NEW YORK, Jan 2, 2026, 07:15 ET — Premarket
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), a gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF), last traded at $404.00 in premarket activity, up about 1.9% from its previous close of $396.31, tracking a fresh lift in bullion prices. 1
Spot gold climbed nearly 2% to $4,397.66 an ounce by 6:02 a.m. ET and U.S. gold futures for February delivery rose 1.6% to $4,409.90, after bullion hit a record $4,549.71 on Dec. 26, Reuters reported. Gold logged a 64% gain in 2025 — its strongest annual rise since 1979 — and FXTM analyst Lukman Otunuga said “bulls seem to be drawing strength from geopolitical risk and hopes of lower U.S. rates this year.” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said he targets $5,000 an ounce in 2026, citing lower inflation-adjusted yields and policy uncertainty, while Reuters noted the market’s late-2025 pullback was sharpened by profit-taking after CME raised margins on precious-metal futures. 2
That mix matters now because gold does not pay interest. When traders expect interest rates to fall, the “opportunity cost” of holding gold tends to ease compared with cash or bonds.
Investors often focus on real yields — bond yields after subtracting inflation — because they help explain how attractive it is to hold an asset that generates no income. Lower real yields can support demand for bullion as a hedge and portfolio diversifier.
Rival gold ETF iShares Gold Trust (IAU) showed a similar premarket lift, with its last premarket price at $82.75 versus $81.17 previously, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX), which holds shares of gold producers, had a last premarket price of $87.95 versus $85.77. 3
Futures “margins” are essentially the cash deposit required to hold a leveraged futures position. When exchanges lift margins, some traders cut positions to reduce capital tied up, which can amplify short-term swings.
Physical buying offered another support point. Gold flipped to premiums in India and China for the first time in about two months as local demand improved after a pullback from record levels, Reuters reported. 4
In India, dealers charged premiums of up to $15 an ounce over official domestic prices, compared with discounts as deep as $61 a week earlier, while domestic prices were around 136,700 rupees per 10 grams after a recent record near 140,465 rupees, Reuters said. 4
Gold-linked equities also firmed, with Newmont up 2.8% in premarket trading as gold and silver prices pushed higher, Barron’s reported. 5
Traders are now watching whether U.S. data restores clarity on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. A Reuters report said employment data due Jan. 9 and U.S. consumer price inflation on Jan. 13 loom as key near-term tests, with markets also eyeing the Fed’s late-January meeting even as futures point to little chance of a cut then and nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point cut in March. 6
For gold, the direction of rate expectations is the tell. Evidence of cooling growth or easing inflation can reinforce rate-cut bets and underpin bullion, while upside surprises risk pushing yields higher and taking some shine off the rally.
Technically, traders are also focused on whether spot gold can retake December’s record high around $4,550 after the year-end pullback. A failure to hold recent gains could invite another round of profit-taking, particularly in thin liquidity early in the year.
