As of 10:40 p.m. ET in New York on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, U.S. markets have wrapped up the post-Christmas session and are heading into a weekend — leaving investors to digest a fresh cluster of headline catalysts around Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK) before the next opening bell.
Merck shares finished the regular session around $106.78, after trading in a $106.03 to $107.05 range on the day — with thin holiday-week liquidity still shaping tape action across the market. [1]
What happened in the broader market — and why it matters for MRK
Friday’s trading was muted, with U.S. stocks slipping modestly in the quiet stretch between Christmas and New Year’s. The S&P 500 ended near 6,929.94, the Dow around 48,710.97, and the Nasdaq about 23,593.10, according to an Associated Press market recap. [2]
Zooming out, Reuters’ week-ahead analysis underscored how close the market is trading to psychological milestones — with the S&P 500 nearing 7,000 — after a late-2025 run that has been supported by expectations of easier monetary policy and shifting leadership in the rally. [3]
That context matters for defensive, cash-generative healthcare names like Merck. When investors rotate away from high-beta momentum and back toward “quality” balance sheets, large pharma often benefits — particularly in year-end portfolio positioning and tax strategy windows.
Merck stock performance: a late-year push toward new highs
Merck is closing out 2025 with notable technical momentum. Based on recent trading history, MRK has been on a steady climb from the low-$100s into the mid-$100s in the final stretch of December, culminating in Friday’s move toward the $107 area. [4]
Merck’s rally has also shown up in index math. During the holiday week, MarketWatch noted Merck’s role as a positive contributor to the Dow Jones Industrial Average on strong up-days for the stock, reinforcing how MRK strength can influence headline index moves. [5]
For investors, the key question is whether this run is merely year-end positioning — or a re-rating driven by new fundamentals and policy developments.
The biggest Merck headlines right now
1) Merck joins a high-profile U.S. drug-pricing deal tied to TrumpRx
One of the most market-relevant developments is Merck’s inclusion in a set of agreements announced by the White House aimed at reducing U.S. drug prices using a “most-favored-nation” pricing approach, and pushing more discounted direct-to-consumer purchasing through TrumpRx. The White House fact sheet lists Merck among nine manufacturers participating in the agreements. [6]
Merck, in its own statement, described a direct-to-patient program for eligible U.S. patients that currently includes JANUVIA, JANUMET, and JANUMET XR — with cash prices described as approximately 70% off current list price — and said the program would later expand to include enlicitide decanoate if approved. [7]
Reuters reported that the broader set of agreements includes Medicaid price cuts on most drugs, with tariff-related incentives in return — and that markets initially interpreted the economics as manageable. In the same Reuters report, Bernstein analyst Courtney Breen said the deals appeared designed to generate headlines while limiting “step-change” impacts to company economics. [8]
What investors should watch:
This is not a simple “good” or “bad” headline for MRK. Expanded discounting can pressure revenue at the margin, but political de-risking (including tariff and reimbursement clarity) can also reduce uncertainty — a factor that often supports valuation multiples for mega-cap pharma.
2) FDA priority vouchers: Merck gets a potentially meaningful regulatory tailwind
Another major catalyst came from the FDA’s Commissioner’s National Priority Voucher (CNPV) pilot program. On Dec. 19, 2025, the FDA announced it awarded national priority vouchers to two investigational products, including:
- Enlicitide decanoate, an oral PCSK9 inhibitor for lowering LDL cholesterol
- Sacituzumab tirumotecan (Sac-TMT), a TROP2-directed antibody-drug conjugate [9]
Reuters reported that the voucher program can cut review timelines down to one to two months from a typical 10–12 months, and that Merck’s drugs were the latest additions since the program’s launch in June 2025. [10]
This matters for MRK stock because the market’s biggest concern is the company’s long-term growth path beyond its dominant oncology franchise — and faster regulatory paths can bring forward optionality.
3) Oncology pipeline: new data for Keytruda combinations adds “post-Keytruda” narrative fuel
Merck also released positive topline results for a Keytruda-based regimen in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC). On Dec. 17, 2025, the company said KEYTRUDA plus Padcev showed statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement in event-free survival, overall survival, and pathologic complete response versus chemotherapy and surgery in the KEYNOTE-B15 / EV-304 study. [11]
The release included expert commentary from Dr. Matthew Galsky (Mount Sinai Tisch Cancer Center), the trial’s principal investigator. [12]
A separate Merck release on related data highlighted risk reductions (including a reported reduction in risk of event-free survival events and death for certain patients in another study) and quoted Dr. Marjorie Green, Merck’s head of oncology global clinical development, emphasizing the potential for practice-changing impact in earlier-stage disease. [13]
From an investor’s perspective, results like these are important because they speak directly to Merck’s strategy: extend the Keytruda platform into new settings and combinations while building the next wave of revenue drivers.
