New York — As of 4:09 p.m. ET on Friday, December 26, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange’s regular session has ended, shifting attention to after-hours headlines and positioning for Monday’s open.
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is finishing the post‑Christmas session under pressure even as the broader market remains near record territory. TSLA was last indicated around $476, down roughly 2% on the day, after trading between roughly $474 and $489 with heavy turnover of more than 53 million shares.
By contrast, broad market proxies were basically flat to slightly higher: SPY (S&P 500 ETF) was fractionally lower, QQQ (Nasdaq‑100 ETF) slightly higher, and DIA (Dow ETF) essentially unchanged—consistent with a thin, year‑end tape where single‑name catalysts can dominate stock‑specific moves.
That contrast matters for Tesla investors because the current TSLA narrative is unusually catalyst-driven: autonomy progress, regulatory risk, and delivery expectations are colliding into the final trading days of 2025—right as Wall Street’s “Santa rally” season keeps indexes elevated and investors debate whether 2026 rate cuts will extend the bull run. [1]
Why Tesla stock is moving into the close
Tesla’s late‑December trading is being shaped by a trio of themes that are often pulling in opposite directions:
1) Autonomy momentum is back in the driver’s seat
Tesla’s valuation debate has re-centered on autonomous driving and robotaxis. Earlier this month, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla was testing robotaxis without a front‑seat safety monitor, a milestone that has repeatedly acted as a sentiment catalyst for the stock. Reuters also quoted Morningstar senior equity analyst Seth Goldstein saying the update aligned with expectations that Tesla is progressing in testing, and noted that markets “cheered” signs of progress. [2]
MarketWatch’s year‑end analysis adds important context: it describes Tesla’s investor base as increasingly focused on AI/autonomy “optionality,” even as execution and rollout timelines remain debated and past Musk timelines have often proven optimistic. [3]
What investors are watching now: multiple outlets note Musk’s end‑of‑year push around “unsupervised” capability in Austin, framing late December as a high‑visibility checkpoint for Tesla’s autonomy story. [4]
2) Deliveries are being revised down—again—into Q4
While autonomy dominates the long-term valuation argument, near-term fundamentals still matter. Over the last week, analysts have trimmed Q4 2025 delivery expectations into early January.
- New Street Research has been cited forecasting roughly 415,000–435,000 Q4 deliveries, below some consensus tallies, describing the post‑incentive environment as a demand air pocket in the U.S. [5]
- UBS analyst Joseph Spak has been cited at ~415,000 deliveries and reiterated a Sell stance with a $247 price target in a widely circulated note. [6]
- Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu has been cited forecasting around ~405,000 deliveries, implying a sizable sequential and year‑over‑year decline, with the shortfall concentrated in Western markets. [7]
A key reason the delivery debate is so heated: the U.S. EV market is still digesting the end of incentives. Reuters reported that EV demand broadly weakened after the $7,500 federal tax credit ended at the end of September, and that Tesla responded with cheaper “Standard” variants—yet U.S. sales still slipped meaningfully in November based on Cox Automotive estimates. [8]
Investor takeaway: even if Tesla bulls argue deliveries are becoming “less important” than autonomy, the stock has historically reacted to delivery beats/misses versus headline expectations—especially in thin liquidity windows like year‑end. [9]
3) Regulatory scrutiny is rising—on both safety hardware and autonomy marketing
Two separate U.S. actions are increasing Tesla’s regulatory headline risk:
A) NHTSA probe into emergency door releases (Model 3, 2022 model year)
Reuters reported that U.S. auto safety regulators opened an investigation into approximately 179,000 Model 3 vehicles over concerns the emergency mechanical door release may be difficult to identify or access. [10]
Barron’s coverage similarly emphasized the investigation and the potential for incremental regulatory overhang. [11]
B) California DMV action over “Autopilot” / “Full Self‑Driving” marketing
In California—Tesla’s biggest U.S. market—regulators have been pressing Tesla to change how it markets driver-assistance capabilities. Reuters reported the DMV put a potential sales suspension on hold for now while Tesla is given time to address concerns over how it brands/markets “Autopilot” and FSD. [12]
California’s DMV also published an official update stating Tesla has a window to take action and that failure to do so could trigger a time-limited suspension. [13]
Why this matters for TSLA pricing: even when immediate business impact is delayed, regulatory actions can affect Tesla’s autonomy narrative—especially as Tesla tries to convince markets it can safely scale into driverless ride-hailing.
