NEW YORK, December 30, 2025, 13:24 ET — Regular session
- Dow off 0.12% with Wall Street’s main indexes little changed in subdued, late-year trading
- Financials and some tech names weigh, while communication services find support on a Meta AI deal
- Federal Reserve minutes later today are the next catalyst investors are watching
The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower on Tuesday as investors kept positions tight ahead of Federal Reserve minutes in the final sessions of the year. The blue-chip index was down 57.44 points, or 0.12%, at 48,404.49 by 1:24 p.m. ET, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were little changed, according to LSEG data. 1
The muted trade matters now because year-end conditions can distort price action. With many desks lightly staffed and portfolios being rebalanced, even modest buying or selling can push indexes around more than usual.
The next clear catalyst arrives later in the session: minutes from the Fed’s Dec. 9-10 policy meeting, due at 2 p.m. ET. The central bank’s quarter-point cut to a 3.50%-3.75% target range drew three dissents — Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee opposed any cut, while Governor Stephen Miran favored a larger half-point reduction — and the minutes are expected to show how wide the policy split is heading into 2026. 2
Communication services provided a pocket of support after Meta Platforms said on Monday it would acquire artificial intelligence startup Manus, lifting the stock about 1.1%. “It’s just a healthy rebalancing of allocations more so than an emotionally driven sell-off,” said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide, as investors rotated after a tech-led run that took the S&P 500 to a record high last week. The Dow and S&P 500 are set for their eighth consecutive month of gains, their longest such streak since 2017, Reuters reported. 3
Inside the Dow, decliners included Goldman Sachs, IBM and Cisco Systems, which sat among the session’s biggest laggards on the index’s component list. The Dow is a price-weighted index — meaning higher-priced shares move the index more than lower-priced shares — unlike market-cap-weighted benchmarks such as the S&P 500. 4
In rates, benchmark Treasury yields turned higher, with the 10-year yield around 4.13% in earlier trade. Higher yields can pressure stock valuations by lifting the return investors can earn in bonds without taking equity risk. 5
Tuesday’s drift followed a weaker Monday close, when the Dow fell 249.04 points, or 0.51%, to 48,461.93 as heavyweight technology shares pulled back from last week’s gains. The S&P 500 lost 0.35% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.50% in that session, Reuters reported. 6
Some investors are also tracking the “Santa Claus rally,” a seasonal pattern tied to the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. It is widely watched on Wall Street, but it is not a rule — year-end repositioning can overwhelm seasonal tendencies. 7
Traders will parse the Fed minutes for clues on whether officials are leaning toward a near-term pause, and what conditions would need to change to justify further easing. A basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point, and small shifts in rate expectations can ripple quickly into financial shares and the broader market.
After the minutes, the macro calendar starts to fill up in early January, beginning with weekly jobless claims and construction spending on Jan. 2, followed by the ISM manufacturing survey on Jan. 5. Investors also have the ADP employment report on Jan. 7 and the U.S. payrolls report on Jan. 9 on deck, according to the New York Fed’s economic indicators calendar. 8
Until fresh catalysts arrive, traders say holiday-thin conditions may keep the Dow range-bound, but also vulnerable to abrupt swings when flows hit the tape. For now, banks and a handful of high-priced names remain the main levers on intraday direction.
With the Dow still close to recent highs, investors are watching whether the afternoon Fed minutes spark a break from the narrow range — or simply confirm that markets are marking time into the year-end close.
