NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 9:29 a.m. ET — Market closed
Tesla, Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) heads into the final stretch of 2025 with U.S. equity markets shut for the weekend, but the narrative around the stock is anything but quiet. Tesla shares last finished at $475.19 on Friday, down 2.10% on the day, after trading between $473.82 and $488.90 on heavy volume.
With the next regular session set for Monday, investors are weighing two competing forces that have defined TSLA trading into year-end: autonomy/robotaxi optionality (the story bulls want to own) versus deliveries, margins, and regulatory scrutiny (the realities bears keep circling). [1]
Broader market tone is supportive: Wall Street ended Friday’s post-Christmas session near all-time highs in light volume, with strategists pointing to the seasonally positive “Santa Claus rally” window into early January. [2]
Tesla stock price check: where TSLA stands heading into Monday
Tesla’s latest close places the stock near the upper end of its recent trading range. On Investing.com’s aggregated analyst page, Tesla’s 52-week range is listed at roughly $214 to $499, with the stock near $475—close to that upper band. [3]
Wall Street’s consensus targets remain mixed:
- Average 12-month price target: about $399
- High target:$600
- Low target:$120
- Consensus rating: “Neutral,” with a split across buy/hold/sell recommendations [4]
That gap—TSLA trading above the average target while sentiment stays “Neutral”—helps explain why the stock can react sharply to headlines around robotaxis and AI progress, even as delivery forecasts soften. [5]
Fresh headlines in the last 24–48 hours: robotaxi narrative meets a real-world stress test
Over the past day, the robotaxi theme has accelerated across the broader news cycle, not only on Tesla-specific updates but also on what’s happening to competitors in the real world.
1) Robotaxis are going mainstream—before trust is fully earned
A Business Insider deep dive published Sunday argues robotaxis “went viral” in 2025, highlighting how cultural visibility is rising faster than public trust. The piece says Tesla’s ride-hailing service has “driven the conversation,” while also noting Tesla has not provided a fully autonomous public ride as of this weekend and has only recently shown limited examples of operation without a monitor in the front seats. [6]
For TSLA investors, that framing matters because it underscores a key market question: Is the stock pricing in widespread autonomy adoption faster than regulators—and riders—will allow? [7]
2) Waymo’s blackout incident raises “crisis readiness” questions—pulling Tesla into the same debate
Reuters reported Saturday that a San Francisco power outage on Dec. 20 caused Waymo robotaxis to stall at intersections as traffic lights failed, renewing calls for tighter rules around remote operations (“teleoperation”) and emergency response across the industry—including Tesla. [8]
The Reuters piece quotes Philip Koopman, a Carnegie Mellon University autonomous-technology expert, warning that regulators can’t ignore failure modes during large-scale events. It also quotes Missy Cummings, director of the George Mason University Autonomy and Robotics Center, saying: “The federal government needs to regulate remote operations.” [9]
Even though the incident involved Waymo, the takeaway for TSLA is direct: as Tesla pushes toward removing in-car safety monitors, the bar for crisis behavior and remote oversight is getting higher—not lower. [10]
3) Tesla’s year-end autonomy messaging is ramping up
In an Investors.com report published this weekend, Tesla is described as intensifying robotaxi/FSD messaging ahead of Elon Musk’s self-imposed year-end timeline for safety monitor–free robotaxi operations in Austin, with the article tying the autonomy catalyst to near-term stock sentiment. [11]
Delivery forecasts and “does the market still care?”—the next major catalyst is Jan. 2
While robotaxi headlines are loud, deliveries are the hard data point that arrives first.
