EV Stocks Watch: Tesla Robotaxi Deadline Nears as Wall Street Eyes 7,000

NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:38 p.m. ET — Market Closed

U.S. equity markets are closed Sunday, but EV stocks are heading into the final full trading days of 2025 with a familiar mix of momentum, macro cross-currents, and headline-driven volatility. With index futures set to reopen Sunday evening and year-end positioning in full swing, investors are preparing for a Monday session where electric-vehicle names could swing sharply on thin liquidity and fast-moving news flow. ^[1]

The backdrop is broadly supportive for risk assets: the S&P 500 has been hovering near record territory and is within striking distance of the 7,000 milestone, while traders are watching for signs that year-end rotations and light holiday volumes could amplify moves in both directions. That matters for EV stocks—many of which trade like high-beta “story” equities, rising quickly when sentiment is strong and retreating just as fast when risk appetite fades. ^[2]

Below is what’s driving EV stocks right now—based on the most material news, forecasts, and analyst commentary from the past 24 to 48 hours—and what investors should keep on their radar before the next opening bell.

The market setup: record highs, rotation, and a Fed catalyst

As Wall Street closes out 2025, investors are increasingly focused on whether the rally can extend into year-end and whether leadership broadens beyond mega-cap tech. Reuters reports the S&P 500 is on track for its eighth straight month of gains—its longest such streak since 2017–2018—and notes that “minutes from the Federal Reserve’s most recent meeting” are a key event in the holiday-shortened week ahead, alongside year-end portfolio adjustments that can spark volatility in light volume. ^[3]

This context is especially relevant for EV stocks:

If the market’s rotation into “non-tech” areas continues, EV names that have been re-rated as “AI/autonomy” plays could see sentiment shift quickly.
If rate expectations change after the Fed minutes, capital-intensive companies—especially pre-profit EV makers—can reprice fast.

Ameriprise chief market strategist Anthony Saglimbene told Reuters investors are increasingly buying into the view that the economy is on solid footing, which has helped markets weather roadblocks this year. That kind of macro confidence can lift speculative corners of the market—until it doesn’t. ^[4]

Tesla dominates EV-stock psychology—again

No company shapes the EV-stock trade more than Tesla, and this weekend it’s not just about vehicles—it’s about autonomy, AI, and whether Tesla can meet a highly watched year-end milestone.

Robotaxi deadline and a marketing ramp-up

Investors.com reports Tesla has been stepping up messaging around Full Self-Driving (FSD) as Elon Musk’s self-imposed year-end target approaches for launching safety monitor–free robotaxis in Austin. The report points to Musk discussing an “unsupervised” Model Y ride and Tesla AI lead Ashok Elluswamy sharing video evidence of driverless tests. ^[5]

This matters because Tesla’s stock narrative has increasingly shifted from near-term EV demand to a longer-duration autonomy thesis. When Tesla headlines tilt toward robotaxis, the entire EV cohort often trades in sympathy—especially Rivian and other “next Tesla” names.

Deliveries: the near-term reality check

Even with robotaxi buzz, the next hard catalyst is still deliveries. Investors.com notes Tesla is expected to report Q4 2025 deliveries around Jan. 2, with analysts forecasting a year-over-year drop and citing pressure across key markets. ^[6]

Separately, another Investors.com report highlights that delivery estimates have been moving down, with FactSet expecting 449,000 deliveries (a year-over-year decline) and additional revisions from major firms—illustrating how quickly the near-term fundamentals can re-enter the conversation. ^[7]

The bullish road map: Dan Ives and the “defining year” thesis

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives—one of Tesla’s most closely followed bulls—has framed 2026 as a “defining year” as Tesla tries to translate autonomy ambition into real-world execution. Investors.com reports Ives expects Tesla’s strategy shift toward AI/autonomy to drive the next leg of the story, with Tesla eyeing an eventual $3 trillion valuation and pushing toward broader robotaxi deployment. ^[8]

For Tesla investors, that sets up a classic tension going into Monday:

Near-term: deliveries, pricing, and demand.
Long-term: autonomy progress (and proof points that regulators and the public will accept).

Robotaxis: Waymo’s outage is a warning sign for the whole autonomy trade

If Tesla’s robotaxi push is the upside catalyst, Alphabet-owned Waymo’s recent disruption is the cautionary counterweight.

A Reuters analysis details how a Waymo service outage in San Francisco raised fresh questions about scaling driverless ride-hailing safely and reliably. The report includes pointed warnings from autonomy experts—Carnegie Mellon professor Philip Koopman and George Mason University professor Missy Cummings—underscoring that even leading systems can face operational failures and that regulation of remote operations is a major unresolved issue. ^[9]

Why EV-stock investors should care:

Autonomy risk is sector risk. Any headline that dents confidence in robotaxis can hit Tesla’s premium narrative and spill over into other EV names priced for autonomy upside.
Regulation can move the goalposts. Even incremental rules around safety drivers, remote monitoring, or operational design domains could impact timelines and unit economics.

In practical terms, Monday’s EV-stock tape may treat autonomy headlines as “macro news” for the group—similar to how rates or oil prices can swing the entire complex.

Rivian: the “AI stock” angle gains volume into year-end

Rivian has been one of the most sentiment-sensitive EV names, and it’s increasingly being discussed less as a pure EV manufacturer and more as an AI/autonomy platform.

