Carvana Stock (CVNA) Latest: Weekend Update, Fresh Analyst Targets, and What to Watch Before Monday’s Open

NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 10:50 p.m. ET — Market closed

Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA) heads into the final full trading week of 2025 with a familiar mix of ingredients: a still-hot momentum narrative, a newly “institutionalized” shareholder base after its S&P 500 inclusion, and the kind of valuation that makes both bulls and bears speak in italics.

With U.S. equity markets closed for the weekend, investors are digesting Friday’s quiet, post-holiday tape and a batch of late-week commentary that frames a simple question for Monday’s open: is CVNA’s 2025 surge “done,” or just taking a breath before the calendar flips?

Where Carvana stock stands as markets pause

Carvana shares were last indicated at $438.47, down about 0.7% versus the prior close, after trading Friday between $436.74 and $446.39.

That range-bound action fit the broader mood. Reuters described Friday’s session as light-volume and largely catalyst-free, with major indexes little changed after a strong multi-day run. ^[1]

For Carvana specifically, the “market closed” weekend doesn’t mean “nothing happening.” It means the stock’s next meaningful price discovery will likely come from a combination of:

Sunday night futures and overall risk appetite into year-end, and
Monday morning positioning in high-beta names, where liquidity can be thinner than usual.

What’s new in the last 24–48 hours: the weekend read on CVNA

Even without a fresh Carvana press release in the last day, coverage around the stock kept moving—mostly in the form of year-end “what’s next” analysis and investor positioning.

1) Zacks/Nasdaq: The “can the rally extend into 2026?” framing (Dec. 26)
A Zacks commentary published on Nasdaq on Friday highlighted CVNA’s outperformance in 2025 (the piece pegged the stock up roughly 117% year to date) and emphasized Carvana’s operational scale and recent entry into the S&P 500. ^[2]

The analysis pointed back to Carvana’s record Q3 performance as the foundation for the bull case—higher unit volumes, revenue growth, and profitability—arguing those fundamentals (not just meme-stock energy) are what changed the market’s perception. ^[3]

2) Barchart syndication: Street targets cluster near the current tape (Dec. 27)
A Barchart.com article published Saturday morning called Carvana one of 2025’s standout performers and leaned on a bullish-tilting consensus snapshot. It cited an average price target around $452.59 (roughly low-single-digit upside from Friday’s level) while also noting higher-end targets into the $550 area. ^[4]

3) MarketBeat: institutional trimming + insider sales context (Dec. 27)
MarketBeat highlighted that Highland Capital Management LLC reduced its Carvana stake in Q3 (based on SEC disclosure) and also summarized insider transactions reported earlier in December. ^[5]

The “so what” here isn’t that a single holder trimmed—institutions rebalance constantly. It’s that, at year-end, investors tend to become more sensitive to who’s selling, how planned it was, and whether it signals anything about forward demand.

The bigger catalyst still echoing: Carvana’s S&P 500 inclusion

The defining structural change for CVNA in December was its addition to the S&P 500, effective before trading on Dec. 22, which tends to force buying from index-tracking funds and can change the shareholder mix. Reuters framed the move as the capstone of a dramatic turnaround narrative—one that pushed Carvana’s market value into the same conversation as much larger traditional automakers. ^[6]

In that Reuters reporting, Chris Beauchamp of IG Group called Carvana’s trajectory a “compelling story” of collapse-and-comeback, and suggested rate cuts could help keep consumer pressure easing. ^[7]
Reuters also cited Stephanie Link, chief investment strategist at Hightower Advisors, describing the stock as a long-term buy and saying pullbacks could be used to add. ^[8]
And Rick Meckler of Cherry Lane Investments pointed to a “loyal stock following” that believes the model can keep gaining share and improving profitability. ^[9]

Those aren’t minor details: CVNA is a stock where sentiment and positioning can move price as aggressively as fundamentals, especially around year-end.

Fundamentals recap: the numbers investors keep anchoring to

Carvana’s latest quarterly benchmark is still its Q3 2025 report, which the company described as record-setting:

Retail units sold:155,941 (+44% YoY)
Revenue:$5.647 billion (+55% YoY)
Net income:$263 million
Adjusted EBITDA:$637 million ^[10]

For outlook, the company said that—assuming a stable environment—it expected Q4 retail units sold above 150,000, and for the full year Adjusted EBITDA at or above the high end of its previously communicated $2.0–$2.2 billion range. ^[11]

That combination (volume + profitability) is why the debate around Carvana has shifted from “survival” to “how much is already priced in?”

Analyst forecasts: targets, upgrades, and the valuation argument

Depending on the data set and timing, analyst aggregates around CVNA vary slightly—but most paint the same picture: ratings skew positive, while average targets sit close to the current share price, implying analysts see upside primarily if execution stays strong and multiples remain elevated.

