NEW YORK, January 1, 2026, 13:55 ET — Market closed.
U.S. real estate stocks ended 2025 on the back foot, with the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) down 0.9% on Wednesday at $40.35. The Vanguard Real Estate ETF (VNQ) fell 0.8% to $88.49. 1
The sector’s slide matters because real estate investment trusts, or REITs, are often treated as “bond proxies” — their dividend-heavy cash flows look less attractive when government yields rise. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed 3.5 basis points, or 0.035 percentage point, to 4.163% after a labor-market reading showed an unexpected drop in jobless-claims filings, a Reuters report said. 2
With U.S. markets closed on Thursday for New Year’s Day, investors head into the first 2026 trading day with rates still doing the heavy lifting for real estate valuations. Trading is set to resume on Friday, Jan. 2. 3
The broader market also finished lower in the year’s final session, with the S&P 500 down 0.74%, Reuters reported. Volumes were light in the holiday-shortened week, amplifying late-year repositioning. 4
Among large REIT names, warehouse landlord Prologis fell about 1%, while Realty Income and American Tower each ended modestly lower. The moves broadly tracked the rise in long-dated Treasury yields that tends to pressure rate-sensitive stocks.
In plain terms, higher Treasury yields raise the “discount rate” investors apply to future rent and fee income, which can pull down today’s stock prices. They can also lift borrowing costs for companies that fund acquisitions and development with debt.
Rate expectations are also shaping the 2026 narrative, as investors gauge whether the Federal Reserve can keep cutting without keeping longer-term yields elevated. That matters for property companies because financing costs ripple through everything from cap rates to development returns.
Bond investors are already warning that the ride could be bumpier. “I think next year will be trickier,” said Jimmy Chang, chief investment officer of the Rockefeller Global Family Office, in a Reuters report on the 2026 rates outlook. 5
That same report cited forecasts that put the 10-year yield ending 2026 around the mid-4% range, and said traders were pricing roughly 60 basis points of Fed easing in 2026. For REITs, a world where short rates fall but long rates stay firm can be a tougher mix than a clean “rates down” cycle. 5
XLRE also heads into 2026 stuck in a tight trading band, reflecting a market that is reluctant to commit ahead of the next stretch of data. Since late December, the fund has mostly oscillated around the $40 level, according to historical prices. 6
Before the next session, investors will watch for S&P Global’s final U.S. manufacturing PMI reading for December, which S&P Global said is due to be published on Jan. 2. Softening growth signals can push yields lower, while firmer readings tend to do the opposite. 7
The more closely watched ISM manufacturing PMI is scheduled for Jan. 5, with ISM citing a holiday delay for the January report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has said the December employment report is scheduled for Jan. 9, and the agency’s calendar warned that release dates are subject to change due to a lapse in government services; the Fed’s next policy meeting is set for Jan. 27-28. 8
For traders, the immediate tell remains rates: a sustained move higher in the 10-year yield tends to keep pressure on the group, while a pullback can quickly revive demand for dividend payers. On the chart, real estate bulls are watching whether XLRE can regain the upper end of its late-December range, while bears will focus on whether the $40 area holds.
