NEW YORK, Jan 3, 2026, 11:58 ET — Market closed
- The Dow ended Friday higher to start 2026, outpacing a nearly flat Nasdaq.
- Industrials led the lift, while chip strength steadied sentiment after year-end volatility.
- The next tests are Jan. 9 U.S. jobs data, Jan. 13 inflation figures and big-bank earnings.
With U.S. markets closed on Saturday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average last ended Friday up 319.10 points, or 0.7%, at 48,382.39 in Wall Street’s first session of 2026. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 6,858.47, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.03% to 23,235.63, leaving all three major benchmarks down on the week. 1
The early-year tone matters because January often sets the first real test of risk appetite after thin holiday trading. Investors are also watching whether leadership broadens beyond mega-cap technology after a 2025 rally that left valuations sensitive to any stumble in growth or earnings expectations.
Friday’s move also showed how quickly the Dow can swing on a small group of names because it is price-weighted — higher-priced shares move the index more than lower-priced ones, regardless of company size. MarketWatch said Caterpillar rose $24.69 and Boeing gained $7.99, together accounting for about 201 points of the Dow’s rise, while Goldman Sachs, UnitedHealth and Chevron also boosted the index. 2
Chip stocks added to the risk-on bid, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up about 4%, Bloomberg reported. The bounce in semiconductors helped cushion broader indexes even as investors stayed selective in pricey technology names. 3
Tesla’s weaker delivery trend kept pressure on the tech complex. The electric-vehicle maker said annual deliveries fell about 8.6% in 2025 to 1.64 million, and Reuters reported China’s BYD overtook it as the world’s top EV seller; Tesla shares were down about 2% in afternoon trading. 4
That split — cyclicals and industrials up, parts of megacap tech still heavy — is what traders are watching for in early 2026. It can leave the Dow looking stronger than the broader market on days when a handful of industrial bellwethers take the lead.
Policy headlines are another moving part for risk sentiment. President Donald Trump signed a proclamation delaying increased tariffs on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities for a year, keeping a 25% tariff in place while postponing higher rates that were set to take effect on Jan. 1, the Associated Press reported. 5
Even when tariff changes do not hit Dow components directly, they can influence expectations for prices, consumer demand and corporate margins. Those are the same channels investors will be tracking as they reassess inflation risks and the path for interest rates.
Rate expectations remain central, particularly after the Federal Reserve cut rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, Reuters reported. Fed funds futures — derivatives that reflect where traders see the policy rate heading — suggested little chance of a cut at the late-January meeting but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March, and Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak, said, “The market is looking for direction.” 6
Before the next session on Monday, investors will position for a key run of U.S. data that can reprice those rate bets quickly. The Labor Department’s December employment report is scheduled for Jan. 9 at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the consumer price index on Jan. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET. 7
Earnings season is the other immediate catalyst for the Dow, which includes several major financials. JPMorgan Chase said it will report fourth-quarter results on Jan. 13, Bank of America lists its next quarterly earnings release for Jan. 14, and Goldman Sachs has said it plans to report on Jan. 15. 8
From a technical standpoint, the Dow’s ability to hold above the 48,000 handle will be a near-term focus as trading resumes. A stronger-than-expected jobs or inflation print would likely lift yields and pressure rate-sensitive stocks, while softening price pressures and steady earnings could keep buyers leaning into pullbacks.
