NEW YORK, January 2, 2026, 13:10 ET — Regular session
- Chevron shares were higher in midday trading, outperforming a muted broader U.S. market.
- Traders are focused on OPEC+ output policy and the supply-demand balance after crude’s steep 2025 drop.
- Oil-market geopolitics and next week’s U.S. data docket are the near-term swing factors for energy names.
Chevron shares rose on Friday as energy stocks gained to start 2026. By 1:10 p.m. ET, Chevron Corp (CVX) was up 1.7% at $155.04, with about 3.0 million shares traded, after moving between $151.25 and $155.13. Exxon Mobil was up 1.4% and BP’s U.S.-listed shares gained 2.4%, while the Vanguard Energy ETF rose 1.6% and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF was little changed.
The move matters now because oil markets are heading into an OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, when the producer group is expected to keep its current output policy intact, according to people familiar with the discussions. OPEC+ is the coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, and its decisions can quickly reset expectations for global supply. 1
Crude prices started the year on the back foot after steep 2025 losses. Brent fell 55 cents to $60.29 a barrel by 11:16 a.m. ET and U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 53 cents at $56.89, as investors weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks. “Oil prices are locked in this long-term trading range, and there’s a sense that the market is going to be well supplied no matter what happens,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group. 2
Chevron is one of the biggest integrated oil companies, with upstream operations that produce oil and gas and downstream businesses that refine and market fuels and chemicals. That mix can cushion earnings in some commodity cycles, but investors still tend to take their cue from crude price direction and expectations for global supply discipline. 3
Friday’s gains in Chevron and peers came even as oil prices were lower on the day, a reminder that equity flows at the start of the year can be driven by positioning as much as spot crude. For large oil majors, investors also watch for signals that capital spending and shareholder payouts can stay resilient if oil prices remain rangebound.
Supply policy is the main near-term lever. Any surprise shift in OPEC+ plans—either a faster return of barrels to the market or a longer pause in planned increases—would likely ripple through oil futures first, then into the share prices of the biggest producers.
Geopolitics are the other tail risk. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and fresh U.S. pressure on Venezuela’s oil sector have kept supply headlines in play, even as the market narrative leans toward oversupply.
Beyond crude, investors are also tracking the January macro calendar after thin holiday trading. The U.S. jobs report due January 9 and consumer price inflation data due January 13 are among the releases that could shift expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates and, by extension, the U.S. dollar and demand forecasts for commodities. 4
For energy stocks, rate and dollar moves can matter almost as much as oil itself. A stronger dollar can weigh on dollar-priced commodities, while changing rate expectations can move investors toward or away from dividend-heavy sectors.
Traders will be watching Sunday’s OPEC+ outcome, any follow-through in crude prices, and whether energy’s early-year bid holds if broader equities remain choppy. For Chevron, the next leg is likely to hinge on whether the oil market can find a firmer floor without fresh demand surprises.
For now, CVX is trading near its session highs, with sentiment anchored to supply headlines as the first week of 2026 gets underway.
