NEW YORK, December 29, 2025, 5:36 PM ET — After-hours
- Coinbase shares fell about 1.3% in late trading as an analyst warned of softer crypto volumes.
- Needham cut its price target to $290 from $400 while keeping a buy rating.
- Bitcoin hovered near $87,000 as traders looked ahead to Fed minutes and jobless claims.
Coinbase Global shares fell about 1.3% to $233.77 in late after-hours trading on Monday after Needham cut its price target on the crypto exchange to $290 from $400. “Retail volumes typically remain muted until momentum returns,” Needham analyst John Todaro wrote. 1
The call matters because Coinbase’s results are closely tied to how actively customers trade crypto. The company runs a platform for retail and institutional clients and sells both transaction products and subscription-and-services offerings, making trading activity a key swing factor for revenue from quarter to quarter. 2
Bitcoin was last down about 0.4% at roughly $87,200, after an intraday range that kept it below earlier highs. When crypto prices and volatility cool, traders often step back, reducing the trading “volume” that drives exchange fee revenue.
Other crypto-linked names also traded lower. Strategy fell about 2.2%, while trading platform Robinhood slid roughly 0.6% and bitcoin miner Marathon Digital was down about 1.1%.
Broader risk appetite was also softer into the final week of the year. Wall Street’s main indexes ended lower on Monday, and investors were watching minutes from the Federal Reserve’s previous meeting and weekly jobless claims in an otherwise data-light week, a Reuters report said. 3
Price targets are analysts’ estimates of where a stock should trade over the next year, not a guarantee. Needham’s cut signaled more caution on near-term activity even as the firm kept a bullish rating.
For Coinbase, the immediate question is whether crypto trading stays subdued into early 2026. Thin holiday liquidity can amplify moves, but sustained weakness in customer activity would be harder for investors to dismiss.
Coinbase has pushed to diversify beyond spot crypto trading, including building up subscription and services revenue. Investors have tended to reward that mix shift when trading slows, but the stock still trades as a high-beta proxy for crypto sentiment.
Traders are watching whether bitcoin can stabilize and whether volatility returns, which typically pulls retail traders back into the market. Any pickup in volatility tends to show up quickly in exchange volumes and spreads.
The next catalyst is likely to come from the macro calendar and the tape: Fed signals, risk appetite in tech, and the direction of bitcoin. Analyst revisions and year-end positioning flows will also be in focus as markets head into the first sessions of 2026.
For now, Coinbase’s shares are holding above the day’s lows, but the tone remains cautious — with investors looking for evidence that trading momentum is returning, not just that prices are off their highs.