Strategy moves: acquisitions and pipeline diversification
Verona Pharma acquisition: strengthening cardio-pulmonary exposure
Merck completed its acquisition of Verona Pharma in October 2025, paying $107 per ADS for a transaction value of approximately $10 billion, according to Merck. The deal adds Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine), a first-in-class COPD maintenance treatment approved in the U.S. in 2024, and Merck says the product is expected to grow into the next decade. [14]
This is a notable strategic point for MRK’s equity story: investors have wanted to see Merck diversify beyond oncology concentration, and cardio-pulmonary expansion is one clear pathway.
Cidara Therapeutics: a $9.2B bet on long-acting influenza prevention
In November 2025, Merck announced a definitive agreement to acquire Cidara Therapeutics for $221.50 per share in cash, totaling approximately $9.2 billion. The centerpiece is CD388, an investigational long-acting, strain-agnostic antiviral designed to prevent influenza in higher-risk individuals, already in Phase 3. Merck CEO Robert M. Davis said the company views CD388 as a potential growth driver “through the next decade.” [15]
If the market is rewarding “quality” healthcare with durable cash flows, a late-stage asset in a high-visibility infectious disease category can add to that perception — even before revenues materialize.
Fundamentals: what Merck has guided — and what shareholders are getting paid
Merck’s latest formal full-year outlook in 2025 (as of its third-quarter reporting cycle) projected full-year 2025 sales between $64.5 billion and $65.0 billion and non-GAAP EPS between $8.93 and $8.98, according to the company’s third-quarter 2025 financial results release. [16]
On shareholder returns, Merck’s board declared a $0.85 quarterly dividend for the first quarter of 2026, payable Jan. 8, 2026 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 15, 2025, per Merck’s dividend announcement. [17]
That dividend step-up, combined with MRK’s low-beta profile (often cited as defensive in volatile tape), is part of why Merck regularly screens as a core “income + quality” healthcare holding — particularly into uncertain macro periods.
Wall Street forecasts: where analysts see MRK over the next 12 months
Consensus expectations vary by provider, but the broad message is consistent: analysts generally expect modest upside from current levels, with a wide dispersion reflecting the Keytruda concentration debate.
- StockAnalysis lists a consensus “Buy” rating with an average target of $111.93, with targets ranging from $85 to $130. [18]
- TipRanks lists an average target around $116.38, with a high forecast near $139 and a low near $95, and a “Moderate Buy” consensus based on the analysts it tracks. [19]
A key takeaway for investors: the market is not pricing MRK like a high-growth biotech. Instead, it’s pricing a mature pharma leader where pipeline credibility, deal execution, and policy risk decide whether the stock stays rangebound or re-rates higher.
The biggest risk factor still hanging over Merck stock: the Keytruda cliff
Merck’s marquee drug Keytruda remains central to the bull-and-bear cases. Investors have long focused on the company’s patent and exclusivity timeline and what revenue replacement looks like later in the decade.
Separately, Reuters has previously reported that Merck expected Keytruda to be included in U.S. government price negotiations (with pricing taking effect later in the decade), and that the company anticipated declines tied both to policy pressure and patent dynamics. [20]
This is why the market is paying close attention to:
- earlier-stage Keytruda combinations (expanding labeled use),
- new modalities like ADCs, and
- non-oncology growth vectors like COPD and infectious disease prevention.
What investors should know before the next session
Because it’s late Friday night in New York, there is no next “session” until Monday — and next week is also structurally different due to the holiday calendar.
Investopedia’s week-ahead calendar notes that the coming week is holiday-shortened, with stock and bond markets closed Thursday for New Year’s Day, and bond trading ending early the day before. [21]
Practical checklist for MRK investors before Monday’s open
- Watch policy follow-through: Any additional details on the TrumpRx rollout, Medicaid pricing mechanics, or tariff exemptions could influence sentiment across large pharma. [22]
- Track FDA/clinical updates: After Merck’s priority voucher news, incremental reporting around filing timing and trial readouts can move expectations, especially for enlicitide and sac-TMT. [23]
- Mind the “thin tape” effect: Holiday weeks can exaggerate moves in either direction. A modest headline can appear larger than it would during full-liquidity trading.
- Know the next big date on Merck’s calendar: Merck’s investor relations site lists the Q4 2025 earnings call on Feb. 3, 2026. [24]
Bottom line for MRK stock heading into year-end
Merck stock is entering the final days of 2025 with momentum and a “quality rotation” narrative — but it’s also facing one of the most complex policy backdrops the pharma industry has navigated in years. The near-term story is being driven by Washington pricing developments and FDA process acceleration, while the longer-term story still hinges on whether Merck can convincingly build a post-Keytruda growth engine through pipeline execution and smart dealmaking. [25]
References
1. stockanalysis.com, 2. apnews.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. stockanalysis.com, 5. www.marketwatch.com, 6. www.whitehouse.gov, 7. www.merck.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.fda.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.merck.com, 12. www.merck.com, 13. www.merck.com, 14. www.merck.com, 15. www.merck.com, 16. www.msd.com, 17. www.merck.com, 18. stockanalysis.com, 19. www.tipranks.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.investopedia.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.merck.com, 25. www.fda.gov
