NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:18 p.m. ET — Market closed
Silver is holding near record territory on Sunday with U.S. stock markets closed for the weekend, after an explosive late-week surge that has turned the white metal into one of the most watched trades heading into year-end and the first sessions of 2026.
In midday New York trading, spot silver was around $79.3 per ounce (bid/ask roughly $79.27/$79.39), according to Kitco’s live quote. [1] Investors tracking XAG/USD saw similarly elevated levels on Investing.com, underscoring how firmly silver is hovering near its recent peak after a sharp run-up. [2]
While the NYSE and Nasdaq are closed today, silver itself does not “sleep” the way stocks do: CME Globex silver futures resume trading Sunday evening, which can set the tone for Monday’s open in silver-linked ETFs and miners. [3]
What’s driving the silver rally: rates, geopolitics, and a market suddenly worried about supply
Silver’s move has been turbocharged by a familiar macro cocktail—expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve easing in 2026, a softer dollar, and geopolitical tension—but the latest leg higher has also been fueled by increasingly specific supply narratives.
Reuters reported Friday that silver pushed into uncharted territory as precious metals broadly hit records, with spot silver jumping sharply and notching a massive year-to-date gain—outperforming gold by a wide margin in 2025. [4] In that report, Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, tied the late-year volatility to a thin market environment and the macro backdrop, while also warning that year-end profit-taking remains a risk even as the broader trend has stayed powerful. [5]
That “thin markets” theme fits the broader tape. On Friday, Wall Street traded with post-holiday calm—a light-volume session with major indices near all-time highs—as traders entered the seasonal “Santa Claus rally” window that often shapes sentiment into early January. [6]
China’s silver export rules for 2026–2027 add a new supply storyline
One of the most important developments that has caught investors’ attention is China’s newly published framework for managing state-trading exports of silver for the 2026–2027 period.
In an official Ministry of Commerce announcement (商务部公告2025年第68号), China laid out application requirements and procedures for companies seeking qualification to export silver under state trading. The document includes thresholds and compliance requirements—for example, for newly applying silver producers it references annual output levels (including a threshold of 80 tons, with a lower threshold for western regions) along with quality/environment management certifications and other regulatory conditions. [7]
That policy backdrop has been circulating through market commentary as traders try to assess how much of the recent jump is a classic momentum move—and how much might reflect a genuine tightening in the availability of exportable metal.
Separately, The Guardian reported that the surge in silver prices has been accompanied by rising anxiety about industrial supply chains and the role silver plays across electrification and computing infrastructure. The paper highlighted a social media warning from Elon Musk—“This is not good. Silver is needed in many industrial processes”—as well as analyst commentary framing the move as potentially bubble-like. [8]
“Bubble” talk vs. fundamentals: why this market can stay hot—and still be dangerous
Silver is uniquely prone to violent moves because it straddles two worlds:
- A monetary/safe-haven trade (often tracking real yields, the dollar, and risk sentiment), and
- An industrial input (tied to manufacturing, electronics, solar, EVs, and data centers)
That mix can be combustible when positioning gets crowded.
The Guardian cited Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, describing a “generational bubble” dynamic as capital pours into precious metals, while still acknowledging the underlying story of tight supply versus demand. [9] Reuters has also emphasized the role of supply deficits and industrial demand alongside investment inflows and momentum buying in powering silver’s run. [10]
Still, even bullish strategists frequently flag the same risk: silver can correct hard and fast.
In a Reuters analysis earlier this month, Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis at StoneX, warned that the rally has been heavily investment-driven—an environment where upside can extend, but reversals can also be steep. In the same report, Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree, described the setup as supportive given demand and inventory dynamics, while Reuters also noted broader concerns about volatility in this market. [11]
How investors are gaining exposure: spot, futures, ETFs, coins—and why it matters for Monday
A key practical issue for retail investors is that silver’s “price” depends on the vehicle you’re using.
Reuters’ explainer on silver trading highlighted that:
- The major physical market is London OTC, supported by bullion held in large bank vaults; Reuters cited 27,187 tons of silver in London vaults as of end-November 2025.
