without taking delivery) [29]
The choice often comes down to whether the goal is long-term diversification, tactical trading, inflation protection, or hedging tail risks.
Bottom line: Gold is breaking records above $4,500 as of this post-Christmas session, supported by Fed-cut expectations, a softer dollar, and strong structural demand narratives (ETFs and central banks). But with thin year-end liquidity, investors should expect sharp two-way swings—especially around the close and into next week’s Fed communication. [30]
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.investopedia.com, 5. www.jmbullion.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investopedia.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. apnews.com, 12. apnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.jpmorgan.com, 16. www.gold.org, 17. www.ssga.com, 18. think.ing.com, 19. www.gold.org, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.businessinsider.com, 24. www.nyse.com, 25. apnews.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com
