NEW YORK, January 2, 2026, 02:49 ET — Market closed
- Tesla shares last closed down about 1% at $449.72.
- Tesla published a company-compiled delivery consensus showing a lower bar for Q4.
- An SEC filing showed CEO Elon Musk gifted 210,699 Tesla shares to charities.
Tesla Inc. shares fell about 1% at the last close as investors braced for an imminent quarterly delivery update. The stock ended Wednesday, the final session of 2025, at $449.72 and traded between $449.21 and $458.39. U.S. markets reopen on Friday after the New Year’s Day holiday.
The electric-vehicle maker has put deliveries — vehicles handed to customers — front and center by publishing a company-compiled “consensus” of sell-side forecasts. Tesla’s table shows analysts expect about 422,850 deliveries in the fourth quarter and 13.4 gigawatt-hours of energy storage deployments, a measure of battery storage shipped. 1
A Reuters tally of analyst estimates pointed to a quarterly drop as the loss of U.S. tax credits and rising competition weigh on demand, even after Tesla rolled out cheaper “Standard” versions of the Model Y and Model 3 in October. “The fall will be driven largely by sales in North America and Europe,” Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu wrote in a note, while Reuters said Tesla was expected to publish its fourth-quarter and full-year production and delivery numbers on Friday. 2
Tesla’s own consensus sits below a separate Visible Alpha poll cited by Reuters, underscoring how wide the range has become going into the report. Traders tend to treat deliveries as an early scorecard because Tesla reports them ahead of earnings.
An SEC filing showed Chief Executive Elon Musk gifted 210,699 Tesla shares to charities on Dec. 30. The transaction was reported on Form 4, which tracks insider trades and gifts. 3
Competition remains in focus after China’s BYD reported its weakest sales growth in five years, but still said its 2025 electric-vehicle sales topped Tesla’s estimated total, Reuters reported on Thursday. BYD has leaned on overseas growth as domestic price wars bite. 4
Tesla’s slide came as U.S. stocks ended 2025 lower in thin holiday trading, with the Nasdaq down 0.8% on Dec. 31, according to the Associated Press. The tape has stayed sensitive to valuation debates around large-cap growth stocks. 5
Before the next session, investors will watch whether Tesla clears the bar it helped define with its published consensus. A result above the company-compiled forecast would ease near-term demand concerns; a miss would sharpen the focus on pricing and incentives.
Energy storage deployments will be another swing factor, with Tesla’s consensus pegging the quarter at 13.4 GWh. That business has become a more material piece of the story as vehicle demand cools.
Technically, the shares finished the last session near the bottom of the day’s $449–$458 range. A break below Wednesday’s low would put late-December support back on the radar, while a push above recent highs would suggest risk appetite is returning.
Tesla has not yet posted an earnings date for the quarter on its investor relations calendar. Any update on timing — and management’s outlook for 2026 volumes, pricing and autonomous-driving milestones — will be closely parsed. 6