An Investing.com roundup of analyst expectations says:
- New Street Research expects Q4 deliveries between 415,000 and 435,000 (below consensus around ~440,000). [12]
- UBS analyst Joseph Spak forecasts 415,000 deliveries, about 5% below Visible Alpha consensus, and notes policy-driven demand pull-forwards around U.S. incentives. [13]
- Spak expects Tesla to report Q4 deliveries on Jan. 2. [14]
- New Street analyst Pierre Ferragu attributes weakness to pull-forwards from Q3 and describes a U.S. “air-pocket,” also flagging margin pressure. [15]
Perhaps the most market-relevant line in that Investing.com report isn’t a number—it’s the framing. Spak wrote that the question increasingly becomes whether investors care more about “robo-taxi and Optimus developments” than quarterly delivery prints. [16]
That theme is echoed in a separate Investing.com analysis piece arguing Tesla is increasingly being valued less like an automaker and more like a platform, while still depending on the vehicle business for cash generation to fund AI ambitions. [17]
Expert and analyst perspective: why autonomy headlines keep moving TSLA
Reuters captured the dynamic earlier this month when Tesla shares reacted to driverless-testing headlines. Seth Goldstein, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said: “The market is cheering the progress.” [18]
That helps explain why TSLA can remain resilient—even when delivery expectations soften—so long as the market believes Tesla is compounding an autonomy advantage. But it also raises the risk of sharp reversals if regulators, safety incidents, or timelines undermine that confidence. [19]
Regulatory and safety overhang: not new, but still price-relevant into 2026
Even as the autonomy story dominates, Tesla continues to face regulatory attention on safety and marketing claims:
- NHTSA Model 3 door release probe: Reuters reported the U.S. auto safety regulator opened a defect investigation into about 179,071 model-year 2022 Model 3 vehicles over concerns emergency door release controls may be difficult to locate or identify in an emergency. [20]
- California self-driving marketing case: An Associated Press report (via WTOP) says California regulators are threatening a 30-day suspension of Tesla’s sales license in the state unless Tesla changes marketing for its driver-assistance features after an administrative law judge found prior messaging could mislead consumers; the report says Tesla would have a 90-day window to make changes to avoid the suspension. [21]
For TSLA holders, these two threads converge on a single issue: Tesla’s autonomy upside is inseparable from regulatory credibility. Any development that constrains how Tesla markets or deploys these systems can ripple into valuation. [22]
If you’re watching TSLA for the next session: what to know before Monday’s open
Because it’s Sunday and markets are closed, the immediate task is preparation—not reaction. Here are the most practical items investors are tracking before the next regular session:
- Holiday-thinned trading can exaggerate moves
Reuters described Friday’s tape as light-volume and “catching our breath” after a strong run, a setup that can amplify single-stock volatility into year-end positioning. [23] - Macro calendar is busy—even without major earnings
Investopedia notes a holiday-shortened week with U.S. stock markets closed on New Year’s Day (Thursday) and highlights upcoming releases including pending home sales (Monday), Case-Shiller (Tuesday), and December FOMC minutes (Tuesday), plus jobless claims (Wednesday). [24] - Tesla deliveries are the near-term “truth serum” (Jan. 2)
The analyst consensus cluster around ~415k–435k deliveries, with explicit expectations that Tesla reports on Jan. 2, making it a likely volatility event for TSLA—especially given how far the stock is from the average Street price target. [25] - Autonomy headlines remain the swing factor
Weekend coverage keeps emphasizing that robotaxis are expanding culturally and commercially, while incidents like Waymo’s outage feed a regulatory debate that directly touches Tesla’s own scaling plans. [26]
Bottom line
Tesla stock enters the final trading days of 2025 in a market environment that has been broadly constructive for megacaps—but with TSLA’s own price action still tethered to a high-stakes tug-of-war: robotaxi momentum and AI optionality versus delivery/margin reality and regulatory scrutiny.
When markets reopen Monday, investors will likely treat any credible autonomy progress as the near-term catalyst, while Jan. 2 deliveries stand out as the next hard checkpoint that can either validate the “the market doesn’t care about deliveries” thesis—or force a reset in expectations. [27]
References
1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.investing.com, 6. www.businessinsider.com, 7. www.businessinsider.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.investors.com, 12. www.investing.com, 13. www.investing.com, 14. www.investing.com, 15. www.investing.com, 16. www.investing.com, 17. www.investing.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. wtop.com, 22. wtop.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.investopedia.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.businessinsider.com, 27. www.investing.com
