NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 3:15 a.m. ET — Market closed (weekend)
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. stock is heading into the final trading stretch of 2025 with momentum—and a very “airline” mix of catalysts and risks that can move fast when liquidity is thin.
On Friday, Aeroméxico’s U.S.-listed American Depositary Shares (NYSE: AERO) finished at $22.91, up 3.29% on the day, according to market data services tracking the close. [1] A delayed after-hours quote later showed $22.47 as of 6:18 p.m. ET, reflecting how quickly the tape can soften when fewer traders are around. [2]
That price action landed in a broader backdrop of quiet, post-Christmas trading. Wall Street ended Friday’s session near flat in light volume, with few catalysts driving conviction—an environment where single-stock moves can look louder than usual. [3]
Why Aeroméxico stock is on more screens right now
Aeroméxico is still in the “newly public” phase of its market life—meaning a lot of investors are effectively building their first real-time opinion on valuation, competitive position, and regulatory overhang.
The company returned to public markets via a dual listing in November. In its IPO structure, each ADS represents 10 common shares, and Aeroméxico priced the global offering at $19.00 per ADS in the U.S. alongside a Mexican offering priced at Ps. 35.34 per share, with trading beginning on Nov. 6, 2025 under the ticker “AERO” on both the NYSE and Mexico’s BMV. [4]
Reuters reported the IPO raised about $222.8 million and valued the airline at roughly $2.8 billion, highlighting that the deal came alongside heightened U.S.–Mexico aviation scrutiny and specific questions around Aeroméxico’s partnership framework with Delta Air Lines. [5]
The last 24–48 hours: what actually changed
Because it’s a weekend session gap, the “newsflow” investors can act on immediately is mostly about where the stock closed, how risk appetite looks into Monday, and whether any headline risk breaks before the bell.
- Aeroméxico’s U.S. shares ended Friday higher at $22.91, capping a strong holiday-week push that also saw the stock trade up to $23.05 intraday, based on historical pricing tables. [6]
- U.S. markets were subdued on Friday in thin post-holiday trading, leaving investors looking ahead to the last few sessions of the year and the market’s psychology around year-end positioning. [7]
Meanwhile, in Mexico, Investing.com’s historical tape for the local listing shows the common shares around Ps. 40 on Dec. 26 (with light reported volume), underscoring that cross-listed liquidity can vary sharply by venue day to day. [8]
Fundamentals: what the company itself is telling the market
Aeroméxico’s most detailed recent “fundamentals reset” for investors came with its third-quarter 2025 results and guidance.
In its Q3 report, the company posted total revenue of about $1.4 billion for the quarter, an operating margin around 18%, and Adjusted EBITDAR margin of 31% (a profitability metric airlines use that adjusts for items like aircraft rent). Management also introduced 4Q25 and full-year 2025 guidance, pointing to a full-year adjusted EBITDAR margin of 29%–30% and an operating income margin of 15%–16%, alongside revenue and capacity ranges. [9]
For investors who like to anchor on filed financial statements, Aeroméxico’s interim financials furnished to the SEC show nine-month 2025 total revenue of $3.92 billion and operating income of $625 million (unaudited), providing a second lens on scale and profitability after restructuring. [10]
Forecasts and analyst outlook: why targets skew bullish
A big part of Aeroméxico’s December run has been driven by the sell-side “turning on” coverage after the IPO.
Multiple banks initiated coverage in mid-December with generally constructive stances and price targets well above the IPO price; one widely circulated example was Goldman Sachs initiating with a Buy rating and a $35 target, per Investing.com’s report. [11]
Compiled analyst tables also show a cluster of initiations around Dec. 17 with targets roughly in the mid-$20s to mid-$30s range—suggesting the Street is framing Aeroméxico as a post-restructuring airline with a profitability narrative, not just a cyclical travel trade. [12]
The risk that could dominate Monday (and honestly, all of January): Delta joint venture uncertainty
Here’s the part where airline stocks stop being “just numbers” and start being “policy meets profits.”
Aeroméxico and Delta have been challenging a U.S. government decision tied to their cooperation on U.S.–Mexico flights. Reuters previously reported the two airlines sued to challenge an order that they unwind a joint venture arrangement that lets them coordinate scheduling, pricing, and capacity decisions. [13]
In Reuters’ coverage of Aeroméxico’s IPO debut, Lukas Muehlbauer, a research analyst at IPOX, flagged that investors appeared to be looking past “immediate regulatory concerns,” but also cautioned the dispute could weigh on the stock until the appeal is resolved because it may affect important U.S. routes and revenue streams. [14]
Competitive pressure is also rising in Mexico
Even if the Delta/Aeroméxico regulatory fight is the headline risk, the competitive chessboard at home is shifting too.
Reuters reported that Mexico’s two biggest low-cost carriers, Volaris and Viva Aerobus, agreed to merge into a new holding company structure (subject to approvals), a move that could reshape domestic pricing and capacity decisions over time—right where Aeroméxico competes most aggressively for share. [15]
What investors should know before the next session
Because the market is closed now, the practical question is: what can change before Monday’s open, and what should you have ready?
First: expect thinner liquidity and sharper reactions. Friday’s session was already characterized by light, post-holiday conditions across U.S. equities, which can amplify moves in newer IPO names. [16]
Second: watch the calendar. U.S. stock markets will have a full trading day on New Year’s Eve (Wednesday, Dec. 31), but will be closed on New Year’s Day (Thursday, Jan. 1, 2026)—useful context for anyone managing entries/exits into year-end. [17]
Third: the Monday setup for AERO is basically three questions:
- Does any weekend regulatory or legal headline drop related to U.S.–Mexico aviation cooperation? (That’s the “gap risk.”) [18]
- Does the broader market keep its year-end footing after Friday’s quiet close, or does positioning get choppy into the last sessions of 2025? [19]
- Do investors continue to lean into the “new coverage / bullish targets” narrative—or do they start demanding more company-specific datapoints (traffic trends, yields, costs) to justify the premium? [20]
Into Monday, Aeroméxico stock sits in a classic post-IPO tension: optimistic forward targets and restructuring-era profitability on one side, and regulatory headline risk plus competitive shifts on the other. That’s not a problem—it’s just the kind of story that can reprice in minutes when the next headline hits.
References
1. finance.yahoo.com, 2. www.marketwatch.com, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.globenewswire.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. markets.financialcontent.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.investing.com, 9. www.globenewswire.com, 10. www.sec.gov, 11. au.investing.com, 12. finviz.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.investopedia.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. finviz.com
