As of 8:40 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, December 26, 2025, Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) is indicated around $119.11, down about 0.09% from the prior close after a quiet, post-holiday session.
The broader U.S. market finished nearly flat—the S&P 500 slipped about 0.03% and the Dow fell about 0.04%—a backdrop that left Exxon trading more in line with commodity headlines than with equity risk-on/risk-off momentum. [1]
With U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, attention shifts to what can move energy shares before the next opening bell: oil prices, geopolitics, and a fast-approaching January catalyst calendar that includes Exxon’s upcoming “4Q25 Earnings Considerations 8‑K” and the market’s focus on late-January earnings expectations. [2]
Why Exxon Mobil stock is trading cautiously: oil fell hard into the close
The biggest near-term driver for Exxon—and the entire integrated oil group—was a late-week selloff in crude.
Reuters reported that Brent settled down about 2.57% at $60.64/bbl and WTI settled down about 2.76% at $56.74/bbl on Friday, with investors weighing the risk of a global supply glut alongside geopolitics and potential developments in the Russia–Ukraine peace process. [3]
Two details from the same Reuters report matter for Exxon investors heading into Monday:
- Oversupply narrative: Reuters cited figures from the IEA’s December oil market report indicating next year’s global oil supply could exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, reinforcing concerns that any price rebound may face resistance if inventories build. [4]
- Geopolitics as “headline risk,” not a structural fix: Reuters quoted Aegis Hedging analysts saying geopolitical premiums have offered near-term support but haven’t changed the oversupply backdrop, and also cited Dennis Kissler (BOK Financial) on how storage and peace-talk momentum can weigh on crude. [5]
For a market-based read-through, the United States Oil Fund (USO)—a widely watched crude proxy—also reflected the pressure, trading lower on the day.
Bottom line for XOM: when crude slides 2–3% in a session, the market typically re-prices near-term upstream cash flow assumptions, even if Exxon’s integrated model (upstream + refining/chemicals) can soften some volatility.
Exxon’s big fundamental story: a more ambitious 2030 plan—with no capex increase
The most important Exxon-specific narrative in late 2025 has been management’s refreshed long-range plan.
On December 9, Exxon released a Corporate Plan Update through 2030, raising its outlook to $25 billion in earnings growth and $35 billion in cash flow growth versus 2024 on a constant price and margin basis, and emphasizing that the step-up comes without increasing capital spending. [6]
In the company’s press release, CEO Darren Woods said Exxon’s transformation is “driving industry-leading results,” and the plan targets return on capital employed above 17% in 2030. [7]
Key plan items investors keep circling back to:
- Shareholder returns remain central: Exxon said it remains on track to repurchase $20 billion of shares in 2025 and intends to maintain that pace through 2026, assuming reasonable market conditions. [8]
- Upstream production growth: Exxon’s plan includes total upstream production rising to 5.5 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2030, with “advantaged assets” (including Permian, Guyana, and LNG) expected to make up a majority of volumes. [9]
- Permian economics: Reuters reported Exxon expects the cost of supply in the Permian around $30 per barrel, aided by AI and operational optimization. [10]
- Pioneer synergies: Exxon’s plan update states Pioneer synergies are expected to be $4 billion annually, double initial estimates, a notable data point as investors judge integration execution. [11]
- Cost savings: Exxon lifted its cumulative structural cost savings plan to $20 billion vs. 2019. [12]
This long-range message is a core reason why Exxon can sometimes trade “steadier” than pure exploration-and-production peers: the investment case is being framed around durable, scaled cash generation plus a visible return-of-capital program, not just near-term commodity beta.
The latest quarter that still anchors the stock: Exxon’s Q3 2025 results
While the 2030 plan paints the destination, near-term performance still matters—and Exxon’s most recent completed quarter continues to shape valuation expectations.