The broader market setup: thin year-end trading, big macro checkpoints
Tesla’s single‑stock catalysts are landing during a market regime Reuters describes as equities near record peaks, with investors watching for an upbeat end to 2025 and eyeing additional milestones (including the S&P 500 approaching 7,000). [14]
Reuters also highlighted two macro dynamics that matter for growth stocks like Tesla:
- Fed expectations: The market remains intensely focused on how many cuts come in 2026 and when. Reuters noted the Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 75 bps over the last three meetings of 2025 to a 3.50%–3.75% range and that Fed minutes due next week could influence rate expectations. [15]
- Year-end positioning: Light volumes can exaggerate moves, and portfolio adjustments can create sudden volatility—even without major Tesla-specific news. [16]
That’s the environment Tesla is trading in right now: low-liquidity market structure + high headline sensitivity.
Wall Street forecasts: why TSLA targets range from “sell” to “moonshot”
If you’re looking for a single “Tesla stock forecast,” you won’t find one—because the stock’s valuation is increasingly a referendum on autonomy timelines.
Here’s the current landscape investors are reacting to:
The bear / cautious camp: “Deliveries and valuation still matter”
- UBS (Joseph Spak): cited at Sell, $247 target, and ~415k Q4 deliveries—implying substantial downside from current prices if Tesla fails to execute on expectations. [17]
- Morningstar (Seth Goldstein) has been featured arguing the market is pricing in a lot of autonomy success, with real-world scaling likely taking time. [18]
The bull camp: “AI + robotaxis can rewrite the TAM”
- Wedbush (Dan Ives) has been widely quoted calling 2026 a “defining year,” with expectations for broader robotaxi progress and a path toward multi‑trillion-dollar valuation narratives if execution lands. [19]
- ARK Invest (Cathie Wood) remains structurally bullish on robotaxis; recent reporting also noted Ark sold some TSLA shares even as it kept Tesla among key holdings—illustrating how volatile positioning can be even inside the bull camp. [20]
The “tug-of-war” middle: “Robotaxi is the story, but regulation and timing decide the multiple”
MarketWatch summarized the split well: Tesla’s EV sales trends have been soft in several geographies, yet investors remain focused on robotaxis and AI as the long-term value driver. [21]
Is the stock market closed now? Yes—what Tesla investors should know before the next session
Because it’s after 4:00 p.m. ET in New York, the regular U.S. stock session is closed. The NYSE’s standard trading hours are 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET on regular days, and holiday schedules can shorten or close sessions. [22]
With today being a Friday, the next regular session is Monday morning—which means Tesla investors have a weekend window where headlines can accumulate and then reprice quickly at the open.
What to watch between now and Monday’s open
- After-hours and weekend headline risk (regulation + autonomy)
The highest-sensitivity headlines for TSLA right now are:
- any incremental detail on the NHTSA Model 3 emergency release probe [23]
- updates on the California DMV marketing dispute and how Tesla responds [24]
- any credible confirmation or evidence of expanded driverless testing / “unsupervised” progress [25]
- The Q4 deliveries countdown
The market is already anchoring to early January delivery numbers. UBS and others explicitly flagged that the delivery print can still move TSLA, even if long-term investors care more about robotaxis. [26]
If the Street’s trimmed expectations slide further into year-end, Tesla may face a higher bar to “surprise positively” even with a decent report. - Macro catalysts that disproportionately hit high-multiple AI stocks
Reuters’ week-ahead preview singled out rate expectations and Fed communication as key drivers as 2025 ends—important because Tesla often trades with (and sometimes amplifies) the broader AI/growth risk appetite. [27] - Corporate governance / Musk factor
A separate but meaningful sentiment input: Reuters reported the Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Musk’s 2018 Tesla pay deal (now worth far more than its original value), reinforcing Musk’s control and keeping governance headlines in the mix. [28]
Bottom line for TSLA: the “AI optionality” premium is being stress-tested
Tesla stock is ending the week in a market that’s still optimistic about 2026—yet the company is simultaneously facing:
- rising regulatory scrutiny (NHTSA + California DMV) [29]
- renewed focus on whether Q4 deliveries disappoint [30]
- and the biggest driver of upside/downside: whether robotaxi progress moves from “testing” to “scaling” on a timeline the market is already pricing in. [31]
For investors heading into Monday, the key question isn’t just “is TSLA up or down?”—it’s whether the next set of headlines reinforces Tesla as an AI/autonomy platform or drags attention back to cars, margins, and regulators.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.marketwatch.com, 4. www.marketwatch.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.investing.com, 7. www.investing.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.investing.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.barrons.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.dmv.ca.gov, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.investors.com, 20. www.investors.com, 21. www.marketwatch.com, 22. www.nyse.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.reuters.com