A Nasdaq.com column (from The Motley Fool) argues investors are beginning to reframe Rivian as an “AI stock,” pointing to a valuation gap versus Tesla and emphasizing how quickly AI progress is changing the autonomy timeline. The piece quotes Raquel Urtasun, CEO of self-driving firm Waabi, describing a “massive leap in AI” that is enabling smarter end-to-end systems and improved generalization on-road. ^[10]

Whether investors agree with that framing or not, it’s important because it shows what’s moving marginal buyers:

Multiple expansion can happen fast when a company is re-bucketed from “auto manufacturing” to “AI platform.”
Narratives can outrun fundamentals—especially during year-end liquidity pockets.

For Rivian specifically, investors will likely be watching for any incremental autonomy partnerships, software margin updates, or production/ramp commentary heading into early 2026—all items that can reprice the stock quickly even without fresh delivery numbers on the day.

Lucid: a mainstream pivot, a make-or-break price point

Lucid remains one of the most polarizing EV stocks because it sits at the intersection of ambitious product plans and heavy execution risk.

TipRanks reports Lucid is aiming to take on Tesla’s Model Y with a lower-priced electric crossover (internally referred to as “Project Midsize”), targeted for late 2026 production at around $50,000. The report says Lucid is looking to make the pricing work by pairing its Atlas drive unit with a smaller, cheaper battery pack while still targeting more than 300 miles of range, and notes Wall Street’s current consensus is broadly “Hold” with an average price target cited at $17 per share. ^[11]

For EV-stock investors, Lucid’s update highlights two broader themes:

The market is rewarding credible plans for the sub-$50k segment, where volume lives—if the company can finance the path.
Product road maps alone may not be enough in 2026 if funding conditions tighten or if demand indicators weaken.

China EV stocks: Nio and XPeng flash contrasting signals

While U.S. EV narratives often revolve around autonomy and software, China EV names frequently trade on demand signals, export strategy, and policy support.

Nio: a bounce, but still well off highs

MarketWatch reports Nio’s U.S.-listed ADR rose 3.87% Friday to close at $5.10, outperforming a slightly negative broader session, and notes the stock remains well below its 52-week high. ^[12]

That kind of move can attract short-term momentum traders into Monday—particularly if U.S. risk sentiment stays strong and China EV headlines remain constructive.

XPeng: international expansion headlines

XPeng drew attention on expansion news. Investing.com reports XPeng shares rose after the company announced its official entry into Qatar, highlighted plans to introduce models to the market, and pointed to broader Middle East and Africa footprint-building, including a regional parts warehouse in Dubai and new showrooms in multiple cities. ^[13]

For investors, this is a reminder that China EV makers increasingly need credible overseas growth lanes as domestic competition remains intense.

Battery and supply-chain news: the underappreciated EV-stock driver

EV stocks don’t move only on car news. Batteries, incentives, and supplier health can shift profit outlooks—and the past two days delivered meaningful signals.

China battery demand warning for early 2026

Reuters reports Cui Dongshu, secretary general of China’s passenger car association, warned that demand for China’s lithium batteries could “slump” in early 2026 on expectations of weaker domestic EV sales and slowing battery exports. The report also cites UBS analyst Yishu Yan on risks tied to U.S. restrictions around projects receiving investment tax credits that involve designated “foreign entities of concern.” ^[14]

Implications:

Battery leaders (and EV makers reliant on their pricing) could see margin pressure or inventory adjustments.
Policy-driven demand shifts can cause abrupt order changes that ripple into EV production schedules.

LG Energy Solution cancels a major order; Ford’s pullback reverberates

Reuters reports LG Energy Solution canceled a 3.9 trillion won battery contract with Freudenberg Battery Power Systems after Freudenberg scrapped plans for its battery business, and notes this comes shortly after LGES lost a separate battery deal when Ford terminated an EV battery supply agreement. The Reuters report also references Ford taking a $19.5 billion writedown and scrapping several EV models amid policy changes and weakening EV demand. ^[15]

For EV-stock investors, this is a direct reminder that:

Demand softness can surface first in supplier contracts.
Legacy automaker EV strategies remain in flux, which can reshape competitive dynamics for pure-play EV makers and the supply chain alike.

What investors should know before Monday’s session

With markets closed today, the most practical edge comes from knowing what can gap EV stocks at Monday’s open—and what signals might be “real” versus liquidity noise.

1) Watch futures and year-end flows.
Index futures are set to reopen Sunday evening, and year-end positioning plus light volumes can exaggerate moves—especially in high-beta EV names. ^[16]

2) Tesla headlines can move the whole group.
Any weekend update tied to the Austin robotaxi timeline, FSD performance claims, or regulators can ripple across EV stocks, not just TSLA. ^[17]

3) Keep one eye on deliveries—even in an “AI story” market.
Tesla’s delivery report around the start of January is a near-term anchor for valuation debates, especially with estimates in flux. ^[18]

4) China demand and incentive shifts are creeping back into the narrative.
Warnings on early-2026 battery demand and phased-out incentives can affect not only China EV names but also global suppliers and sentiment on EV adoption. ^[19]

5) Expect volatility to be higher than usual in the final sessions of 2025.
With the S&P 500 near record levels and the Fed minutes ahead, even routine headlines can trigger outsized swings—especially in EV stocks where positioning can be crowded and conviction can be narrative-driven. ^[20]

As EV investing closes out 2025, the takeaway is straightforward: the market is rewarding autonomy and AI ambition, but it is still quick to punish weak demand signals, policy shifts, and execution slip-ups. Monday’s open will be less about long-term dreams and more about which EV stories feel most credible in the very next session.