For third-quarter 2025, Exxon reported:
- Earnings of $7.5 billion (GAAP) and cash flow from operations of $14.8 billion, with free cash flow of $6.3 billion (per its investor relations release). [13]
- $9.4 billion returned to shareholders in the quarter—$4.2 billion in dividends and $5.1 billion in share repurchases. [14]
- A fourth-quarter dividend of $1.03/share, a 4% increase, payable December 10, 2025 to shareholders of record November 14, 2025. [15]
Reuters’ coverage of that earnings release highlighted how production gains in Guyana and the Permian helped Exxon beat expectations, and noted that adjusted earnings were $1.88 per share, above the $1.82 consensus estimate compiled by LSEG. [16]
Reuters also cited TPH & Co analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon, who pointed to higher spending as a counterweight to otherwise positive earnings headlines—an important reminder that Exxon’s “advantaged growth” is still capital-intensive, particularly as it secures acreage and builds infrastructure. [17]
Guyana and the Permian remain the growth engine—and the market is watching execution
Two operating theaters have become the centerpiece of Exxon’s growth narrative: Guyana and the Permian Basin.
Guyana: multiyear project pipeline
Reuters reported Exxon greenlit funding for its seventh development project in Guyana, the $6.8 billion Hammerhead project, as part of a push toward 1.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2030 from the country. Reuters also reported first oil is expected in Q2 2029 and that the project will use an FPSO designed for roughly 150,000 bpd capacity. [18]
Separately, Reuters reported Guyana’s vice president said gas development remains on the table, with discussion around future projects such as Longtail and the potential monetization strategy for gas—an area investors increasingly view as critical for long-duration value creation beyond crude exports. [19]
Permian + infrastructure: a “systems” buildout
In late November, Reuters reported Exxon agreed to acquire a 40% stake in Enterprise Products Partners’ Bahia NGL pipeline, including a plan to expand capacity toward 1 million bpd (expected by early 2026 after closing) via pumping stations and a new extension to Exxon’s Cowboy gas processing plant in New Mexico. [20]
For equity investors, that matters because it addresses a less glamorous but decisive question: can production growth get to market efficiently and profitably?
CFO transition: what changed, what didn’t
Executive transitions rarely drive a long-term thesis, but they can influence sentiment—especially for a mega-cap with a shareholder-return story.
In a December 8, 2025 Form 8‑K filing, Exxon said CFO Kathryn A. Mikells will retire effective February 1, 2026, citing a “debilitating but non-life-threatening health issue,” and that Neil A. Hansen will succeed her as CFO on the same date. [21]
Exxon’s filing notes Hansen is an internal executive with prior roles spanning product solutions leadership and senior finance positions, including investor relations—details that typically signal continuity rather than a strategic reset. [22]
Analyst forecasts and price targets: where Wall Street currently lands on XOM
On the Street, Exxon is often evaluated on a blend of:
- Commodity sensitivity (near-term oil and gas prices),
- capital discipline (capex vs. free cash flow),
- and return of capital (dividend + buybacks).
Recent consensus snapshots show a fairly typical mega-cap energy profile: a wide target range, but a cluster of targets moderately above the current price.
- MarketBeat’s compilation shows an average 12‑month price target around $129.45, with a high of $158 and a low of $105. [23]
- Investing.com’s consensus estimates similarly show an average 12‑month target around the low $130s, with highs around $158 and lows around the low $100s. [24]
- Recent analyst-note headlines reported Wells Fargo raising a target to $158 (Overweight) and Morgan Stanley raising its target to $137 (Overweight), following Exxon’s updated growth outlook. [25]
Investors should treat these as directional signposts, not promises—especially when the most powerful variable (oil) can move sharply on geopolitics, OPEC+ policy, and macro demand.
The biggest debate under the surface: LNG growth vs. renewables disruption
Exxon’s plan emphasizes LNG among its advantaged assets—but the LNG market is also the site of a major industry argument: is the world building too much liquefied natural gas capacity?
A Reuters Breakingviews column this week warned that the combination of aggressive LNG supply expansion, rapid declines in renewable and battery costs, and long lead times for gas turbine delivery could set up an LNG downturn later this decade. It cited comments including TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné saying the sector is “building too much,” and referenced data points such as battery cost declines and renewable competitiveness projections. [26]
For Exxon shareholders, this doesn’t necessarily negate the LNG thesis—but it does underscore why markets may demand:
- stronger proof of contracted demand,
- disciplined project timing, and
- resilience if LNG pricing weakens.