- Futures trade on major exchanges including CME Group’s COMEX in New York.
- And ETFs trade on stock exchanges; Reuters pointed to the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) as the largest, holding about 529 million ounces of silver (worth roughly $39 billion at the time of reporting). [12]
That distinction becomes crucial when the stock market is closed: SLV and silver miners don’t trade on Sunday, but silver’s underlying market can still move. The result is that ETFs and miners can gap at Monday’s open—up or down—depending on what happens when futures reopen Sunday evening and through the overnight session.
Near-term technical levels: $80 in focus, but momentum is already stretched
With silver sitting around the high-$70s, psychological round numbers are doing extra work. On Friday, Reuters quoted Zaner Metals’ Peter Grant pointing to $80 as a plausible near-term objective in the late-year run. [13]
Short-term technical commentary has turned more aggressive. FX Leaders wrote Sunday that silver closed the week near $79.30, framed the move as a breakout, and pointed to upside targets in the $81–$82 area—while also noting extremely overbought momentum readings (RSI cited near the high-80s). [14]
DailyForex, in its weekly outlook, called silver’s rise “wild” and “meteoric,” arguing the price action remains strongly bullish but warning that silver is behaving more like a high-volatility momentum asset than a traditional precious metal—an argument for tighter risk management and trailing stops rather than complacent buy-and-hold positioning at these levels. [15]
Investors should also watch policy risk in the U.S.: “critical minerals” and tariffs
Beyond China, U.S. policy has also been creeping into the silver narrative.
A Reuters commodities column earlier this year noted that the U.S. critical minerals list was expanding under a Section 232 investigation into critical minerals import dependency, with the report and any potential tariff actions tied to that process. In that discussion, Reuters explicitly mentioned silver among the metals under consideration and flagged the broader risk that “hybrid” metals could be vulnerable to tariff turbulence, citing Citi analysts on how markets may be underpricing certain tariff risks. [16]
For silver traders, policy risk matters because it can influence:
- where inventories are stored,
- which region sets the marginal price, and
- how quickly physical supply can respond to price spikes.
What to know before the next session: Monday’s “gap risk” playbook
Because U.S. equities are closed today, here’s what silver investors should keep in mind before markets reopen:
1) Futures reopen first—expect volatility before stocks open.
CME Globex silver futures begin the new week Sunday evening, meaning price discovery can happen well before the first trade in SLV or silver miners on Monday morning. [17]
2) Silver ETFs and miners can gap.
If you hold SLV or mining equities, your first chance to transact will be Monday’s regular stock session—after a full overnight cycle of silver price movement. Reuters’ explainer on ETFs is a good refresher on how these products track underlying metal and why ETF pricing can briefly diverge under stress. [18]
3) Liquidity is still thin into year-end.
Reuters has repeatedly pointed to thin holiday trading conditions across markets, which can exaggerate price moves and whipsaws—especially in a momentum-heavy market like silver. [19]
4) Watch the macro trio: the dollar, yields, and risk sentiment.
Silver has been responding to the same macro inputs driving gold—Fed policy expectations, the U.S. dollar, and geopolitical headlines—while still carrying its own industrial-supply storyline. [20]
5) Respect position sizing.
When silver is making moves that traders more often associate with high-beta equities, the biggest risk isn’t being “wrong” on direction—it’s being right but overleveraged.
Bottom line
Silver’s price action is sending a loud message: the market is treating the metal as both a macro hedge and a strategic industrial input, and—at least for now—buyers are willing to pay up amid policy uncertainty and supply anxiety.
But with prices near $79 and momentum stretched, the next phase may be defined as much by risk management as by the bullish narrative—especially as futures reopen Sunday evening and stock-linked silver products resume trading Monday. [21]
References
1. www.kitco.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.cmegroup.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.mofcom.gov.cn, 8. www.theguardian.com, 9. www.theguardian.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.fxleaders.com, 15. www.dailyforex.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.cmegroup.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.kitco.com