MarketWatch’s snapshot showed an average target price around $446.43 and an average recommendation of “Overweight” (27 ratings in that snapshot). ^[12]
Barchart’s syndicated piece cited an average target around $452.59, with higher-end targets into the $550 zone. ^[13]
Nasdaq also published a note referencing an average one-year target near $448.25, with a wide forecast range (low $333.30 to high $577.50 in that dataset). ^[14]

Recent-ish highlights that have shaped sentiment in December include:

UBS initiating coverage with a Buy and a $450 target (reported in multiple market news writeups). ^[15]
Wedbush raising its target to $500 and keeping an Outperform rating; the move was attributed to analyst Scott Devitt in a “The Fly” item carried by TipRanks. ^[16]
Evercore ISI lifting its target to $425 while maintaining an “In-Line” stance in a MarketBeat summary. ^[17]

The throughline: there are plenty of bulls, but many of them are effectively saying, “Carvana is executing—yet at this price, the next leg higher needs even more proof.”

Insider selling: what the filings actually show

In high-momentum stocks, insider sales often get louder headlines than they deserve, so the details matter.

Two insider transactions cited in recent coverage are backed by SEC Form 4 filings:

Michael E. Maroone (director) reported transactions dated Dec. 3, 2025, including sales around the $400 level; the filing also indicates activity tied to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan (a pre-scheduled plan). ^[18]
Thomas Taira (listed as President, Special Projects) reported transactions dated Dec. 12, 2025, including a sale at $475, also marked as executed under a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. ^[19]

The investor takeaway isn’t “insiders sold, therefore bearish.” It’s: check whether sales are planned, how large they are relative to holdings, and whether buying is also present. Planned sales can coexist with a bullish long-term view, but they can still pressure the stock if liquidity is thin.

Short interest and volatility: why CVNA can still whip around

Carvana was once a poster child for crowded short interest and violent squeezes. Reuters noted earlier this month that short interest had fallen to around the lowest in years as fundamentals strengthened. ^[20]

But “lower than the peak” doesn’t mean “low.” For example:

Fintel displayed short interest of ~14.24 million shares and short interest % float around 10.26%, with days-to-cover metrics that can vary depending on volume assumptions. ^[21]
FINVIZ also showed 14.24M shares short as of Dec. 15 and short float figures in the ~10–11% range. ^[22]

FINRA’s schedule underscores why these numbers can feel “lumpy”: official short interest is published on a twice-monthly cadence. ^[23]

Bottom line: CVNA is no longer a pure short-squeeze machine, but it remains a stock where positioning can amplify moves—up or down—especially around catalysts.

The macro setup into Monday: Fed minutes, thin liquidity, and year-end psychology

If you’re wondering why a used-car retailer’s stock might react to macro news next week, remember: Carvana is a high-beta, high-expectations name. Rates and risk appetite matter.

Reuters’ “Week Ahead” preview said investors are watching:

Fed minutes due Tuesday (Dec. 30) for clues on the rate path, after the Fed brought its benchmark to 3.50%–3.75% by cutting 75 bps over the final three meetings of 2025. ^[24]
The potential for year-end portfolio adjustments to create volatility in thin trading. ^[25]

In the same Reuters preview, Paul Nolte of Murphy & Sylvest Wealth Management pointed to bullish momentum, while Michael Reynolds of Glenmede highlighted how intensely markets are focused on the pace of 2026 rate cuts. ^[26]

Meanwhile, Reuters’ post-holiday session report quoted Ryan Detrick of Carson Group on the idea that markets were “catching their breath” after a strong stretch, and discussed the so-called “Santa Claus rally” period that traders watch into early January. ^[27]

What investors should know before the next session

With markets closed now, here’s what matters most going into Monday, Dec. 29:

Trading hours and liquidity realities
The NYSE’s core session runs 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET, with extended hours that can run later depending on venue; NYSE’s market info also outlines early/extended sessions. ^[28]
Nasdaq’s market-activity guidance for extended hours highlights pre-market (4:00–9:30 a.m. ET) and after-hours (4:00–8:00 p.m. ET) and warns about lower liquidity and potentially worse pricing—important if CVNA gaps on news or a macro headline. ^[29]

Key levels investors will be staring at
Carvana’s 52-week high (~$485.33) sits uncomfortably close to the current price for a stock that can move fast, while the mid-$430s area has recently acted as a near-term reference point in the tape. ^[30]

Calendar risk: the next big company checkpoint is earnings
Carvana has not confirmed its next earnings date, but multiple tracking calendars estimate Feb. 18, 2026 for the next report. ^[31]

Year-end schedule effects
Investopedia reported that stocks are expected to trade a full day on New Year’s Eve (Dec. 31), while markets will be closed on New Year’s Day (Jan. 1, 2026)—a setup that can concentrate volume into fewer sessions and occasionally exaggerate moves. ^[32]

The setup in one sentence

Carvana enters Monday with fundamentals that look dramatically stronger than the “2022 survival era,” but with a share price that leaves little room for sloppy execution—meaning the next catalyst (macro or company-specific) could matter more than usual for a stock built like a sports car on a frosty road.