Policy and legal overhangs: climate disclosures and litigation remain in focus
In addition to commodity cycles, Exxon continues to face legal and regulatory headlines that can affect sentiment, costs, and long-term risk perception.
- The Los Angeles Times reported Exxon filed suit challenging California climate disclosure laws on First Amendment grounds, with reporting requirements beginning in 2026 for certain emissions scopes. [27]
- The Sabin Center for Climate Change Law (Columbia) summarized an update in which a Connecticut trial court denied Exxon’s motion to strike claims alleging deceptive marketing conduct related to climate change, highlighting ongoing litigation risk around “greenwashing” and consumer-protection theories. [28]
- Reuters also reported the U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear Exxon’s bid for compensation related to Cuban assets seized in 1960, a case linked to the Helms‑Burton Act framework. [29]
These matters can take years to resolve, but investors often watch them for two reasons: potential financial exposure and potential impact on operating flexibility (including disclosure and reporting burdens).
What investors should know before the next market session
With trading paused until Monday’s opening, here are the most actionable “watch items” for Exxon Mobil stock (XOM) heading into the next session:
1) Weekend oil headlines can reprice energy stocks fast
Friday’s Reuters settlement story emphasized oversupply concerns, IEA balances, and the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical developments tied to Venezuela and Russia‑Ukraine talks. Any weekend developments that shift perceived supply risk can move crude—and Exxon—quickly at Monday’s open. [30]
2) Exxon’s near-term catalyst calendar starts in early January
Exxon’s investor relations site lists an upcoming event: “4Q25 Earnings Considerations 8‑K” on Wednesday, January 7, after market hours. Investors often use these filings to frame how commodity prices, margins, and other variables may have impacted the quarter. [31]
3) The market is already looking toward late-January earnings season
While third-party calendars estimate Exxon’s next earnings report around late January, Exxon’s own IR page highlights the January 7 “earnings considerations” item, which can act as a key waypoint for expectations. [32]
4) The long-term story remains “advantaged growth + buybacks,” but execution matters
Exxon has raised long-term targets (earnings and cash flow growth) and reaffirmed repurchase ambitions—yet the stock’s week-to-week path still often tracks oil, and the market will keep scoring execution in the Permian/Guyana buildout and infrastructure expansion. [33]
The setup for Exxon Mobil stock heading into 2026
From an investor’s perspective, Exxon enters the new year with three clear pillars supporting the XOM narrative:
- Scale and integration that can cushion parts of the commodity cycle,
- A clearly stated return-of-capital plan (including the stated buyback pace), and
- A deep advantaged-asset pipeline led by the Permian and Guyana. [34]
The counterweights are equally clear:
- If the market stays focused on an oil supply glut and weaker prices persist, near-term earnings power can compress. [35]
- If LNG expansion runs into a future demand or pricing air pocket—as some industry voices warn—investors may demand higher proof of profitability and contracting discipline. [36]
- And legal/regulatory disputes can add noise (and sometimes cost) even if they don’t change daily operations. [37]
For Monday’s open, the simplest framework is still the most reliable: watch crude, watch macro/geopolitics, and watch for Exxon-specific disclosures as January begins.
References
1. www.marketwatch.com, 2. investor.exxonmobil.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. investor.exxonmobil.com, 7. investor.exxonmobil.com, 8. investor.exxonmobil.com, 9. investor.exxonmobil.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. investor.exxonmobil.com, 12. investor.exxonmobil.com, 13. investor.exxonmobil.com, 14. investor.exxonmobil.com, 15. investor.exxonmobil.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.sec.gov, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.marketbeat.com, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.latimes.com, 28. climate.law.columbia.edu, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. investor.exxonmobil.com, 32. investor.exxonmobil.com, 33. investor.exxonmobil.com, 34. investor.exxonmobil.com, 35. www.reuters.com, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.latimes.com
