New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Weekend Outlook: S&P 500 Near 7,000 as Fed Minutes Loom and Year-End Trading Enters the Final Stretch

NEW YORK — As of 7:52 a.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 27, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange is closed, leaving investors with a classic “weekend gap” moment: plenty of headlines, no fresh price discovery.

That pause comes after Wall Street finished Friday’s post-Christmas session almost unchanged and close to all-time highs, a quiet landing that still left the major U.S. benchmarks up solidly for the week — and strongly positive for the year. ^[1]

With three NYSE sessions left in 2025 (Monday through Wednesday), investors are now staring at a familiar year-end cocktail: thin liquidity, portfolio “window dressing,” and a market narrative that’s starting to pivot from how did we get here? to what could derail (or extend) this into 2026? ^[2]

How the NYSE ended the last session: flat day, big year

On Friday, Dec. 26, the big picture was “barely a blink”:

S&P 500: down 2.11 points to 6,929.94
Dow Jones Industrial Average: down 20.19 points to 48,710.97
Nasdaq Composite: down 20.21 points to 23,593.10 ^[3]

Even with that fractional dip, the week was positive (S&P 500 +1.4%, Dow +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.2%), and 2025 remains a standout year with the S&P 500 up about 17.8% and the Nasdaq up about 22.2% with only a few sessions left. ^[4]

A key detail for anyone trying to interpret Friday’s “meh” finish: volume was notably light. Reuters put Friday’s U.S. exchange volume at about 10.22 billion shares versus a 20-day average near 15.98 billion, and the NYSE still logged hundreds of new highs — a reminder that “quiet” doesn’t necessarily mean “inactive.” ^[5]

Sector-wise, Reuters reported materials led on the day while consumer discretionary lagged, reflecting a market that’s not purely mega-cap-tech-or-bust anymore (at least not every day). ^[6]

The year-end market mood: “Santa rally” season meets low-liquidity reality

This is also the stretch traders love to mythologize: the so-called “Santa Claus rally”, typically defined as the last five trading days of the year plus the first two of the new year. Reuters noted that this period began mid-week and runs into early January. ^[7]

Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick framed Friday as a breather after a strong run, calling it “catching our breath” after the holiday — and emphasized that the Santa rally window still has time left. ^[8]

The important, non-magical takeaway: thin markets can exaggerate moves. When fewer institutional desks are active, it doesn’t take much to push prices around — which is why year-end “calm” can sometimes flip into sudden volatility on a single catalyst (economic data, a Fed headline, or a sharp move in rates/commodities). ^[9]

What to watch before Monday’s NYSE open: hours, catalysts, and calendar risk

NYSE trading hours for the next session

For standard NYSE-listed equities, the exchange’s core trading session runs from 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with a pre-opening session beginning at 6:30 a.m. ET (and opening/closing auctions at 9:30 a.m. and 4:00 p.m.). ^[10]

So if you’re planning for Monday, Dec. 29: the key decision isn’t just “bullish or bearish?” It’s also how you want to enter — especially given year-end liquidity.

Market-moving events next week

Reuters’ “Week Ahead” framing is straightforward: investors are watching whether the market can close out 2025 with momentum, with the S&P 500 sitting roughly ~1% from 7,000 and attention shifting to Fed communications and year-end positioning. ^[11]

Here are the big scheduled items that could matter for NYSE pricing:

Monday, Dec. 29: U.S. data including Advance International Trade in Goods (8:30 a.m. ET) and Pending Home Sales (10:00 a.m. ET) (per the New York Fed’s economic calendar). ^[12]
Tuesday, Dec. 30:FOMC minutes from the Dec. 9–10 Fed meeting are scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET (Federal Reserve calendar). ^[13]

Why the minutes matter right now: Reuters reports the Fed has cut rates by 75 basis points over its last three meetings of 2025, leaving the policy rate around 3.50%–3.75%, and investors are intensely focused on how many more cuts come next year and how unified (or split) policymakers are. ^[14]

Glenmede’s Michael Reynolds summed up the vibe: markets want more information to “handicap” the path of rate cuts. ^[15]

Cross-asset signals flashing on Wall Street’s dashboard: metals, oil, and AI

While U.S. equities ended Friday barely changed, other markets were anything but sleepy.

