NEW YORK, December 31, 2025, 16:10 ET — After-hours.
- Tesla shares fell nearly 1% in late U.S. trading on Wednesday.
- Investors are bracing for Tesla’s quarterly delivery report due Friday after the company flagged a downbeat analyst consensus.
- Year-end trading was thin heading into the New Year holiday.
Tesla shares dipped on Wednesday as investors positioned for Tesla’s quarterly delivery update and weighed an unusually downbeat compilation of analyst forecasts posted by the company. Tesla was down 0.9% at $450.53 in late trade.
The focus is on deliveries — vehicles handed over to customers — a key near-term gauge of demand for Tesla’s core car business. Tesla is expected to report fourth-quarter and full-year production and delivery numbers on Friday; analysts polled by Visible Alpha see about 432,810 deliveries for the quarter, down roughly 13% from a year earlier, while Tesla on Monday posted a company-compiled consensus calling for a steeper 15% drop to 422,850. Visible Alpha’s poll also points to full-year deliveries of about 1.65 million, down 7.8%, after U.S. federal EV tax credits ended in September; Tesla has tried to defend volumes with cheaper “Standard” versions of the Model Y and Model 3 and faces rising competition, including from lower-priced models expected from Chevrolet and Ford over the next two years. 1
The timing matters because Tesla’s stock still trades heavily on a growth narrative even as investors debate whether its push into robotaxis, humanoid robots and driver-assistance can offset slower EV demand. Another year of declining deliveries would raise the bar for the company’s non-auto ambitions to carry the valuation.
Tesla’s decision to publish a company-compiled “sell-side” consensus — estimates from brokerage and investment-bank analysts — puts the gap between expectations and reality in sharper focus. It also gives traders a clearer reference point for what would count as a beat or miss when the company posts its official tally.
The difference between the Visible Alpha survey and Tesla’s compiled estimate underscores how sensitive the stock can be to small shifts in sentiment. When expectations tighten, any shortfall can move the goalposts quickly.
For now, the stock’s pullback comes as parts of the market show signs of fatigue into year-end. “This is (not) the beginning of the end of the tech dominance, it’ll turn out to be a buying opportunity,” said Hank Smith, director and head of investment strategy at Haverford Trust; he added that valuations for top tech names look less challenging “excluding Tesla.” 2
The broader backdrop has not helped risk appetite. U.S. indexes drifted lower in the year’s final session with holiday-thinned liquidity, and markets are closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day. 3
Investors are now watching whether Tesla’s delivery print can clear the company-compiled consensus and narrow the gap to higher street estimates. A miss would keep pressure on the view that discounting is doing most of the work on volumes.
Traders will also parse what the delivery mix implies about demand for higher-priced trims versus the cheaper Standard models. More units at lower price points can stabilize volumes while tightening margins — an equation the market has punished before.
Competition remains a central risk as more automakers push into the mass-market EV segment. If rivals crowd the lower end of the market, Tesla may have to keep pricing aggressive to protect share.
Friday’s delivery update is the next immediate catalyst, and it is likely to set the tone for early 2026 trading in TSLA as investors weigh near-term demand against the company’s longer-dated autonomy bets.