Precious metals: record highs and a “thin markets” warning

Reuters reported silver hit a record around $77.40/oz and gold touched an all-time high near $4,549.71/oz, citing expectations for Fed easing and safe-haven demand. ^[16]

Peter Grant of Zaner Metals explicitly tied part of the move to the year-end environment, warning about volatility “in thin markets” even as he described the broader trend as strong. ^[17]

For NYSE investors, this matters in two ways:

Mining and materials stocks can react quickly to metals spikes (and materials led Friday). ^[18]
Big moves in “defensive” assets can be a tell that parts of the market are still hedging tail risks even near record equity highs. ^[19]

AI and mega-cap tech: still the market’s gravity well, but with more scrutiny

One of the most watched developments feeding the AI narrative: Reuters reported Nvidia agreed to a non-exclusive license of inference technology from Groq and to hire Groq’s CEO and other executives, a deal structure that fits a broader “talent + tech, not a full acquisition” pattern across Big Tech. ^[20]

That matters because 2025’s rally has leaned heavily on AI optimism — and because investors are increasingly debating the return on AI spending, not just the scale of AI spending. ^[21]

2026 forecasts and strategist views: optimism, but with a higher bar

Zooming out, Reuters’ year-end outlook reporting captures the tension nicely: the market is on track for a third straight year of double-digit gains, but repeating that in 2026 likely requires “everything firing on all cylinders.” ^[22]

A few of the most market-moving forecast themes right now:

1) Earnings breadth needs to improve

Reuters cited LSEG earnings research head Tajinder Dhillon projecting S&P 500 earnings up more than 15% in 2026 after a strong 2025, with a bigger share of companies contributing — not just the mega-cap “Magnificent Seven.” ^[23]

Man Group’s Kristina Hooper emphasized that broader earnings participation would make double-digit returns more plausible. ^[24]

2) Valuations look “lofty,” so the market wants results

One reason earnings matter so much: valuations may not have much room to expand further without stronger fundamentals. Reuters flagged this as a core constraint on 2026 upside. ^[25]

3) The Fed remains the macro “boss level”

Reuters reported that investors see a strong 2026 path requiring inflation to cool enough for more cuts without tipping the economy into recession — the classic “soft landing, but keep the landing gear intact” problem. ^[26]

4) Wall Street targets: not uniform, but generally constructive

Reuters cited:

Sam Stovall (CFRA): a 7,400 year-end 2026 S&P 500 target (about +7% from then-current levels), while cautioning against expecting another “great” year. ^[27]
Deutsche Bank: a cited 8,000 target (roughly mid-teens upside from then-current levels). ^[28]

LPL Financial’s Jeff Buchbinder offered a clean risk framing: if markets lose confidence in the returns from AI investment, the year could skew flatter — or even modestly down. ^[29]

NYSE-specific developments: listings, ETFs, and market plumbing

Because the NYSE is more than a scoreboard — it’s also a capital-raising machine and a market-structure engine — a couple NYSE-specific threads are worth noting as 2025 closes.

NYSE’s 2025 listing and ETF snapshot

Intercontinental Exchange (which owns the NYSE) said in a Dec. 15 release that the NYSE:

Hosted seven of the 10 largest IPOs in 2025,
Represented the largest ETF marketplace with more than $10 trillion of AUM listed, and
Processed more than 1.1 trillion messages in a single day, while maintaining processing times “around 30 microseconds” (ICE’s statement). ^[30]

NYSE Group President Lynn Martin also pointed to streamlining disclosures and reversing the decline in the number of public companies as priorities going into 2026. ^[31]

Ongoing regulation and fee mechanics

On the regulatory side, the SEC recently posted a notice of a NYSE proposed rule change to amend its price list, with public comment deadlines extending into January. ^[32]

For most long-term investors, fee schedule mechanics aren’t a day-to-day driver — but these filings are part of the constant “plumbing work” that keeps markets operating predictably.

If you’re an investor: what to know before the next NYSE session

With the NYSE closed right now, the practical question becomes: what can change between now and Monday’s open, and how do you avoid getting surprised?

Expect thin liquidity and sharper micro-moves

Year-end trading often means wider spreads and faster air pockets, especially outside the most liquid mega-caps. Reuters’ volume comparison is a real-world hint: price action can look calm while the underlying market depth is thinner than usual. ^[33]

A boring-but-effective tactic in thin markets: use limit orders rather than market orders, particularly at the open.

Know the next holiday schedule now (so it doesn’t bite you later)

The NYSE’s regular core session is 9:30 a.m.–4:00 p.m. ET on trading days. ^[34]
New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026): NYSE is closed (official NYSE holiday calendar). ^[35]
New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025): stocks are expected to trade a full day, but bond markets are widely expected to close early (2:00 p.m. ET) based on SIFMA recommendations and holiday coverage. ^[36]

Put “Fed minutes day” on your calendar in ink

The Fed’s minutes drop Tuesday, Dec. 30 at 2:00 p.m. ET. In a market this rate-sensitive, that’s the kind of event that can move indexes quickly — even in a holiday week. ^[37]